Cape Coral Real Estate nowhere near recovery....... (Fort Myers, Naples: houses, neighborhood)

[Cereshedge]

You are right as one of us tempeted to move south as when I woke up a week or so ago when you were experiencing 50 degree days it was -2. This should be required reading as you said.

But with rents so cheap it hard to buy no?

[nhkev]

Originally Posted by yachtcare

A few years back, I took a trip into Buffalo to pick up a E Bay purchase. As soon as I crossed from Ohio into NY state on the interstate, I had to stop to pay a toll.

I got off at the next exit for a break. I had to PAY to use a rest room. For the 12 hours I spent in that state I was nickle and dimed half to death. Not a place I will ever visit by choice, again.

Hik, glad things seem to be getting back to normal around Knoxville.
But I am reminded that "business as usual" is what created the mess in the first place. There are also ominous warnings that the "original mess" hasnt been cleaned up yet, and we are happily getting back to the business of creating a new one........

I'm holding to my prediction of a double dip, the second dip likely to be bigger than the first. SW Florida will fare no better than it has thus far.

Yachtcare has prognosticated.......

well if you look back at some of your previous post you talked about the dow being at 3000 by years end..... the year ended and the prediction was only off by about 7500. Good thing you're not my stock broker.

[nhkev]

warren buffet was interviewed this morning. This was his take on the housing market. (these are not direct quotes but a synopsis).

About 5 million homes changed hands in 2009. These buyers were largely better off than previous buyers as they bought the houses cheaper, had larger down payments, stricter underwriting guidelines, had low interest rates.

Banks are in better shape now than a year ago. The bad loans have largely worked through the system, banks are better capitalized with less leverage.


Now this is me... Is housing facing some headwinds , yes. I also believe that interest rates are headed up and I think 6% is pretty accurate. 6% is not a bad rate by any means is still historically low.

I am in the process of buying another house and I research what the seller has for an outstanding mortgage to know my leverage. 90% of the time when the mortgage had a variable rate the rate has gone Down when it reset. The resets are not going to be as bad as predicted.

As far as helocs go. It is a problem for the bank not necessarily the home owner.

If a person owns a house and it's value is now $200k.... if they have a 1st mortgage at $225k and a heloc for say $100k the heloc technically becomes an unsecured loan as there is no equity to support it. A heloc bank would incur costs to foreclose but get nothing in return. It only becomes an issue if there is equity in the property. There of course will be some exceptions but as a rule the heloc will only foreclose if it makes business sense.

The problem with helocs right now is they are slowing down/ stopping short sales. they will no longer agree to release the liens unless there is something in it for them and the primary lien holders feel they are losing too much as it is.

My prediction NO Double dip housing will head higher. This administration is 100% committed to a recovery in housing. every skeptic says " if gov't program ends" they will not end they will extend or try something new.

[hiknapster]

Originally Posted by yachtcare

Hik, glad things seem to be getting back to normal around Knoxville.
But I am reminded that "business as usual" is what created the mess in the first place. There are also ominous warnings that the "original mess" hasnt been cleaned up yet, and we are happily getting back to the business of creating a new one........

Sorry. Not to belabor it but no, business as usual in Knoxville, and many other places, is a beautiful thing. We didn't see anything like you all down in Cape Coral. In fact, a little over a year ago, local talk radio was convinced that people were making up the whole "bad economy" stuff. We had a semi-rough spot for nine months.



Yachtcare has prognosticated.......

And I hope they don't take that bit of delightful funny and analyze it, draw diagrams and finally take out a golf club and beat if to death. Talk about sucking the life out of something. Of course, I probably just opened the floodgate. Then again, they'll do it, anyway.

[hiknapster]

Originally Posted by nhkev

warren buffet was interviewed this morning. This was his take on the housing market. (these are not direct quotes but a synopsis).

About 5 million homes changed hands in 2009. These buyers were largely better off than previous buyers as they bought the houses cheaper, had larger down payments, stricter underwriting guidelines, had low interest rates.

Banks are in better shape now than a year ago. The bad loans have largely worked through the system, banks are better capitalized with less leverage.


Now this is me... Is housing facing some headwinds , yes. I also believe that interest rates are headed up and I think 6% is pretty accurate. 6% is not a bad rate by any means is still historically low.

I am in the process of buying another house and I research what the seller has for an outstanding mortgage to know my leverage. 90% of the time when the mortgage had a variable rate the rate has gone Down when it reset. The resets are not going to be as bad as predicted.

As far as helocs go. It is a problem for the bank not necessarily the home owner.

If a person owns a house and it's value is now $200k.... if they have a 1st mortgage at $225k and a heloc for say $100k the heloc technically becomes an unsecured loan as there is no equity to support it. A heloc bank would incur costs to foreclose but get nothing in return. It only becomes an issue if there is equity in the property. There of course will be some exceptions but as a rule the heloc will only foreclose if it makes business sense.

The problem with helocs right now is they are slowing down/ stopping short sales. they will no longer agree to release the liens unless there is something in it for them and the primary lien holders feel they are losing too much as it is.

My prediction NO Double dip housing will head higher. This administration is 100% committed to a recovery in housing. every skeptic says " if gov't program ends" they will not end they will extend or try something new.

I think HELOCs are a HUGE problem and one that the pundits didn't see coming until after they had hit.

Of course they are foreclosing on them because the banks gave out money against homes that are now worth less. Even here in Knoxville where there isn't a boom.

One of the first homes that I looked at, back in 2008, the house was bought for $70,000 and they were into it for $115,000. And their idea of renovation was laughable. I have no idea where the money actually went. And yes, they foreclosed. And yes, someone bought it for $65,000. Wasn't me, though.

But I agree, the government will prop this thing up. No doubt about it.

Cape Coral and surroundings are doing more of the same, but they have always only had one page of the playbook.

[nhkev]

Originally Posted by hiknapster

I'm glad they are building. I know. It sounds crazy, but a lot of those foreclosures are ugly and they were just thrown together. Some with drywall. It sounds like he plans on creating different neighborhoods and a different style of architecture. I hope he's hiring. I'm going to tell my cousin, the drywaller.

What Cape Coral historical sites are you referring to?

They may be breaking ground on a develpment but I believe they only intend on building 2 model homes and the rest will be built as sold.

[Compression]

Originally Posted by nhkev

My prediction NO Double dip housing will head higher. This administration is 100% committed to a recovery in housing. every skeptic says " if gov't program ends" they will not end they will extend or try something new.

I think the administration was commited to artificially propping up the stock market as well. Likely the reason it didnt go to 3000 as I said it would. The only reason any 'profits" are being shown is the fact that most of these companies shed their workforce thru layoffs. What will they do to show profit in the future?

So they will artificially prop up the housing market as well. I agree.

I spoke with a realtor over breakfast this morning. What I took away from the conversation was that properties are moving, but they wouldnt be if it werent for the tax credits, and the other various "programs" made available from the govt. While the rest of whats sold is "distressed" for pennies on the dollar.

Overall, I think it's a good thing. At least something is happening. And any good realtor will tell you....activity begets activity.....but even this particular realtor who falls into the "sunshine and puppy dogs" category admited that the second quarter this year is the one to watch out for......

Of course it appears that we may have a changing political landscape, or the threat of it, working this year also. That could cause some positive, or adverse reactions as well. It's gonna be an interesting year.

We shall see, what we will see. But I'll stick with the double dip forecast. I'm nobody's broker, so nobody should be listening to me.

Yachtcare has spoken.......

[yoko]

Who disagrees that house prices will continue to fall:

Everyone making money off you!

1. Real estate agents
2. Mortgage broker
3. Banks
4. Appraiser paid by mortgage brokers & banks
5. Newspapers and websites avdertising realtors
6. Federal government
7. House flippers

[twobums]

8. home owners stuck with over priced houses, hoping to dupe some newbie from up north that a 3/2/2 is worth a penny more than 60K in CC.

[Compression]

Originally Posted by hiknapster

But I agree, the government will prop this thing up. No doubt about it.

While there are myriads of gubmint programs to prop things up.....

It appears Cape Coral has been passed over for the second round of funding for cleaning up those foreclosed houses.

We're one of the hardest hit areas in the nation. What does the gubmint know about this area that would have them pull the funding? My speculation is it has something to do with CDW.


City loses funding for Neighborhood Stabilization project - NBC-2.com WBBH News for Fort Myers, Cape Coral & Naples, Florida


Yachtcare wonders.......