Lee County Forclosure Trends (bank owned, short sales, real estate)

[wellsme]

Here's an interesting video I found from the Southwest FL Real Estate Investors Assoc., statistics are looking better. Maybe Kevin can give us his valuable insight.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=K78lSLc1dMc

[nhkev]

Originally Posted by wellsme

Here's an interesting video I found from the Southwest FL Real Estate Investors Assoc., statistics are looking better. Maybe Kevin can give us his valuable insight.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=K78lSLc1dMc

there are only a handful of people that really know what they are talking about when it comes to foreclosures in Lee County and Jeff Tumbarello is one of them. He's not just reading an article in the paper he is going to the records and collecting the data first hand and analyzing it. his work is flawless.

The trend is undeniable and the forecast of where things are going which is why it is so frustrating when people say foreclosures are getting worse, if they did the research like I do they would know better. As much as I'd like to take it as great news I really believe that any statistics coming from real estate in the next couple months are unreliable.

this particular report though is tainted (not by SWFLREI but by the robo doc scandal)

I believe the trend is downward but it dropped too fast too quickly since the 2nd half of October the lis pendens was trending around 900 month so I'd believe 750. 381 is too low and will just come back as a higher number in the first quarter of the year. We saw the exact same thing a couple years ago when the gov't asked for a moratorium during the holidays.

by looking at the charts he has you can foresee that 12 months from now there will be drastically less homes coming to the market that are bank owned.

[nhkev]

I just did a quick little spot check for the first week in December to see how things are starting out. Lis pendens are still low (more than last month but still lower than normal) there were a few from bank of america but it was still noticeable that bank of america, JP morgan/chase were not where they normally would be, so the robo doc scandal still having an impact.

As far as bank reposessions those numbers seem a little more on par to where they should be. These are a little harder to decipher because sometimes with fannie mae loans , fannie mae will be the name on the record and sometimes the loan servicer will be on the record. Still appears that b of a and Jp morgan are missing but a big resurgence from HSBC and a continued presence from wells fargo.

[Dtronic]

Thanks for the breakdown.

[nhkev]

just did a mid month check for january and still the status quo when it comes to foreclosures as of today there has only been 147 bank repos this is trending to be the lowest since the bust began. There were also only 248 lis pendens but about 50 were homeowners associations for non payment of association fees. This goes to show why realtytrac is not a good source, not only do they count the assoc fees as a foreclosure,also non payment of re taxes, as well as foreclosures on 1st mort and 2nd mort and any time they get re-filed. This would also count vacant land any unpaid taxes,assoc fees or mortgages as well. One could clearly see how realtytrac can overstate the problem by counting the same property multiple times.

Still no presence of Bank of America (only 2 filings) or Jp morgan. a new company has dominated the lis pendens. It's going under the name Multi-bank.

This is a company that has purchased loan portfolio's from multiple (failed) banks. Many who have known people that haven't made a payment for awhile and have heard nothing from the lenders could be in this scenario and a likely to hear something soon.

It would seem that the robo doc scandal is still looming over Lee county courthouse. There was a superior court case ruling in Massachusetts that is probably going to set things back for awhile. The gist of it is someone was foreclosed on and the owner challenged that the holder of the note did not have the right to do so, because they did not file the proper assignment of mortgage showing ownership (very common). The court ruled in favor of the foreclosed homeowner. so it looks like they will get the home back. This has opened a big old can of worms which probably has a lot of lenders making sure they have all their paperwork in order before foreclosing. Many homeowners that have been foreclosed may now decide to challenge to get their homes back. (unlikely in Florida where property values have dropped so much)

Decembers sales (which won't officially come out til next week) looked pretty good compared to November about 1300 sales for lee county. Surprisingly inventories have stayed around the 2450 # in the cape. So if sales are up foreclosures are down , where is the inventory coming from????? Are there more short sales, flippers,banks releasing previously held REO's? Very murky time for Real estate.

[equalrightsforeveryone]

Of course the real estate investors association, will give you the unbiased information you seek.
NOT Foreclosures are in creasing in SWFL. This looks like bogus info to me.
Never run a cross a Agent that didn't tell me the time to Buy is RIGHT NOW.
The economy is not improving at any real rate so it's better to wait a few months.
And there are millions of homes that are under water. Caution is advised.

[equalrightsforeveryone]

Just to head off the usual bickering.

This from the most liberal news services around.
[B]Banks repossessed 1 million homes last year — and 2011 will be worse[/b]
Foreclosure problem will worsen in 2011 - Business - Real estate - msnbc.com

[nhkev]

Originally Posted by equalrightsforeveryone

Of course the real estate investors association, will give you the unbiased information you seek.
NOT Foreclosures are in creasing in SWFL. This looks like bogus info to me.
Never run a cross a Agent that didn't tell me the time to Buy is RIGHT NOW.
The economy is not improving at any real rate so it's better to wait a few months.
And there are millions of homes that are under water. Caution is advised.

On another thread you told a person "wait, another round of foreclosure's coming" the person replied back to you , asking why you thought that, you ignored it and never answered.

My info is the most reliable info you can get (from the courthouse documents themselves). But since you are skeptical I'll teach you what to do so you can check for youself. Go to this lee county clerk of courts website

http://http://apps.leeclerk.org/OR/Search.aspx (broken link)

then on the left hand side pick document search, from the documents you can pick lis pendens or certificate of title or whatever else is public record at the courthouse. select the dates you want to run, in my case I did jan 1,2011 till jan 18 2011 at the time I checked for lis pendens there were 247 I went through each record and there were 49 which were filed by homeowners associations and some misc other non mortgage related. Do the same thing but check for certificate of titles. Now compare the 247 mid month lis pendens to the 2600 in October of 2008 or the 1600 last year and tell us is that number higher or lower??? Good thing you post a national story to back up your data Go ahead tell me I'm wrong with my findings. I dare you to prove me wrong. You have made false statements about foreclosure's increasing time and time again. Nationally you are correct but locally you are very wrong. Anyone can do the same thing I just asked you to do and when they do they'll see you know nothing and make statements that you never back up. I let it go most of the time but when you challenge my research than I'm going to have to call you out for the fraud that you are. Again let's give you another chance to show you have character and see if your next post says you were wrong. But I won't hold my breath.

[nhkev]

here's an article from today's newspress dealing with the "local" foreclosure situation looks like it makes mention to a lot of my points, especially in the right margin of the page regarding last weeks filings, October 2008 #'s, and mention of the massachusetts case.

http://http://www.news-press.com/article/20110119/RE/101190387/1076/Banks-drop-foreclosures-in-Southwest-Florida (broken link)

couple things i don't particularly like about the article is they attribute the dismissals almost entirely to the robo doc scandal. What they did not do as far as research is that 35% of the backlog was already being dismissed before the scandal, many of the banks agreed recently that they will not continue working the foreclosure avenue if the owner was going through mediation. The other thing is banks have been streamlining their short sale processes which were designed to be able to clear that inventory and some realtors have been reporting some progress. Lastly sometimes cases are dismissed because someone that has claim to a property has not been legally notified. In some of these cases (including if the banks cannot establish original legal docs) these will not be re-filed.

[equalrightsforeveryone]

States were housing will rebound, plus the five states were the pain will linger.
"Florida. Tying California with a 6.0% mortgage delinquency rate but beating its cross-coast rival with a home-price decline of 46.9%, Florida also won't be doing well anytime soon. An unemployment rate of 11.7% doesn't help."

5 states where housing will rebound - home prices - MSN Money