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To be fair, Cape Coral is just one area in Lee County that has been so severely impacted by the housing bubble implosion.... The NYT article addressed CC but it could've applied to just about anywhere in Lee.
Recovery in 10 years seems hopeful at best ~ but let's hope for the best and prepare for the worst.
More declines expected in SW FL markets | Florida Real Estate Journal (http://www.frej.net/news/southwest-florida/2009-12-15/more-declines-expected-sw-fl-markets - broken link)
just to be fair the article you posted is in regards mostly to commercial real estate (no argument from me that it is in decline).. but it says the residential real estate market is up qtr over qtr by 6% -- that is 24% annual. The existing home sales figures get released today for 4th qtr and I am expecting similar results.
The article also says foreclosures are down in residential which would challenge another article you posted "1in 7 homes in foreclosure" which makes a link between rising foreclosures and falling home prices.... well the inverse should be true as well.
Yes I do read all the articles that people post, but do I put a lot of weight on articles that base their opinions off information that was compiled in October 2008 when cape coral had record foreclosures??? No I don't because approximately 10,000 houses have changed hands since that time in the county. what was true then may no longer be true now.
Same goes with the option arm resets. In most markets where volume has been non existent the mortgages are still out there. But most information regarding these mortgages where from 5 yrs ago the amount that are still out there in lee county has been drastically reduced.
I've said this before and it is only common sense.... there is an unemployment problem, homeowners that were upside down, there were homeowners that took out adjustable rate mortgages, there were helocs, there were flippers that bailed when values went down. But you can only be foreclosed upon ONCE. If you had an arm with a heloc behind and were upside down and lost your job it is like having cancer, aids, heart problems, Any one can kill you but you only die once.
the rate of initial foreclosure filings will tell you exactly where you are in the cycle, not a reporter that is basing their opinion off data from 5 yrs ago.
you have been saying the next shoe to drop will be commercial real estate. Personally I don't know a lot about it but based on your last article rising foreclosures, higher vacancy rates, less income coming in. would lead me that your basis seems solid.
Many of the articles you post hold water at a national level. I am getting ready to close on a property in another state and it is a world of difference in what I am seeing compared to lee county. In most markets there is still low volume, foreclosures are on the increase, prices are still declining. I am not bullish on real estate nationally, I am certainly bearish on commercial real estate. But based off data my opinion is lee county is a lot farther along in the healing process than most areas of the country.
I am not locked in to any position. If data starts to change, so do I. if volume drops, foreclosures rise, prices start to decline then I change my opinion.
The things that concern me most about lee county residential is this.... there are too many people buying the houses to flip, or rent out. The driver of real estate is inventory. if someone buys just to put it back on it is bad for the market because it will likely increase marketing times and will clog up lending due to not appraising out. There are not enough renters to support the rental market right now. and unemployment because these are the should be year round primary residence that would give the area long term stability.
Good points, nhkev and certainly an interesting & civil discussion
soooo..... home sales tumbling would be a bad sign and higher sales would be a good sign
Florida's Existing Home, Condo Sales Up in December 2009: PRNewswire Business News - MSN Money (http://news.moneycentral.msn.com/provider/providerarticle.aspx?feed=PR&date=20100125&id=1105 4837 - broken link)
just as a little tidbit january 2009 median home price is virtually identical to what december 2009 home price was so it is pretty assumable that if the market continues it trend line that next month " could" be the first yr over yr price increase.
Yes I do read all the articles that people post, but do I put a lot of weight on articles that base their opinions off information that was compiled in October 2008 when cape coral had record foreclosures??? No I don't because approximately 10,000 houses have changed hands since that time in the county. what was true then may no longer be true now.
Same goes with the option arm resets. In most markets where volume has been non existent the mortgages are still out there. But most information regarding these mortgages where from 5 yrs ago the amount that are still out there in lee county has been drastically reduced.
I've said this before and it is only common sense.... there is an unemployment problem, homeowners that were upside down, there were homeowners that took out adjustable rate mortgages, there were helocs, there were flippers that bailed when values went down. But you can only be foreclosed upon ONCE. If you had an arm with a heloc behind and were upside down and lost your job it is like having cancer, aids, heart problems, Any one can kill you but you only die once.
the rate of initial foreclosure filings will tell you exactly where you are in the cycle, not a reporter that is basing their opinion off data from 5 yrs ago.
you have been saying the next shoe to drop will be commercial real estate. Personally I don't know a lot about it but based on your last article rising foreclosures, higher vacancy rates, less income coming in. would lead me that your basis seems solid.
Many of the articles you post hold water at a national level. I am getting ready to close on a property in another state and it is a world of difference in what I am seeing compared to lee county. In most markets there is still low volume, foreclosures are on the increase, prices are still declining. I am not bullish on real estate nationally, I am certainly bearish on commercial real estate. But based off data my opinion is lee county is a lot farther along in the healing process than most areas of the country.
I am not locked in to any position. If data starts to change, so do I. if volume drops, foreclosures rise, prices start to decline then I change my opinion.
The things that concern me most about lee county residential is this.... there are too many people buying the houses to flip, or rent out. The driver of real estate is inventory. if someone buys just to put it back on it is bad for the market because it will likely increase marketing times and will clog up lending due to not appraising out. There are not enough renters to support the rental market right now. and unemployment because these are the should be year round primary residence that would give the area long term stability.
Good points all Kev. But those which I bolded give me some cause for concern...
I still know, several, four to be exact, persons whom have not made a mtg payment in over a year, and a few more closing in on that time frame, none of which have heard word one from the bank.
Do those stats show up anywhere in the data that you do a very diligent job of analyzing?(not asking to be facecious, really just dont know) If not wouldnt it seem as though the extend and pretend games are still being played? If they have been reported and analyzed, then I would assume your opinion has taken that factor into account as well. If not, what happens to the "real" data when you factor those numbers into the reported data you've been looking at?
Of course there may be no way of knowing what that number is. And I suppose it's possible I know ALL of the persons that this scenario applies too, but I wouldnt bet on it.
When it comes down to it, I feel there are still alot more "ghosts" in the Lee county machine(and in fairness, on a national basis, as well), than are being talked about in "official data" releases.
***********
Yachtcare is cynical when it comes to things the govt and others that have things to sell, tell him.......
there is no way to know total numbers especially if there are some ghosts involved. But there are some numbers that can be estimated. I don't have all these numbers in front of me while I type but you will get the idea.
If someone told me the option arms were going to be a problem, then what you should see is a large majority of foreclosure filings originating from mortgages that were written 5 yrs ago. The hypothesis of it being a 400 billion dollar problem may be a good one but to test the theory you would need to see some evidence to support it.
Back in October I went through the foreclosures that were filed at Lee counties registry of deeds and I wasn't seeing anything that would support it.
There are two other things at work here
1. Florida is a recourse state so just because someone is upside down they are less likely to walk away than a non recourse state.
2. Florida is a judicial state which slows down foreclosures. There is a group ( that is a lot smarter than i am) have studied what the courthouse can handle. and that is 83 filings per day and 50 auctions per day. What this means is no waves just 50 a day max. There can be a steady supply for some time but it is not enough to keep up with current demand.
if current demand changes than so does the inventory. It is kind of like the analogy "you don't have to outrun a bear, only the person that's with you"
"There were 463 condo resales in Fort Myers-Cape Coral, up 118 percent from 212 in December 2008. The median price was $120,800, down 18 percent from $147,000 a year earlier.
1,487 single-family resales were reported in Fort Myers-Cape Coral, up 40 percent from 1,064 in the same month a year earlier. The median price of sales last month was $94,500, down 12 percent from $106,900 in December 2008
Foreclosures and other distressed sales continue to influence the median price. "
Anyone who bought a "bargain" this time last year is already sitting on a very painful loss.
In Cape Coral prices are still high compare to incomes & rents.
And because interest rates have no where to go but up, prices have nowhere to go but down.
Living here full time, working full time, has given yachtcare, yoko, myself and others access to real life stories from every day people who are living what might be described as a nightmare.
Think of living in a home where you never know, day to day, if the bank finally forecloses. No jobs, no prospect of a job and unemployment soon to run out.... forget about health care, you just hope & pray nobody in the house gets sick or hurt. While you pray, make sure you pray your car does not need a major repair or new tires... also pray that your fridge/AC/roof is in good working order. Tell the kids, 'Sorry, no braces, dance class, soccer, field trips'.. well, you get the idea.
The list goes on & on.
Go ahead and blame the foolish people for buying a 3/2/2... for believing in employee loyalty, for their own ignorance.
But remember they could be your mom, brother, cousin, best friend.... or maybe even you.
Living here full time, working full time, has given yachtcare, yoko, myself and others access to real life stories from every day people who are living what might be described as a nightmare.
Think of living in a home where you never know, day to day, if the bank finally forecloses. No jobs, no prospect of a job and unemployment soon to run out.... forget about health care, you just hope & pray nobody in the house gets sick or hurt. While you pray, make sure you pray your car does not need a major repair or new tires... also pray that your fridge/AC/roof is in good working order. Tell the kids, 'Sorry, no braces, dance class, soccer, field trips'.. well, you get the idea.
The list goes on & on.
Go ahead and blame the foolish people for buying a 3/2/2... for believing in employee loyalty, for their own ignorance.
But remember they could be your mom, brother, cousin, best friend.... or maybe even you.
And who pays for the greed?
“Working in conjunction with the Southwest Cape Mom's Club, CCCF is helping out 159 separate children who are, by definition, homeless.
Last year the foundation helped 131 children who were in need of backpacks and supplies, while the first year saw it helping children who had not quite reached the level of homelessness the organization is seeing today.
This is the third year the CCCF has undertaken this particular mission. “
Cape Coral as are many areas in the US are going through tough times and it seems this area may take longer to recover than others, I think most of us get it, however, let's ante up the stakes, have you written/contacted your elected officials, advocacy groups, anyone?
I'd like to know what measures (those that post the same thing over and over) are you taking to change your situation?
An Excerpt:
The difference between proactive people and reactive people is that proactive people take action, they take initiative, and they come up with ideas to get things done despite the conditions they are in. Reactive people, on the other hand, usually are the ones to react to a situation rather than take initiative to create a situation. Thus, they are constantly under the influence of the conditions around them, stopping them from taking action and getting things done.
An example of this might be today's economy. The economy has been worse than ever since last year. There are many people who do nothing but react to the economy in unhealthy and negative ways, but do nothing about. They might complain all day about how bad the economy is in laying off people, how bad it is on home foreclosures, how bad it is on their business, and how it's only going to get worse from here on out. They react by letting the social conditions of news media effect what they can do, by falling into sorrow or anger as well as passing on a negative vibe to others around them.
In a bad economy, proactive people realize that economy is out of control, but they do not go into an obsessive panic mode. They take a look at the situation and ask themselves what they will do to respond to the situation in the best way that they can. They look at the situation from different angles and choose the most appropriate method. In the meantime, they also create new ideas to help solve the problem at hand. It doesn't necessarily mean that their solution will always work, but they don't sit around waiting, wallowing in sorrow and fear; they find a way to do something about it.
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