When to buy ? (Fort Myers: short sales, 2009, renter)

[nhkev]

time to buy-- here's why. prices started to fall after june 2006 was considered the peak. Prices continued to fall with NO BUYERS 2007 volume and 2008 volume were awful and so the prices continued to fall. The prices got low enough that people started to buy I think we're looking at 8-9 months consecutive of double digit volume increases year over year and some months were triple digit volume increase. Inventories are down from 21 month supply to 4.5 month supply and last month median home prices did increase- if there are buyers then there is no reason to lower prices anymore. there are no new homes being built and foreclosure (still high) but have been trending lower. you hear it from these posts that there are multiple offers going on properties and houses are selling for more than asking price. I have been watching this market very closely and the amount of gulf access homes under 300k is a fraction of what was availble a year ago. Whenever there's a foreclosure property it's marked as pending within 4 days of hitting mls all of these numbers can be found on florida's national association of realtors. days on market are 90 day avg and most houses are selling within 90% of asking price.. this market has found it's equillibrium

[nhkev]

you also have to account for pent up demand , houses were too expensive before for first time home buyers , now they are definetly affordable , interest rates are low for a fixed rate and they get the 8k first time home buyer credit.... which is good for anyone who hasn't owned a home in the last 3 years....even though the unemployment rate is high there are still 90% of people working and a lot of snow birds that are not empolyment dependant, so the foreclosures do only have so far to go as long as people that can afford to stay in their houses do.

[justNancy]

10% unemployment does not mean 90% of the people are working. Also, many people are very under employed. This has been common in Florida for years. There are plenty of people who work full time but still qualify for Food Stamps and other assistance like Medicaid.

A large percentage of the snowbirds you refer to lost 1/2 of their income retirement in the stock market. Many of the "baby boomers" also purchased rental property they cannot sell or rent, which is one reason there are so many foreclosures in areas like Ft Lauderdale & Miami. This market hasn't just affected the working class either. As the housing bubble continued to expand, before it burst an awful lot of folks decided to get in on the action and do some flipping. Unfortunately for them, the prices fell before they could resell and make a profit. I can send you a list of foreclosures with million dollar homes on it.

Last year a well respected publication, Barrons, said that the housing market had hit bottom.

Bottom's Up: This Real-Estate Rout May Be Short-Lived - Barrons.com

Keep in mind Barrons also predicted that gold would be $5,000 an ounce by 2009.

Today the Yahoo headlines is about a Forbes list of the 25 cities where buying might not be such a hot idea.
http://realestate.yahoo.com/promo/ri...WVzdC1wbGFjZXM-

Again, this is just the opinion of some "experts" (maybe the same experts who said to invest in the market last year) but on the list are 8 Florida cities including Fort Myers, Orlando, Tampa, Ft Lauderdale, Miami, Port St Lucie, Ocala and Lakeland. Doesn't make Florida look like a great place in which to invest your money, does it?

I think this is the same article published by Forbes on March 31 below. Anyway, this is an interesting article.
http://www.forbes.com/2009/03/31/ris...eclosures.html

[nhkev]

you're right those articles are opinions. visit florida's national association of realtors and look at facts such as how many housing units sold in 2007 and 1st half of 2008 then compare that to the units selling over the last 9 months.. check out how many building permits have been issued. Check out foreclosure rates and you will see this volume of units sold up HUGE, building permits almost non existent, foreclosure rates trending down. inventory levels 21 months supply down to 4.5 months supply. also it has days on market and sales to list price ratio's I don't know how anyone can be an real estate "expert" but two rules regarding economics #1 is supply and demand and there are certain bell weathers such as the statistics that I have mentioned that usually forecasts regarding the health of a real estate market the other is the affordability index which is great in cape coral right now. these houses are selling and it is a fact that a new homebuyer spends 3x what an existing homeowner spends on consumer goods in a year.. #2 is buy low sell high... now prices may go down a little more, they may stay low for a while, but that's just day to day , month to month, I just purchased a gulf access property for 68k that is maybe 5 mins to open water on a wide canal do you think in 10 yrs it'll be worth more or less???? for the person that bought it for $400k 3yrs ago they bought high sold low... for every loser there is a winner. People can have whatever opinions they want but I use data to make my money decisions and with low interest rates and the 8k credit it just makes things more in my favor.

[justNancy]

Originally Posted by nhkev

you're right those articles are opinions. visit florida's national association of realtors.....

Exactly


But that's why I posted this thread. So what? About 130 homes sold in 2 or 3 days in Coral Lakes in March 08. Now the homeowners can't get rid of them at the so-called "half price" they paid. Sorry for posting these link agains, but it will save you the effort.

March 20, 2008
FOLLOW UP: Cape Coral homes for half price! | WINK News - Southwest Florida | Top Stories

March 20, 2009
More Coral Lakes residents mull suit for foreign drywall - cape-coral-daily-breeze.com | News, sports, community info. - Cape Coral Daily Breeze

So yes, home sales have skyrocketed in a year, but not home prices. Unemployment is also continuing to rise.

Maybe we are talking apples and oranges here. You are talking about getting a cheap home to visit in the winter and I'm talking about a primary resident. In either case, people need to know they are making a good investment. Homes are moving quickly, but the next week there are more foreclosures. To me that means the economy is not improving, just that the Haves are getting more and the Have Nots are losing more.

[SallyGStein]

The points on both sides seem valid.

But, the "haves" always buy property, and it's plainly smart never to attempt to pick a bottom in any market- but no market goes and stays down in a straight line- and I can tell you that the smart money is actively but somewhat quietly buying heretofore terribly expensive waterfront, beachfront, canalfront property---even acreage, and sitting on it, or renting it if they can or choose.

You BUY when markets are SOFT, and don't worry whether the market is likely to fall another 8-12 percent even- if you can afford to hang you should do it- if you can't, then it would be unwise- if you can afford to pay cash, that's better- if you can afford the debt service and hold on to it, it doesn't matter, you're still paying for the property, and values in Florida have been known to be resilient to say the least, OVER TIME, and I for one, believe strongly that within 10 years, prices should jump far more than 20%----which is way more YIELD than a US Treasury 10 year bond, a AA Corporate Bond, or even most Junk Bonds.

Buy low, and extend the holding period....just buy LOCATION

[Chicken Wing]

Don't forget about the $8,000 tax credit for first time homebuyers if you buy before December 1, 2009.

[hiknapster]

Yep. As you can see, I was right and NYBill was wrong. The prices came down a lot in the past year. A LOT.

HOWEVER, under certain circumstances, it would NOW be a good time to buy.

If you want to be a snowbird, then buy. If you are retired, can sell your home up north first, or are so wealthy that it won't matter, then buy. If you have a job transfer, then buy if you are fairly certain you will be there for a few years.

Some of these homes are going for the price of a lot.

But you need to get your boots on the ground and make sure it is in a decent area and there are no mold and Chinese drywall issues. Unfortunately, that's going to be a major factor, due to Hurricane Charley.

The area is still inundated with foreclosures. Don't let anyone pressure you. But the tax benefit and the fact that they have to be close to the bottom is a decent reason to buy. My goodness, they are practically giving the houses away. Just know there is a reason for that.

[LewLew]

I just want to say that if someone buys in the right area, they will do well. My house went up in value since last year, nearly 30K.

Not all news is so bad. If someone wants to buy, and thinks they will be in their home for a while, then this is a great time to buy.

If people only ever view their "home" as an investment to make huge money on....then we'll never be in better shape in this country's housing market. A home is where you want to live, a respit, somewhere to raise a family. So what if the market ebbs and flows for a couple more years unless you are a speculator. If you buy what you can afford, put down a decent down payment....you'll be fine in the long run...and probably even in the very short run.

[nhkev]

Originally Posted by LewLew

I just want to say that if someone buys in the right area, they will do well. My house went up in value since last year, nearly 30K.

Not all news is so bad. If someone wants to buy, and thinks they will be in their home for a while, then this is a great time to buy.

If people only ever view their "home" as an investment to make huge money on....then we'll never be in better shape in this country's housing market. A home is where you want to live, a respit, somewhere to raise a family. So what if the market ebbs and flows for a couple more years unless you are a speculator. If you buy what you can afford, put down a decent down payment....you'll be fine in the long run...and probably even in the very short run.

I could not agree with you more if you don't like the area you're going to be unhappy no matter what price you pay. and if you love the area and plan on holding a property for awhile. you'll probably be pretty happy