41% increase in sales. Anybody noticed this "micro-boom"? (Cape Coral: mortgage, real estate)

[outsider1]

Several regional papers say there was a 41% increase in real estate sales in April this year, compared to April 2007. Anyone noticed any changes in your particular areas? Looks like it's mostly banks unloading properties for 40%-60%of what their where during the peak of the boom. It would be interesting to see who the buyers are. Retirees? 50cents on a dollar type of investors? Northerners selling high up there, buying for cash down here and expecting to make it on minimum wage since they no longer need to make mortgage payments?

[essessemm]

Exactly which regional papers are saying this?

[outsider1]

Here's one example:

"Along with Fort Myers-Cape Coral and Fort Pierce-Port St. Lucie, the two local markets were the only ones statewide to post rising sales in April. Fort Myers-Cape Coral saw a 41 percent increase, driven by aggressive pricing by banks to get foreclosed properties off their books, real estate agents and other market observers there say"

HeraldTribune.com - Real Estate - Real estate and homes news stories about Sarasota, Manatee and Charlotte counties in Florida, from the newspapers of record. - HeraldTribune.com

And there was an entire article dedicated to Cape in yesterday's issue.

[121804]

Originally Posted by outsider1

Several regional papers say there was a 41% increase in real estate sales in April this year, compared to April 2007. Anyone noticed any changes in your particular areas? Looks like it's mostly banks unloading properties for 40%-60%of what their where during the peak of the boom. It would be interesting to see who the buyers are. Retirees? 50cents on a dollar type of investors? Northerners selling high up there, buying for cash down here and expecting to make it on minimum wage since they no longer need to make mortgage payments?

What is your source or sources?

Seems to be a very generous number & highly unlikely if even remotely based on fact.

[TANaples]

My neighbor is moving out today. He had his house on the market for over a year at $520,000. He sold it to snowbirds from Pa. for $430,000. From what he told me they have been renting in this development for years and decided to semi retire and spend six months here and six months up north. They own their own business and their son is in line to run the business up north eventually.

My neighbors are moving to Port St. Lucie from Naples in order to be closer to their friends who moved here from NY years ago.

It all happened very, very quickly.

[mytimenow]

I wouldn't get too excited about a purported increase in % of sales. The Naples paper last week also reported that Cape Coral/Lehigh Acres now #1 in foreclosures in the nation. Not going to find the article, but I think the Lee County Clerk reported that also in April (maybe May?) saw double foreclosures of prior year. You could check Ft Myers and Naples papers for more info, it was just last week, I believe.

[TANaples]

Originally Posted by mytimenow

I wouldn't get too excited about a purported increase in % of sales. The Naples paper last week also reported that Cape Coral/Lehigh Acres now #1 in foreclosures in the nation. Not going to find the article, but I think the Lee County Clerk reported that also in April (maybe May?) saw double foreclosures of prior year. You could check Ft Myers and Naples papers for more info, it was just last week, I believe.

We are just about ready to walk away from the condo we own. Two others in the same condo feel the same way. We cannot sell it. We cannot even rent it.

[PoincianaFlorida]

Originally Posted by outsider1

Several regional papers say there was a 41% increase in real estate sales in April this year, compared to April 2007 ...

Newspapers too often are tools for corporate entities. In this case, the entity is the National Association of Realtors (NAR), which seeks to bolster sales by reducing buyer fear.

NAR actively skews it numbers via a method I call super-cycling. For example, the current economic recession began about October 2006, at which point the market value of homes began to decrease. These values fell chronically over that two-year period but NAR market value statistics did not reflect month-to-month drops in any month during this period.

When it had become too obvious to hide, NAR tried super-cycling statistics to show that home values tumbled rapidly over a six-month period when in fact market values fell slowly each month over two years. Since no one noticed (well, except for me), NAR appears to believe that they have carte blanche to do it again and at will.

Now that the summer season is here, NAR is pushing in the opposite direction, once again skewing its statistics to show a trend of increased sales by on-the-fence buyers when in fact buyers have for the most part been hanging out on the fence. As in the post-9/11 years up leading up to 2006, the majority of buyers in today's market are speculators and investors, none of whom should be permitted to purchase residential housing stock, as that activity reduces the likelihood of homeownership by valid American families. (It pits people against business interests.)

Housing values are still falling in key states like California and Florida. Therefore, unless housing values improve this summer, you will see NAR super-cycling statistics again in the fall. And why not? They did it before and no one noticed.

[JSnFla]

yeah right, that article doesnt apply to florida. prices will be crashing here for many many years, theres NO reason for prices to stabilize due to the nature of floridas existance

[compelled to reply]

Originally Posted by JSnFla

theres NO reason for prices to stabilize due to the nature of floridas existance

In order for people to move to Florida, businesses have to move to Florida. In order for businesses to move to Florida, people have to move to Florida. In order for people to move to Florida, price have to come down for them to even take a chance, and certain quality of life factors have to improve locally. Then, tax cuts and incentives need to be given for the businesses to move there. Then, you have a successful Florida. Everything else is just numbers. Well, that's my overly simplified view anyway.