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Old 01-16-2011, 09:43 PM
 
Location: roaming gnome
12,391 posts, read 24,576,706 times
Reputation: 5662

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Quote:
Originally Posted by im_a_lawyer View Post
2030, 2050?? yeah right, that's if chicago's growth zero or negative...
comparing metro populations: chicago has ~9.5 mil residents and houston surprisingly has 5.8 mil... even dallas, TX has more people (6.4 mil) which is still a long way from chicago.

I doubt houston is ever going to surpass chicago's city population. i predict that those millions of surbanites near chicago will eventually move back to the city and once the cars are gone, houston will be screwed. cities in texas and south in general are very poorly planned and the public transporation options are very limited
If Chicago and DC's modest growth remain the same DC will pass Chicago in ~2030 and it has already passed Chicago's GDP. I'm pretty sure Chicago's growth rate was below the national average from 2000-2010. It's all about the metro area, nobody cares about city limit pops. Houston and Dallas are still quite a bit behind SF/Boston/DC, just a bit over halfway there for Chicago.
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Old 01-16-2011, 10:08 PM
 
229 posts, read 248,617 times
Reputation: 251
Quote:
Originally Posted by grapico View Post
If Chicago and DC's modest growth remain the same DC will pass Chicago in ~2030 and it has already passed Chicago's GDP. I'm pretty sure Chicago's growth rate was below the national average from 2000-2010. It's all about the metro area, nobody cares about city limit pops. Houston and Dallas are still quite a bit behind SF/Boston/DC, just a bit over halfway there for Chicago.
well hopefully the recession will end soon and then I'm sure texas growth will slow down while chicago's growth may go up a bit.
chicago is one of the best cities in the united states and i'm sure many of new graduates/young people looking to make it big in a world class city will settle into chicago (texas is not that appealing...)

anyways, looking in long term, chicago may be better prepared for the future.
as far as I know, public transporation in houston and texas in general is horrible and seeing what the urban sprawl has done to houston, it may be hard to fix that in the future when gas is priced at $8/gallon... you will see, then the people will flee back to the old cities with sufficient infastructure such as ny, pa, chicago..
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Old 01-17-2011, 02:35 AM
 
759 posts, read 1,672,125 times
Reputation: 358
Quote:
Originally Posted by im_a_lawyer View Post
well hopefully the recession will end soon and then I'm sure texas growth will slow down while chicago's growth may go up a bit.
Umm, Chicago lost more population than any other U.S. city in the last 10 years. Even Detroit lost less.

Now it just added the biggest tax increase in U.S. history, they're losing their superstar mayor, and the housing market was the nation's worst in 2010.

They also lost the Olympics, the city budget has the nation's largest municipal deficit, and they basically sold off every a available piece of city property (parking meters, tollways, etc.)

Outside of mindless homerism, why on earth would someone predict near-term population growth in Chicago?

And Texas isn't appealing to young people? Is this a comedy routine? Texas is a HUGE center for young folks; much moreso than Illinois.
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Old 01-17-2011, 02:41 AM
 
Location: BMORE!
7,746 posts, read 6,152,030 times
Reputation: 3598
Quote:
Originally Posted by Ohio248 View Post
Umm, Chicago lost more population than any other U.S. city in the last 10 years. Even Detroit lost less.

Now it just added the biggest tax increase in U.S. history, they're losing their superstar mayor, and the housing market was the nation's worst in 2010.

They also lost the Olympics, the city budget has the nation's largest municipal deficit, and they basically sold off every a available piece of city property (parking meters, tollways, etc.)

Outside of mindless homerism, why on earth would someone predict near-term population growth in Chicago?

And Texas isn't appealing to young people? Is this a comedy routine? Texas is a HUGE center for young folks; much moreso than Illinois.
wow. and people bash LA for some of the same reasons
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Old 01-17-2011, 02:58 AM
 
759 posts, read 1,672,125 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by MrRedd View Post
wow. and people bash LA for some of the same reasons
But the difference is that LA is growing and Chicago is shrinking.

And if Chicago is shrinking, and Houston is growing (very quickly), then (assuming the trends continue) Houston will eventually surpass Chicago.
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Old 01-17-2011, 09:38 AM
 
Location: Up on the moon laughing down on you
18,509 posts, read 28,180,477 times
Reputation: 7598
Quote:
Originally Posted by grapico View Post
If Chicago and DC's modest growth remain the same DC will pass Chicago in ~2030 and it has already passed Chicago's GDP. I'm pretty sure Chicago's growth rate was below the national average from 2000-2010. It's all about the metro area, nobody cares about city limit pops. Houston and Dallas are still quite a bit behind SF/Boston/DC, just a bit over halfway there for Chicago.
What are you talking about?? you are not usually so off the ball.

Both Houston and Dallas are ahead of SF, Boston and DC.

Unless you are confusing MSA with CSA.

Houston is at 6.1M
DFW is at 6.6M
DC is only at 5.5M
Boston is even a million less at 4.5M
and SF is way back at 4.3M

In 2020
Houston should be at 7.9M (Major pickup predicted with the Panama Canal expansion)
DFW should be at 8.3M (major slowdown predicted in the 20's)
Chicago should be at 9.9M
Boston should be at 4.8M

In 2030
Houston should be at 10M
DFW should be at 8.5M
Chicago should be at 10.2M
Boston should be at 5.2M
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Old 01-17-2011, 10:41 AM
 
Location: roaming gnome
12,391 posts, read 24,576,706 times
Reputation: 5662
Quote:
Originally Posted by HtownLove View Post
What are you talking about?? you are not usually so off the ball.

Both Houston and Dallas are ahead of SF, Boston and DC.

Unless you are confusing MSA with CSA.

Houston is at 6.1M
DFW is at 6.6M
DC is only at 5.5M
Boston is even a million less at 4.5M
and SF is way back at 4.3M

In 2020
Houston should be at 7.9M (Major pickup predicted with the Panama Canal expansion)
DFW should be at 8.3M (major slowdown predicted in the 20's)
Chicago should be at 9.9M
Boston should be at 4.8M

In 2030
Houston should be at 10M
DFW should be at 8.5M
Chicago should be at 10.2M
Boston should be at 5.2M
I'm referring to CSA. It's hard to deny Silicon Valley sitting right next to SF for example or the Bay Area dev in general, then have many Dallas corps in the same breath be out in the burbs too in Plano for example.

The 4 5 6 slots are

4 Washington-Baltimore-Northern Virginia, DC-MD-VA-WV CSA 8,440,617
5 Boston-Worcester-Manchester, MA-RI-NH CSA 7,609,358
6 San Jose-San Francisco-Oakland, CA CSA 7,427,757

followed by...

7 Dallas-Fort Worth, TX CSA 6,805,275
9 Houston-Baytown-Huntsville, TX CSA 5,968,586

And all 3 of those areas are more prominent than either Houston or Dallas, there is a reason, they serve a few million more people respectively.
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Old 01-17-2011, 10:44 AM
 
Location: Minneapolis (St. Louis Park)
5,991 posts, read 8,321,280 times
Reputation: 4270
Quote:
Originally Posted by Ohio248 View Post
But the difference is that LA is growing and Chicago is shrinking.

And if Chicago is shrinking, and Houston is growing (very quickly), then (assuming the trends continue) Houston will eventually surpass Chicago.
Let's wait for the OFFICIAL 2010 Census to reveal the true figures later this year.....something tells me Chicago didn't shrink that much, even considering the flight of the middle/lower-middle class to the suburbs.
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Old 01-17-2011, 10:46 AM
 
Location: Minneapolis (St. Louis Park)
5,991 posts, read 8,321,280 times
Reputation: 4270
Quote:
Originally Posted by HtownLove View Post
What are you talking about?? you are not usually so off the ball.

Both Houston and Dallas are ahead of SF, Boston and DC.

Unless you are confusing MSA with CSA.

Houston is at 6.1M
DFW is at 6.6M
DC is only at 5.5M
Boston is even a million less at 4.5M
and SF is way back at 4.3M

In 2020
Houston should be at 7.9M (Major pickup predicted with the Panama Canal expansion)
DFW should be at 8.3M (major slowdown predicted in the 20's)
Chicago should be at 9.9M
Boston should be at 4.8M

In 2030
Houston should be at 10M
DFW should be at 8.5M
Chicago should be at 10.2M
Boston should be at 5.2M
Using what growth rates?
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Old 01-17-2011, 10:47 AM
 
Location: Up on the moon laughing down on you
18,509 posts, read 28,180,477 times
Reputation: 7598
Quote:
Originally Posted by grapico View Post
I'm referring to CSA.
either way you must have been tired or something cause you mentioned MSA.

And neither Houston or Chicago has much of a CSA anyway.
And even still Boston and SF have slow growing CSA's

I don't like estimating CSA's because it is the newest demographic tool so it has the least history to go on and it has the weakest interaction.

When SF combines with SJ and DC with Baltimore, we will talk.
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