Homes going up or Down in Price? (Cape Coral, Sarasota: hotel, home builder)

[rikoshaprl]

The downward trend remains, And unemployment is still rising.

"Housing market: Foreclosures rise in August"

Housing market: Foreclosures rise in August - Yahoo! Finance (http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Housing-market-Foreclosures-cnnm-1351134910.html?x=0 - broken link)


I don't see anything in this article about SW Florida. And the info is complied from Realty Traks' misleading facts.

[nhkev]

both articles reference realty trac so you might as well throw it away. Realty trac reported something like 1300 foreclosure filings in lee county , but yet there were only around 500. Who cares about their ranking when their info in flawed to begin with.

Brookings institute is a bunch of smart people but what did they use for criteria to determine house prices? It certainly wasn't all home sales for the first and second qtr.

If they use case schiller, I believe this is what case schiller does... it takes into account the same house that has traded hands in the same year. it doesn't take into account all sales.

even though I think both articles are useless, the one equal posted is surprisingly positive... says foreclosures are down 33% year over year and bank repos are down. again based off flawed info but this is why the forum requires posting links so he can't just spin an excerpt from an article.

The most important number is the inventory. it has stayed about 1425 single family homes in Cape coral for the last few months and is probably going to stay around there for the next few months. there may be slight shifts month to month but if the inventory is stable and supply and demand are equal balance then there really should not be any move up or down to prices.

[jdahunt]

Just returned another trip to Cape Coral-Fort Myers area looking for a vacation home. Once again not one property that I've been tracking has seen an increase......all and similar properties have continued to drop and I think are going to keep going down.

My realtor told me that there is about 250,000 additional homes coming to the market that the banks have been holding back.....I am going to wait until I see that happen.

There is a lot of interest up north here of properties in florida but most people are concerned with what the next year is going to bring so they are holding off.

[stahltkd]

Originally Posted by jdahunt

Just returned another trip to Cape Coral-Fort Myers area looking for a vacation home. Once again not one property that I've been tracking has seen an increase......all and similar properties have continued to drop and I think are going to keep going down.

My realtor told me that there is about 250,000 additional homes coming to the market that the banks have been holding back.....I am going to wait until I see that happen.

There is a lot of interest up north here of properties in florida but most people are concerned with what the next year is going to bring so they are holding off.

So there's going to be as many houses coming to market as there are people in Fort Myers and Cape Coral combined??

[justNancy]

Originally Posted by nhkev

both articles reference realty trac so you might as well throw it away. Realty trac reported something like 1300 foreclosure filings in lee county , but yet there were only around 500. Who cares about their ranking when their info in flawed to begin with.

I never pay much attention to those articles, just what's in front of me. I mean, if I'm watching the news and the meteorologist says it's raining, and I go outside and it's clear, I need to rely on what I know to be true.

However, I'm suddenly seeing a lot of listings on web sites like Homepath. I'm not sure if 119 is normal for Fannie Mae or if it's up-to-date.

Originally Posted by jdahunt

My realtor told me that there is about 250,000 additional homes coming to the market that the banks have been holding back.....I am going to wait until I see that happen.

You must have misunderstood. The total number of bank owned foreclosures is estimated to be 700,000. That's a national figure.

[equalrightsforeveryone]

Originally Posted by jdahunt

Just returned another trip to Cape Coral-Fort Myers area looking for a vacation home. Once again not one property that I've been tracking has seen an increase......all and similar properties have continued to drop and I think are going to keep going down.

My realtor told me that there is about 250,000 additional homes coming to the market that the banks have been holding back.....I am going to wait until I see that happen.

There is a lot of interest up north here of properties in florida but most people are concerned with what the next year is going to bring so they are holding off.

I think that is a very smart move. Just keep an eye on it, and don't believe the propaganda. You will get there!

[nhkev]

Originally Posted by justNancy

I never pay much attention to those articles, just what's in front of me. I mean, if I'm watching the news and the meteorologist says it's raining, and I go outside and it's clear, I need to rely on what I know to be true.

However, I'm suddenly seeing a lot of listings on web sites like Homepath. I'm not sure if 119 is normal for Fannie Mae or if it's up-to-date.

You must have misunderstood. The total number of bank owned foreclosures is estimated to be 700,000. That's a national figure.

the estimate of 700,000 is a very skewed number. The way they came up with that is they took the number of bank reposessions, and compared to what is on the mls and 700,000 is the difference. What they left out of their equation is banks also sell "bulk sales" to hedge funds. So no one knows that number so they just forget about it and report a much bigger scarier number. Go back for more than a year and you can find posts of the next big wave of foreclosures, at some point people need to make decisions based on what is.

There will not be another wave of foreclosures in Lee county. I have already proven this over the last two months. Lee county clerk of courts has had a small uptick in the amount of foreclosure activity but instead of coming to the market the cases got backlogged. The system itself limits how many can hit the market.

What you saw last month for foreclosure hitting the market is it, no more can get processed, so when season hits and there are more buyers there will be more buyers than foreclosure coming out of the court. The only way that this can change is if the court is able to be more productive (such as a rocket docket) but the funding at the court house is being cut , not increased. If you are waiting for the next wave, it aint gonna happen.

[nhkev]

Originally Posted by jdahunt

Just returned another trip to Cape Coral-Fort Myers area looking for a vacation home. Once again not one property that I've been tracking has seen an increase......all and similar properties have continued to drop and I think are going to keep going down.

My realtor told me that there is about 250,000 additional homes coming to the market that the banks have been holding back.....I am going to wait until I see that happen.

There is a lot of interest up north here of properties in florida but most people are concerned with what the next year is going to bring so they are holding off.

just out of curiosity, what type of property are you looking at and at what price point? I don't follow every segment of the market every day. but I will tell you this. In Cape Coral, houses that were built after 2004 that are over 2000 sq ft with no chinese drywall were selling for $85k 2 yrs ago, and there were a lot of them available. Now those same houses are selling for $125k+ and there are very few in comparison.
Also I was looking for newer than 2004 gulf access, pool home and 2 yrs ago there were a lot selling for $225k, Now there are only a small handful under $300k. So what is it that you are looking at (not doubting your observations) but if you're looking at very high end properties or pieces of crap that no one wants than prices could very well be dropping.

there have been over 30,000 homes sold in the last 2 yrs in lee county, the avg days on market is around 90 days, and they are selling around 95% of asking price, so if the houses you've been tracking aren't selling then they are obviously priced too high.

fyi just did an MLS search for a gulf access pool home 2000+ sq ft, 2004 newer under $300k there was only 1 and it had chinese drywall.

[justNancy]

Originally Posted by nhkev

just out of curiosity, what type of property are you looking at and at what price point? I don't follow every segment of the market every day. but I will tell you this. In Cape Coral, houses that were built after 2004 that are over 2000 sq ft with no chinese drywall were selling for $85k 2 yrs ago, and there were a lot of them available. Now those same houses are selling for $125k+ and there are very few in comparison.

First, I agree with you about the 2000 sf homes that were selling a few years ago. However, the increase you mentioned above doesn't necessarily mean the values increased. Most of those 2000 sf houses listed for $85,000 were trashed and needed a lot of work, Some foreclosures were even missing the kitchen cabinets! Replacing the A/C can cost $7,000 or more. So if someone purchased a home for $85,000 and tiled the floor, added appliances, landscaping, air, etc. and it sells for $125,000 he isn't making a making a huge profit, and the house didn't increase in value by $40,000 either. It means that, in excellent move-in condition, it might have been worth close to $125,000 anyway.

[nhkev]

Back in november of 2008, which I guess is almost 3 yrs now. There were a bunch and I mean a big bunch of these homes that were move in ready,never lived in fully applianced, including washer and dryer. When these got bought up then people moved to 1800 sq ft home, then to 1400, then houses that needed a little work, houses that were older, etc. So from my first hand experience to buy these houses now in move in ready condition for 125k is an increase in price.