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View Poll Results: San Diego to join Los Angeles-Long Beach-Riverside CSA?
Yes 7 25.93%
No 20 74.07%
Voters: 27. You may not vote on this poll

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Old 07-13-2010, 03:26 PM
 
Location: The City
22,341 posts, read 32,208,951 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by 18Montclair View Post
Not if we're going by the commuter numbers which is how areas are combined. It doesnt look like NY and Philly will ever combine if the requirement remains 15% of all workers from Philly working in NY. Right now its probably not even 1%.

LA+SD suffer much the same fate. Today if its over 2% Id be surprised.

People are too fixated on development but that has very litte to do with how areas are combined.

LA stands a much better chance of adding Bakersfield.


I actually just read the 42 page document on MSA and CSA designation this week

No it is only a rquirement for one county to reach this. The rationale is that Mercer, which in the last census moved to the NYC CSA(which had less than half the commuter interaction relative to the overall Trenton/Philly MSA) but it missed from the Philly MSA, may actually qualify again, meaning 25% of people commuting into another county from counties already qualifying in a MSA qualify the county to that MSA and trump CSAs, but most recent data would show 24.8% inflow in Mercer from the Philly MSA (needs only .2% which with the new Merrill Lynch facility in Mercer which I believe currently employs ~10,000 at the campus and was built since the last census, btw this is only 2.2 miles from the PA border of Bucks county) Plus Mercer has grown in movement into the NY MSA (which would continue to connect the two as a CSA), it is actually more likely than you believe. The reason why Trenton left in the first place was the closure of the US Steel plant in Fairless Hills PA, which at one time employed nearly 60K, amny of whom made the 5 mile commute from Mercer county.

Ok back to SD and LA

it could happen but do not see this as likely, the military base is a barrier that keeps people from commuting cohesively
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Old 07-13-2010, 03:53 PM
 
Location: Zurich, Switzerland/ Piedmont, CA
32,397 posts, read 55,250,153 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by kidphilly View Post
I actually just read the 42 page document on MSA and CSA designation this week

No it is only a rquirement for one county to reach this. The rationale is that Mercer, which in the last census moved to the NYC CSA(which had less than half the commuter interaction relative to the overall Trenton/Philly MSA) but it missed from the Philly MSA, may actually qualify again, meaning 25% of people commuting into another county from counties already qualifying in a MSA qualify the county to that MSA and trump CSAs, but most recent data would show 24.8% inflow in Mercer from the Philly MSA (needs only .2% which with the new Merrill Lynch facility in Mercer which I believe currently employs ~10,000 at the campus and was built since the last census, btw this is only 2.2 miles from the PA border of Bucks county) Plus Mercer has grown in movement into the NY MSA (which would continue to connect the two as a CSA), it is actually more likely than you believe. The reason why Trenton left in the first place was the closure of the US Steel plant in Fairless Hills PA, which at one time employed nearly 60K, amny of whom made the 5 mile commute from Mercer county.
Interesting. Its interesting how small hiccups in local economies can mark the difference for entire counties being discounted from one MSA or CSA.

Also, 25%+ is the threshold for adding a county to an MSA, but it takes only 15-24.999% of commuters going from one MSA to another also warrants adding the smaller MSA to the larger CSA.

Quote:
Ok back to SD and LA

it could happen but do not see this as likely, the military base is a barrier that keeps people from commuting cohesively
The closest candidate for combining in California right now is Stockton being added to the Bay Area. At last count, 13% of its workers were employed in the Bay Area. We'll see if that has topped 15% by now.

As far as SD and LA, SD would have to send hundreds of thousands of people to LA for work and that seems highly unlikely for the foreseeable future.
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Old 07-13-2010, 04:30 PM
 
291 posts, read 653,704 times
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It really is one megalopolis extending from Ventura County/Santa Barbara to Rosarito Beach in Mexico...at least 19 million people or so.
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Old 07-13-2010, 04:41 PM
 
Location: Zurich, Switzerland/ Piedmont, CA
32,397 posts, read 55,250,153 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by PittNewbie View Post
It really is one megalopolis extending from Ventura County/Santa Barbara to Rosarito Beach in Mexico...at least 19 million people or so.
A megalopolis is not the same thing as a Metropolitan Area or a Combined Statistical Area.

Megalopolis is defined by contiguous development but is NOT recognized by the US govt when it comes to gathering data for the purpose of deciding on expenditures, which is a huge reason for the Census in the first place.

Metro and CSAs are far more oriented towards defining regions based on actual connectivity and interdependence.
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Old 07-13-2010, 05:12 PM
 
Location: The City
22,341 posts, read 32,208,951 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by 18Montclair View Post
Interesting. Its interesting how small hiccups in local economies can mark the difference for entire counties being discounted from one MSA or CSA.

Also, 25%+ is the threshold for adding a county to an MSA, but it takes only 15-24.999% of commuters going from one MSA to another also warrants adding the smaller MSA to the larger CSA.



The closest candidate for combining in California right now is Stockton being added to the Bay Area. At last count, 13% of its workers were employed in the Bay Area. We'll see if that has topped 15% by now.

As far as SD and LA, SD would have to send hundreds of thousands of people to LA for work and that seems highly unlikely for the foreseeable future.

Yes the steel plant closure is the single reason for the movement. Oddly the interplay of Mercer county is nearly 47% with the Philly MSA if you look at commuters both dirctions, but that is two Philly MSA counties accounting for 32% (so below the single county 25% MSA) and Mercer sending 14.8% to Philly MSA (as an aside it sent 15.2% to the NY MSA) but only a total of 21.9% interplay overall (less than half of the total commuters of what the unlinked Philly MSA interplay is). But Mercer if relinked to the philly MSA (which is actually more likely than i thought after reading the criteria because of the New finance facility heavally employed by Bucks County) will continue to be the CSA link to the NY MSA, would be kind of wierd honestly but i more say this because I truly believe people downplay the interaction of the two metros. Not necessariy NYC to Philly but Bucks to Mercer to Somerset etc. People commute in every direction and huge employment centers everywhere, Not sure if you have seen the 287 corrider to your west in Jersey but is loaded with one Pharma and telcom headquarter after another, literally

And on the CSA it is not 15-25% of the total, it is 15-25% of one county from the smaller MSA (Trenton placed back to original MSA Philadelphia) to the larger MSA (NYC), which in the case of Mercer and cojoining in my example meets the criteria, however odd that would be. It almost did last census actually, except the Steel plant closed

Philly also lost the Atlantic county NJ MSA (still part of the CSA but that futher dropped Cape May county from the CSA becuase it only links to the CSA and not MSA) because of the casinos and commuter pattern changes, even if subtle overall, which reduced the % through the pine barens into Camden which existed prior. Those two movements alone dropped the MSA by nearly a million people (And CSA by 1.4 million) with just about zero change in the fabric or makeup so yes us philly folks scream loudly as these criteria have had odd impacts here, it lost two MSAs and three metros in total, oddly enough with zero change to fabric of the area just on census designation

Sorry back to your regualrly scheduled program

Last edited by kidphilly; 07-13-2010 at 05:25 PM..
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Old 07-13-2010, 05:44 PM
 
Location: Los Angeles
636 posts, read 1,341,347 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by kidphilly View Post
I actually just read the 42 page document on MSA and CSA designation this week

No it is only a rquirement for one county to reach this. The rationale is that Mercer, which in the last census moved to the NYC CSA(which had less than half the commuter interaction relative to the overall Trenton/Philly MSA) but it missed from the Philly MSA, may actually qualify again, meaning 25% of people commuting into another county from counties already qualifying in a MSA qualify the county to that MSA and trump CSAs, but most recent data would show 24.8% inflow in Mercer from the Philly MSA (needs only .2% which with the new Merrill Lynch facility in Mercer which I believe currently employs ~10,000 at the campus and was built since the last census, btw this is only 2.2 miles from the PA border of Bucks county) Plus Mercer has grown in movement into the NY MSA (which would continue to connect the two as a CSA), it is actually more likely than you believe. The reason why Trenton left in the first place was the closure of the US Steel plant in Fairless Hills PA, which at one time employed nearly 60K, amny of whom made the 5 mile commute from Mercer county.

Ok back to SD and LA

it could happen but do not see this as likely, the military base is a barrier that keeps people from commuting cohesively
Philly-NYC people, stop hijacking my thread! :P.

A lot of you people bring up Camp Pendleton (Military Base), but really there is more then one way from San Diego to the Southland. Development tends to be more focused on the I-15 corridor that goes from San Diego to Riverside via Temecula and Murrieta rather then the I-5 thru Orange County. If anything it seems plausible that people from Riverside County will commute to San Diego County for jobs via the continues development along the I-15.
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Old 07-13-2010, 06:06 PM
 
Location: Mission Viejo, CA
2,498 posts, read 10,297,445 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by S.D. Calif View Post
Philly-NYC people, stop hijacking my thread! :P.

A lot of you people bring up Camp Pendleton (Military Base), but really there is more then one way from San Diego to the Southland. Development tends to be more focused on the I-15 corridor that goes from San Diego to Riverside via Temecula and Murrieta rather then the I-5 thru Orange County. If anything it seems plausible that people from Riverside County will commute to San Diego County for jobs via the continues development along the I-15.
Overall for Riverside County though at the 2000 census, most people leaving the county headed to neighboring San Bernardino County (60,400 people), Orange County (51,000 people), and L.A. County (36,802 people). San Diego only got 18,461 of those leaving Riverside County in 2000. Temecula and Murrieta are the notable exceptions in deep southern Riverside County sending many to San Diego. Riverside County sent 41.56% of its commuters to another county. I expect Riverside to be sending many more people now that the population has grown there.

---San Diego is VERY isolated as far as commuting patterns. In 2000, only about 3% of San Diego County residents left the county to go to work. VERY LOW. Only 40,000 people commute into San Diego County and Riverside County sent 46% of that 40,000.

Last edited by missionhome; 07-13-2010 at 06:18 PM..
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Old 07-13-2010, 07:40 PM
 
Location: Los Angeles
636 posts, read 1,341,347 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by missionhome View Post
Overall for Riverside County though at the 2000 census, most people leaving the county headed to neighboring San Bernardino County (60,400 people), Orange County (51,000 people), and L.A. County (36,802 people). San Diego only got 18,461 of those leaving Riverside County in 2000. Temecula and Murrieta are the notable exceptions in deep southern Riverside County sending many to San Diego. Riverside County sent 41.56% of its commuters to another county. I expect Riverside to be sending many more people now that the population has grown there.

---San Diego is VERY isolated as far as commuting patterns. In 2000, only about 3% of San Diego County residents left the county to go to work. VERY LOW. Only 40,000 people commute into San Diego County and Riverside County sent 46% of that 40,000.
It will be interesting to see what the 2010 stats are for the area. Traditionally Murrieta and Temecula are very close to North County in general.
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Old 07-13-2010, 09:09 PM
 
Location: The City
22,341 posts, read 32,208,951 times
Reputation: 7749
Another challenge to SD and LA becoming one is the size and population of the counties. 15% of one or the other would require more than 150,000K daily commuters either way. That is probably more than traverse that stretch of the 15 and the 5 combined in a single day let alone all being commuting to work. That part alone make it almost impossible


Seriously think about that, if it is 40K today, it is 1/4th the way there

Last edited by kidphilly; 07-13-2010 at 10:32 PM..
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