Will the snowbirds still come this fall? (Orlando, Naples: hoa, condos)

[gfplux]

Given the bad economic news we hear every day, what are the opinions of people on this forum whether this will affect snowbirds this Fall.
A great many business's rely on the extra business they bring to the area.

[yachtcare]

I'm one of those businesses. Keep in mind a VERY important factor this year, is the election cycle. I've been here thru other election cycles, and the season preceeding the election is typically an underperformer. Add that to the generally poor economy this year, and we've got a real stinker on our hands.
My "season" usually starts off with October 1st, goes great guns til Dec. 15th, then picks up again on or about the 15th of January. Last year started fine, even had a couple of record breaking months. Business never returned after the holidays however.
My prediction for this season...We'll see the usual upward spike in business come the first of October, but it will be lighter than usual, and short lived, people just doing the absolute minimum as they return from up north. Until the election in November. After that things will pick up again, but will still be slower than normal, while people take in the reality of what just happened with the election, and develop their new strategies for the coming administration. What I'm really waiting to see is what happens in Mid January. If business comes back, we'll be OK. If it stays as flat as it did this year, we're doomed.....
In other words, survive this year, then thrive or die next.

[yachtcare]

An afterthought, There are different types of "snowbirds" to consider as well. The type I deal with, are well heeled, and have houses here. They WILL come, and they WILL spend $, and they WILL stay here from October thru May/June/July. It's more a question of how much they will spend. The more tourist oriented types, will still be reeling from the rising costs of everything from groceries to fuel, and may be faced with pending or recent job loss. I wont be looking for many of them to show up. There will be a huge influx, as there already is, of the foreign tourists, as they have plenty of our dollars in their bank accounts that they want to purge before it becomes worthless.

[Sunnydee]

I think they will come after the election. Once you get used to leaving the cold behind it's hard to weather the winter. Best wishes to all!

[yachtcare]

Not trying to be nasty, or flippant..But once you get used to living in a house, it's hard to get used to living under a bridge as well. But more and more people are finding themselves in that position every day. In the end, the amount of dollars(real or perceived) in your pocket dictates ALL. Prepare for the worst, hope for the best. The economy in SW Fl is sputtering, but it hasnt stalled, YET. If things arent moving forward by February 1st, a total collapse is all but assured.

[faithfulFrank]

Interesting thread.
I rent my home to snowbirds. I turned down over 100 couples this last year for the 2008-2009 season, and have people interested in renting already for the 2010 season, although it is not booked yet.

IMHO, anyone who can afford to leave their northern house and rent another house for 3-5 months to escape the cold are well off enough to not be effected too much by the current economy. How they spend their money once they are here is another story.....but I would think they would come. I'm sure my home will never be vacant during those months anyway.

Frank D.

[TANaples]

Originally Posted by yachtcare

An afterthought, There are different types of "snowbirds" to consider as well. The type I deal with, are well heeled, and have houses here. They WILL come, and they WILL spend $, and they WILL stay here from October thru May/June/July. It's more a question of how much they will spend. The more tourist oriented types, will still be reeling from the rising costs of everything from groceries to fuel, and may be faced with pending or recent job loss. I wont be looking for many of them to show up. There will be a huge influx, as there already is, of the foreign tourists, as they have plenty of our dollars in their bank accounts that they want to purge before it becomes worthless.

Both of my neighbors on either side of me are snowbirds. One couple are from the UK and the other from PA. As you so correctly stated, they both OWN their homes here. They also both are semi retired and own their own businesses where they are from. Yep, they will come. They said to me, "See you in September/December".

It is the tourists and snowbirds who RENT who may be missing in action. I have been trying to rent out our condo for now and the upcoming "season" since May. Dead as a doornail.

[plantlover]

I wonder if the high cost of heating fuel will bring people down where it is warmer during at least part of this winter.........

[TANaples]

Originally Posted by faithfulFrank

Interesting thread.
I rent my home to snowbirds. I turned down over 100 couples this last year for the 2008-2009 season, and have people interested in renting already for the 2010 season, although it is not booked yet.

IMHO, anyone who can afford to leave their northern house and rent another house for 3-5 months to escape the cold are well off enough to not be effected too much by the current economy. How they spend their money once they are here is another story.....but I would think they would come. I'm sure my home will never be vacant during those months anyway.

Frank D.

Here in Naples, the homes on/near the beach renting for $5,000+ a month will probably still have takers.

It is the smaller homes and condos which used to be in the $2,000 seasonal range, not within walking distance to the beach, which are in over abundance now. You have to remember many of these owners really want to SELL, but are just trying to rent them out until they can find a buyer. Normally, many of these would not even be on the rental market.

[faithfulFrank]

Originally Posted by TANaples

Here in Naples, the homes on/near the beach renting for $5,000+ a month will probably still have takers.

It is the smaller homes and condos which used to be in the $2,000 seasonal range, not within walking distance to the beach, which are in over abundance now. You have to remember many of these owners really want to SELL, but are just trying to rent them out until they can find a buyer. Normally, many of these would not even be on the rental market.

Understood.
Florida is so diverse, and I am new even to the little of it I am starting to know.....
Here in Leesburg, the market is not quite so bad. New homes are still being built. etc. While prices ARE lower then perhaps 2 years ago, this area seems to be doing well still. There is a certain market here that attracts retirees to these 55+ communities here between Orlando and The Villages. I have my home on VRBO, and am continually get people wanting it during the Jan-April season....I do not know if they come for the golf or the fishing, but it is amazing how many calls and e-mails I get.....and those are the ones who do not bother to look at the online calendar to see that it is already rented. I've considered raising my rental price.

Our only stipulation is that our HOA asks that all rentals be on a monthly basis.....no shorter then one month. Mant of the renters here end up buying after a few years...others are content to just keep renting every year....a large percentage do come back every year.

Frank D.