Latest Foreclosure Report (Tampa, Cape Coral, Sarasota: for sale, real estate, 2009)

[justNancy]

I guess this is good news. Although the Fort Myers/Cape Coral Metro area is #5 in the country for the number of foreclosures, the number has dropped by 20%.

Fort Myers-Cape Coral ranks No. 5 in October U.S. foreclosures » Marco Eagle

1 out of every 92 homes has received a notice of default, according to this article. In the Naples/Marco area, filings actually went up in October.

I'm not sure how accurate the numbers are, however. The Marco Eagle reports

" The report is based on default notices, auction sale notices and bank repossessions. "

[kroeran]

my neighbourhood seems to be defying gravity

Paseo, Fort Myers average and median listing prices - Trulia.com

[justNancy]

Sorry, but I doubt if there are any neighborhoods in Fort Myers or the entire state of Florida where the average sales price for a property has increased by 61%. If most of the sales were townhouses priced at $220,000 one month and then a large, single family home was sold for $352,000 the next month, then that would reflect a 60% increase. However, it doesn't mean the price of the properties has gone up.

However, you do live in a lovely community.

I came back to give you an example. There is a 3 bedroom home listed in Paseo on Rosalinda listed for $429,000. This house sold in Jan 2007 for $654,200. It's also been on the market for over a year and the price keeps going down. A 4 bedroom home just sold on the same street for $277,000.

I'm sure Paseo is a beautiful, upscale community, but when an analysis is based on incomplete information, it is often unreliable. If a room was full of people and each of them had a dog, would you say that the average mammal in the room has 3 legs?

[nhkev]

Originally Posted by justNancy

I guess this is good news. Although the Fort Myers/Cape Coral Metro area is #5 in the country for the number of foreclosures, the number has dropped by 20%.

Fort Myers-Cape Coral ranks No. 5 in October U.S. foreclosures » Marco Eagle

1 out of every 92 homes has received a notice of default, according to this article. In the Naples/Marco area, filings actually went up in October.

I'm not sure how accurate the numbers are, however. The Marco Eagle reports

" The report is based on default notices, auction sale notices and bank repossessions. "

Even though realtytrac is the company that a lot of national media use as a resource I do not.

The only thing I can say is that they do use the same data every month so comparing over a long term it can help spot trends. The problem is they track all foreclosure notices. Lee county is backlogged so the could have a productive month in working on backlogs and would appear to have an increase in foreclosures when it is just an increase in productivity.

The other thing is that because florida is a judicial state the foreclosure process is slower which allows more time for short sales and loan modifications... what this has done in the past ( I haven't validated recently) was that out of Florida's foreclosure filings only half of the amount went to bank repo compared to California and Nevada.

The foreclosure filing that I am most interested in at this stage of the game is Initial filing or "Lis Pendens". I haven't looked at the official number put out by lee county registrar of deeds Charlie Green. But it looked like october was going to be slighty up over september, For whatever reason there were 4 days between October 10 and 15th that a huge amount of new filings happened.

In my state tax deed auction are done Columbus day weekend, not sure if it is the same there.

Overall initial foreclosure filings have been avg 1600 a month compared to 2600 a year ago. They seem to splil 33% each to cape coral, fort myers, and lehigh.

With new filings and working on backlogged cases they are still putting on about 400 month of bank repos per town per month. The number of homes coming on to the market due to foreclosure really hasn't changed. With the decrease in new filings have just given the courthouse more time to work on backlog.

[justNancy]

Thanks nhkev. I posted the link as an FYI since I'm currently living on the other coast and haven't actually seen homes in Lee County since May, although I check online. I had only planned to be here for 2 months, but stuff happens. Anyway, I've seen a lot of short sales on the market. I spoke to one real estate agent in another county who told me 2/3rds of all current listings are short sales. That seems a bit high for any community, but it's difficult to tell from the ads unless it's specifically stated in the description. Yesterday I was in Port St Lucie and 2 of the 4 homes I viewed were short sales. Many of these short sales are a last attempt to get an offer before the owner gives up. I've noticed a lot of properties changing from short sale to foreclosure over the past year.

Regarding my last comment, I had a difficult time writing it, since I didn't want to sound negative or argumentative. I don't live in Paseo or even toured homes for sale (a little above my price range) I certainly wasn't passing judgment, since it looks like a very nice place to live. I was only talking about the misleading charts based on "average" sales.

I'm currently in Vero Beach and there are multi-million $$ homes near/on the beach and inexpensive condos on US 1. Where I'm staying there are a few 1 bedroom condos selling for under $25,000! However, if 10 condos sell for $25,000 or even 10 homes sell for $150,000, the foreclosure listed for $8 million (down from $14 million) is going to throw off the average price of a home when it sells. I agree there are some communities that are doing better overall than others, but every area in Florida has been hurt by the housing slump.

[kroeran]

"Regarding my last comment, I had a difficult time writing it, since I didn't want to sound negative or argumentative. I don't live in Paseo or even toured homes for sale (a little above my price range) I certainly wasn't passing judgment, since it looks like a very nice place to live. I was only talking about the misleading charts based on "average" sales."

no offense taken...good analysis. The price per sq ft chart trend is indeed revealing.

for the more sophisticated buyer, the aftermarket short sales on mls are very worthwhile to look at.

[krktoday]

I got a notice 2 week's ago the condo I rent and have for four month's is in forclosure. I asked management if I could move to another unit and they told me no it would be breaking my lease. So even though the guy rented it to me taking my deposit knowing full well he wasn't going to pay for it I can't move out before they post a 3 day on my door.

[hiknapster]

Passeo is not holding its own. The developer was building as the market was crashing.

The stats that Nancy pointed aren't anomalies, either. There's at least 60 resells in there. Incredible amount of short sales. Units that were bought in 2007 are estimated at half.

I don't think you want to compete with developer KC Stock. By the way, even he is not immune. Besides being a builder he owns a yacht company. He's only completed a third of the properties and he is selling about 14 units right now.

I really don't think you believe what you wrote, kroeran.

[justNancy]

Originally Posted by kroeran

my neighbourhood seems to be defying gravity

Paseo, Fort Myers average and median listing prices - Trulia.com

This is an interesting article about Stock. One reason you might not be feeling the effects of the housing slump as much as some communities is that Paseo lowered its prices by 35% in 2007.

Gulf Coast Business Review, Business News Leader for Tampa Bay, Sarasota, Fort Myers, Naples || Section || Taking Stock

"But Stock was among the earliest to recognize the severity of the downturn and it lowered prices by 35% in 2007. Although the company beat its competitors on the way down, residents of its communities complained that they had paid more than their newest neighbors."

[Dreamy46]

Originally Posted by justNancy

This is an interesting article about Stock. One reason you might not be feeling the effects of the housing slump as much as some communities is that Paseo lowered its prices by 35% in 2007.

Gulf Coast Business Review, Business News Leader for Tampa Bay, Sarasota, Fort Myers, Naples || Section || Taking Stock

"But Stock was among the earliest to recognize the severity of the downturn and it lowered prices by 35% in 2007. Although the company beat its competitors on the way down, residents of its communities complained that they had paid more than their newest neighbors."

paseo fort myers kroeran - Google Search

"I thought I was doing well picking up a "deposit walk away" for 50% of peak retail value (180k vs 400k)...but now there is a similar unit listed on mls for 125k as a short sale."