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Old 07-04-2007, 11:42 AM
 
150 posts, read 645,592 times
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Quote:
You can polish a turd all you want, but its still a turd.
a bit harsh eh? Well I love Chicago, its one of the two cities i want to move to after college, but Houston is no turd, lol. First chicago is not the Second City, its LA, and there is a HUGE HUGE gap between LA and Chicago. With the population growth lately in Houston, H-Town will definetaly get Chicago and become the third city. Chicago is great, but so is Houston.
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Old 07-04-2007, 11:49 AM
 
840 posts, read 6,059,717 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by NewYorkcapitaloftheworld View Post
This is my list the top ten largest American cities in 2030.
1. LA - 26 million
2. NYC - 25 million
3. Houston - 14.5 million
4. Chicago - 14.3 million
5. DFW - 14 million
6. D.C. - 13.5 million
7. SF Bay Area - 13 million
8. Boston - 12.8 million
9. Atlanta - 12.5 million
10. Miami - 11 million

Is it me or are those numbers high?
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Old 07-04-2007, 12:11 PM
 
Location: Midessa, Texas Home Yangzhou, Jiangsu temporarily
1,505 posts, read 3,849,109 times
Reputation: 931
Quote:
Originally Posted by NewYorkcapitaloftheworld View Post
This is my list the top ten largest American cities in 2030.
1. LA - 26 million
2. NYC - 25 million
3. Houston - 14.5 million
4. Chicago - 14.3 million
5. DFW - 14 million
6. D.C. - 13.5 million
7. SF Bay Area - 13 million
8. Boston - 12.8 million
9. Atlanta - 12.5 million
10. Miami - 11 million
Ok, just to get some idea of this means here are the current populations as of July 1, 2006 from the census bureau as per wikipedia.(In the order given above using the largest MSA figures.

1. Los Angeles-Long Beach-Santa Ana 12,950,129 Must increase by ~13.1 million

2. New York-Northern New Jersey-Long Island 18,818,536 Must increase by ~6.2 Million

3. Houston-Sugarland-Baytown 5,539,949 Must increase by ~9 Million

4. Chicago-Naperville-Joliet 9,505,748 Must increase by ~4.8 Million

5. Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington 6,003,967 Must increase by ~8 Million

6. Washington-Arlington-Alexandria 5,290,400 Must increase by ~8.2 Million

7. San Francisco-Oakland-Fremont 4,180,027 Must increase by ~8.1 Million

8. Boston-Cambridge-Quincy 4,455,217 Must increase by ~8.3 Million

9. Atlanta-Sandy Springs-Marietta 5,138,223 Must increase by ~7.4 Million

10. Miami-Fort Lauderdale-Pompano Beach 5,463,857 Must increase by ~5.5 million

Ok, so the closet to its "goal" is Chicago needing "only" 4.8 Million. So lets divide 4.8 by 23 years to get about 209,000 a year. Certainly possible.

Then on the high side, LA needs 13.1 million, so divided by 23 is about 570,000 a year. Also possible but not as likely.

So all in all I would say these numbers are possible but not probable.

Source:

United States metropolitan area - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
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Old 07-04-2007, 12:58 PM
 
150 posts, read 645,592 times
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Quote:
So all in all I would say these numbers are possible but not probable.
I see your point, I might be off with the predictions of SF Bay Are, DC, Miami, and Boston. But you gotta understand, Boston actually has aroud 7 to 8 million people living in its CSMA so does San Fran, and DC is over the 8 million mark. Atlanta IMO will die down eventually, and probably would barely crack the 10 million mark. But Houston and DFW will grow faster than any city. Houston will grow faster but DFW wont be too far behind. No one can argue that Houston and DFW wont take over Chicago in metro population, that is almost certainly going to happen. At the end of the day no one can argue that Houston and DFW are future great cities, i predict by 2030 Houston will definetaly be an Alpha World City, and DFW will be close behind.
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Old 07-04-2007, 01:01 PM
 
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Quote:
Los Angeles-Long Beach-Santa Ana 12,950,129 Must increase by ~13.1 million
Greater LA has about 18 million people, so 26 million by 2030 might actually be very accurate.
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Old 07-04-2007, 01:11 PM
 
Location: Midessa, Texas Home Yangzhou, Jiangsu temporarily
1,505 posts, read 3,849,109 times
Reputation: 931
Quote:
Originally Posted by NewYorkcapitaloftheworld View Post
I see your point, I might be off with the predictions of SF Bay Are, DC, Miami, and Boston. But you gotta understand, Boston actually has aroud 7 to 8 million people living in its CSMA so does San Fran, and DC is over the 8 million mark. Atlanta IMO will die down eventually, and probably would barely crack the 10 million mark. But Houston and DFW will grow faster than any city. Houston will grow faster but DFW wont be too far behind. No one can argue that Houston and DFW wont take over Chicago in metro population, that is almost certainly going to happen. At the end of the day no one can argue that Houston and DFW are future great cities, i predict by 2030 Houston will definetaly be an Alpha World City, and DFW will be close behind.
Good points. I was going with the census estimates from the census bureau which have some issues. For example my area has two metros officially, Midland and Odessa. The funny thing is that part of Odessa is counted in the Midland metro because it is in Midland county, never mind that it is a part of Odessa proper and 12 miles from Midland proper. Anyway, these metro divisions may not reflect the actual reality on the ground. So I concede that several of these metro areas are actually larger than they appear to be by these statistics.
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Old 07-04-2007, 02:51 PM
 
Location: Texas
2,703 posts, read 2,613,810 times
Reputation: 206
Quote:
Originally Posted by NewYorkcapitaloftheworld View Post
I see your point, I might be off with the predictions of SF Bay Are, DC, Miami, and Boston. But you gotta understand, Boston actually has aroud 7 to 8 million people living in its CSMA so does San Fran, and DC is over the 8 million mark. Atlanta IMO will die down eventually, and probably would barely crack the 10 million mark. But Houston and DFW will grow faster than any city. Houston will grow faster but DFW wont be too far behind. No one can argue that Houston and DFW wont take over Chicago in metro population, that is almost certainly going to happen. At the end of the day no one can argue that Houston and DFW are future great cities, i predict by 2030 Houston will definetaly be an Alpha World City, and DFW will be close behind.

DFW isn't a city.
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Old 07-04-2007, 03:10 PM
 
Location: Washington D.C. By way of Texas
18,659 posts, read 27,113,557 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by NewYorkcapitaloftheworld View Post
First of al Houston will have slightly more people than DFW, I've already mentioned the reasons why before. And second, i dont think they will add only 3 million in the next 23 years, think about how much smaller Houston was 20 years ago, and now since it is a global city, the growth will only grow. Asians are already the fastest growing percentage-wise, all of this adds up to phenominal growth. maybe not as high as I predicted, but Houston will definetaly surpass the 10 or 11 million mark. I cant say about DFW, but it will grow too but not as fast as Houston.

You mentioned the reasons and said it was your opinion. I mentioned my reasons and said those were my opinions. Nothing we are saying is fact because we are making predictions. I believe DFW will have the slight advantage because it already has 500,000 more people AND it's growing at the same clip as Houston AND it's not showing any signs of slowing down. In fact, it's showing signs of actually speeding up. DFW will also for sure pass the 10 million mark. It's going to pass the 7 million mark a year after 2010 and Houston will do so 3 years after that. You do know that DFW also has a fast growing Asian population themselves, right? 882,000 Asians live in Texas. 700,000 of them don't live in Houston.
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Old 07-04-2007, 03:14 PM
 
150 posts, read 645,592 times
Reputation: 89
[/quote]DFW isn't a city. [/quote]

yea sorry, but i dont like saying Dallas, because Houston proper is ahead in almost every category if compared to Dallas proper. while DFW and Greater Houston are more comparable.
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Old 07-04-2007, 03:19 PM
 
Location: Texas
2,703 posts, read 2,613,810 times
Reputation: 206
Quote:
Originally Posted by Spade View Post
You mentioned the reasons and said it was your opinion. I mentioned my reasons and said those were my opinions. Nothing we are saying is fact because we are making predictions. I believe DFW will have the slight advantage because it already has 500,000 more people AND it's growing at the same clip as Houston AND it's not showing any signs of slowing down. In fact, it's showing signs of actually speeding up. DFW will also for sure pass the 10 million mark. It's going to pass the 7 million mark a year after 2010 and Houston will do so 3 years after that. You do know that DFW also has a fast growing Asian population themselves, right? 882,000 Asians live in Texas. 700,000 of them don't live in Houston.
That's not true. Houston has far more Asians than that. Just 4,000 shy of 300,000 for the metro area. DFW is more of a black and white region.
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