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Old 02-16-2011, 07:25 AM
 
Location: The canyon (with my pistols and knife)
13,224 posts, read 17,978,149 times
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Houston could pass Chicago by 2020, but shouldn't Dallas worry about passing San Antonio first before getting too ambitious?

So we know that Chicago's lost a lot of population (I was shocked at the number), but before we kick them too hard, let's examine who has left. If it's mainly undereducated and less productive people who have left, then that's a blessing in disguise because the city will become more productive and wealthier, and there won't be quite the burden on social services. It's addition by subtraction in that sense. Now if it's mainly educated and productive people who have left, then there's a serious problem. (Are you beginning to see why I believe a smaller population doesn't necessarily indicate a "dying" city?)

Conversely, if all the dumb people left Chicago and relocated to Houston, that's not necessarily a good thing for Houston. Basically, what I'm trying to say is, we need to stop looking at populations in strictly a quantity sense, and start looking at them in a quality sense. It's better to be a city that's shrinking but getting smarter and richer than it is to be a city that's growing rapidly but not gaining in wealth or educational attainment.
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Old 02-16-2011, 07:39 AM
 
5,767 posts, read 10,307,913 times
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I just don't see any significance in the city limit populations alone. The only relevant number remains the metro area population, since city boundaries are political entities, and aren't based on anything more "real" than lines on a map. And in fact, they can be amended through annexation, de-annexation, and so on.

For instance, if Seattle went supernova and somehow managed to annex everything from Everett down to Olympia, its population would exceed that of Los Angeles. But absolutely nobody would regard it as "bigger" than LA.
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Old 02-16-2011, 07:47 AM
 
Location: Willowbend/Houston
13,403 posts, read 21,218,862 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Gnutella View Post
Houston could pass Chicago by 2020, but shouldn't Dallas worry about passing San Antonio first before getting too ambitious?
I think they are talking about the DFW metro area, not just the city of Dallas. DFW could pass metro Chicago in our lifetime, but Im not sure when or if.
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Old 02-16-2011, 01:08 PM
 
Location: The City
22,341 posts, read 32,192,195 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Metro Matt View Post
Which it is, but that won't keep it from moving down the ranks to 4th largest city.

People go where the jobs are & right now that is Houston & Texas in general.

the day that Houston surpasses Chicago with 500 and whatever miles will be a yawn. Houston still feels considerably smaller as a city than the number six or number whatever (Boston and SF), not sure it means anything. Hell SA will likely pass Philly soon, in function is it even romotely similar in scale, no
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Old 02-16-2011, 01:26 PM
 
Location: Washington D.C. By way of Texas
18,649 posts, read 27,087,224 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by kidphilly View Post
the day that Houston surpasses Chicago with 500 and whatever miles will be a yawn. Houston still feels considerably smaller as a city than the number six or number whatever (Boston and SF), not sure it means anything. Hell SA will likely pass Philly soon, in function is it even romotely similar in scale, no
I agree. But if it does happen and Houston continued to distance itself away from Chicago in city population, that yawn could turn to hmm like it did for Los Angeles in the 1980s. Still, Houston metro won't pass Chicago metro for a long time. But I think it has great potential in the future to continue growing.
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Old 02-16-2011, 01:37 PM
 
Location: The City
22,341 posts, read 32,192,195 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Spade View Post
I agree. But if it does happen and Houston continued to distance itself away from Chicago in city population, that yawn could turn to hmm like it did for Los Angeles in the 1980s. Still, Houston metro won't pass Chicago metro for a long time. But I think it has great potential in the future to continue growing.

I would agree - I actually think Houston could be so much than it is, especially within the loop, hope they put together some more cohesive planning. When the loop can compete better Houston will be looked at muc more fondly in this perspective, but yes the area is quite attractive to many folks

In some ways though I cant see Houston proper significantly distancing itself, for the same reasons why more dense cities typically dont grow as fast, the cost and reason people moved there on top of jobs is cheaper real estate and more space, both somewhat contradictory. And to get there the infrastrcuture will get more and more taxed, both literally and figuratively

on the LA comparison, LA is still at least twice as dense as Houston and moreso in the core so at some point it did get more of pass yet often is still considered a lessor downtown to its in state rival. Not that density is everything but it truly plays a factor in the feel of city, cohesion, and vibrancy as well
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Old 02-16-2011, 05:34 PM
 
2 posts, read 4,340 times
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I recently read(today) that Chicago lost 200,000 people or 7% of it's population. So that makes our total population at 2,695,598(2010 Census) people.

Now this number is very important for many reasons but mainly for the fact the 2009 census estimates (on their website) were grossly inaccurate(by their own margin of error) they said that total population was 2,824,064 or about 130,000 more people than actual.

Yes Chicago is known for it's boom and bust, but Houston in it's history has never stopped growing, unlike Chicago in this past decade(00-10) I assume it grew(in 00 - 10).
This new information sure changed my mind.

I really do believe Houston will surpass and permanently maintain it's position(over Chicago) when it does overtake Chicago.

When will this happen? I don't know I am not educated in this field, but it's my educated guess that it will be in 10 years the minimum and 15 the maximum.
It will remain number 3 because of all of the emerging markets in the Americas(North, and South). As Houston will undoubtedly(Cultural reasons) be the hub for American-US.American Trade-&-Commerce.
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Old 10-25-2011, 01:34 PM
 
Location: Chicago
422 posts, read 689,304 times
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This whole topic is overblown and seems to be either paraded by Houston boosters or small minded people who hate Chicago.

I am not saying it is utterly impossible Houston city could surpass Chicago one day but it is FAR from inevitable and it is nowhere near as close at hand as people make it seem.

Houston still has about 600,000 less people than Chicago and Houston's rate of growth was actually not that impressive for the 2010 census given it's location in Texas and all the low density and huge space it has, it's rate of growth was only 7.5%. In reality it would take 20 years UNDER IDEAL CONDITIONS for Houston and the worst for Chicago. In other words something like 7% loss for Chicago each decade and 10% for Houston each decade. I think Houston could see 10% growth but I doubt Chicago will lose 7% again, in fact it may gain population for all we know, which would delay the takeover by Houston for decades more and who knows if Houston's growth will continue forever, I don't think it will decline but it might level off.

So really only in a sensationalized society would something like this even be discussed, any intellectual demographer would not see this as inevitable or even significant. I am sorry but when your sense of inevitability is dependent on hypothetical projects 20+ years in the future than you are pretty pathetic, get a life. People may accuse me of being a Chicago defender but if you are a Houston booster you should find other ways to promote your city than saying we might surpass Chicago in 20+ years. This isn't Los Angeles vs. Chicago in 1980 where it was inevitable, if and when it gets closer to that scenario that is the time to discuss this. Unless there is sense of inevitability by the next US census (and for 2020 there isn't with Chicago vs. Houston) then it is just an exercise in the hypothetical that invites fanboyism.
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Old 10-25-2011, 03:09 PM
 
Location: Ohio
904 posts, read 1,636,245 times
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If Houston passes Chicago as the #3 largest US city, I'll wake up the next morning and be like: Oh, Houston is now #3. Chicago is still a kick ass city though. Hmm..what cereal should I eat this morning?"

I don't see why it would be a big deal. It's just the simple fact that Houston has evolved into being more populated than Chicago. Time does that to things. Things change.

Now, I would be shocked if any city passes NYC. But that's not happening in my lifetime.
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Old 10-25-2011, 03:18 PM
 
Location: Underneath the Pecan Tree
15,989 posts, read 30,701,367 times
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If Houston passes Chicago; the only thing we're going to hear and see is more whining and crying from Chicagoans and annoying city enthusiasts. Can't say I'm too thrilled to experience that.
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