2011 hard data and comment page (Lee: short sale, real estate, foreclosures)

[nhkev]

With the first month of the new year behind there will be new data trickling in over the next couple days and weeks. Some things that I think are relevant is also things that reflect this season. so some data from the last qtr of 2010 can also be put here.

http://http://www.news-press.com/article/20110201/BUSINESS/102010352/1075/Sunday-exclusive--Southwest-Florida-tax-receipts-rise (broken link)

The first data point is from a previous discussion comparing this season to last. So far it looks like there were more snowbirds/visitors that came in Oct and Nov.
it also looks like they were spending more than last year.

however I do not expect this trend to continue because of this

http://http://www.news-press.com/article/20110201/NEWS01/110201005/1075/Massive-storm-prompts-more-than-30-flight-cancellations-at-Southwest-Florida-International (broken link)


this is the 2nd snowiest year on record for the northeast 3x's the amount we got last year. the effect these storms have on the economy are huge. I would expect due to cancelled flights will have impact on everything from airport traffic, sales receipts, and even housing sales.

one thing to caution, one month of hard data doesn't mean a whole lot. for example say in february they post lower foreclosures and lower sales. One may look good and the other look bad. and then in march they say increase in foreclosures and increase in sales. again one may look bad and the other look good. When in fact the only thing that changed in either is that feb only has 28 days in the month and banks and courthouses may be closed for a holiday in it where march provides more opportunity to foreclose and close a real estate deal, so the per day avg could actually be better in the shorter month. Other things are that some times of the year are prone to certain seasonal trends for ex an increase in sales is expected in season and a decrease is expected during the summer. data is important but analyzing it is sometimes more important.

[coastal chic]

Thank you for the info. I can only speak from experience, so I'll share what I have seen this season so far as a home builder gauging traffic coming through our model homes. 1) Traffic is the best I've seen in 4 years. 2) The people coming through are buyers, not tire kickers. 3) People are paying cash for homes, not financing. 3) They WILL buy something this year, whether a new home or resale. 4) The majority of people are snowbirds.

I have not felt this positive about the market in years and I truly believe we have hit bottom and are on our way back up...albeit very slowly! A very wise mentor of mine said "when everyone else is doing it (investing in real estate) it's a bad time. When the majority keep saying "don't do it", it's a good time.

IN MY OPINION, we will see a "true" solid recovery if the interest rates continue to trend up. It happened in November/ December and sales shot through the roof. If that trend continues, I believe THAT is what will make people understand it's now or never and to jump off the fence. We shall see!

[Cobalt502]

Thank you for sharing this info and your opinions, this is what I was referring to in my post regarding good info being shared!

For what it is worth, we are from Wisconsin and are patiently waiting for word on a short sale we made an offer on, if it falls through we will still purchase a property in Lee County this year.

[equalrightsforeveryone]

"Program expands to help struggling state homeowners"
Full story
Program expands to help struggling state homeowners | news-press.com | The News-Press
This is the kind of thing that get us in to trouble in the first place.
Tax dollars being used to keep people in homes they can not afford, which creates just an other bubble.
This could actually be an incentive for some people not to pay their mortgage, and make people that DO pay their mortgage even though it is hard for them really angry.
Irresponsibility gets rewarded and the folks that do the right thing get punished. That is why we have a housing crisis and it will continue.

[nhkev]

I am amazed out how quick jeff gets these reports put together. this is a good example of the hard data shows one thing but there is a story behind it. On the surface the foreclosure numbers are very good but there is a market influence that is clearly having an effect and it is very unclear what the outcome will be.

Here's my opinion on the robo doc scandal in relationship to Lee County.... Foreclosures were already trending down. A major portion of the speculators who overpaid, bad loans that were written, and the never should be home owners of 2005-2007 have already been worked through the system. I know this because one of the things I used to track were not only the amount of foreclosure but who was being foreclosed upon. So a couple years ago I was seeing foreclosures that were written in 2004 and 2005 but from doing a search a while ago I was noticing the older "boom time" mortgages were gone. This is also being backed up by a sad statistic that a much higher percent of foreclosures are being done on homestead properties. This means that a good portion of the foreclosures are know a result of unemployment and general economy related. So there are some potentially good things that come of the timing of the robo doc scandal.

If the banks can't foreclose they will be more open to letting a struggling owner sell at short sale.
The bank may be more willing to work with a struggling borrower that wants to stay in their homes by rewriting their mortgage. by doing this they get a new clean mortgage note.
The bank may not be able to foreclose due to not finding appropriate paperwork.
This could give time to an owner who would normally be able to stay in their homes but is going through a layoff due to the economy time to get a job get back on their feet and then do a modification of their loan.

Of course there are going to be plenty of situations that the lenders will get their acts together and refile and eventually foreclose. In a long term trend we are going to see a gradual reduction in foreclosures, then a break in the line , and then a restart at levels consistent of where they were in august or september. but overall I think this will "save" some homes from going into foreclosure. there is nothing about this scandal that will increase them.

http://www.swflreia.com/

you have to scroll down a little to get the video for january 2011 foreclosures

[nhkev]

after I checked to see if my link to jeff's site worked I scrolled down a little past the jan 2011 foreclosure report and jeff has a radio interview (sound only) posted next, very interesting. I think most will gather from listening that Jeff is a very smart guy and has a lot of credibility locally and beyond.

[hiknapster]

I called Bank of America last Friday. I don't want to sit around and get a nasty surprise. Their empathy was amazing. They are definitely working with people. If we get a sweet enough deal we may never sell the house.

I want to say to anyone that doesn't know, we are in this predicament because we started a business last year, and we had road construction around our business. That was suppose to end in October and now they say April. By the way, my husband, the business, another business and the road construction were the lead story on the television news yesterday. I will be happy to furnish a link to all my friends that are interested.

[buyfloridadeals]

Originally Posted by equalrightsforeveryone

"Program expands to help struggling state homeowners"
Full story
Program expands to help struggling state homeowners | news-press.com | The News-Press
This is the kind of thing that get us in to trouble in the first place.
Tax dollars being used to keep people in homes they can not afford, which creates just an other bubble.
This could actually be an incentive for some people not to pay their mortgage, and make people that DO pay their mortgage even though it is hard for them really angry.
Irresponsibility gets rewarded and the folks that do the right thing get punished. That is why we have a housing crisis and it will continue.

You are right...we have entered a catch 22 so complicated..how will we get out? Although as an Agent, I have seen some very sad situations where hard working people who purchased within their means have lost all their equity through no fault of their own and feel trapped, some choose to walk. Then there are those who were darn right greedy (institutions and individuals alike!)

I hope we can find a way out of this mess soon...

[equalrightsforeveryone]

Originally Posted by buyfloridadeals

You are right...we have entered a catch 22 so complicated..how will we get out? Although as an Agent, I have seen some very sad situations where hard working people who purchased within their means have lost all their equity through no fault of their own and feel trapped, some choose to walk. Then there are those who were darn right greedy (institutions and individuals alike!)

I hope we can find a way out of this mess soon...

So do I.
It seems that everything they are doing is just making things go round in circles.

[equalrightsforeveryone]

Here is some hard data, watch this and you will understand why the country is in trouble and it is not getting better.
Visualizing Obama's budget cuts. [VIDEO]