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Old 01-02-2011, 04:58 PM
 
1,054 posts, read 1,834,111 times
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Omaha-Lincoln MSA - (1,180,000 and an addition of Dodge: 36,000; Saline 15,000 and Otoe 17,000 total of 68,000)
Currently - 1,248,000
1,497,600 by 10% growth each of the next two decades. Slowest growth in history of both cities.
1,584,960 by current growth rates (from the last two decades).. This is 13.5% per decade.
1,622,400 with a slightly higher growth rate than currently. This is 15% growth per decade.

Reason:
1) Omaha and Lincoln are currently separate MSAs, but are on the verge of true MSA consolidation with rapid growth on the 23 miles of fields between the two city limits.
2) Three counties are projected to be included in either MSA due to traffic counts. Dodge to the Omaha MSA and Otoe, Saline counties to the Lincoln MSA. If either of the new counties for Lincoln's MSA is left off in 2013, it would be added in 2023.
3) Assuming a 13.5% growth rate for the next two decades, this number would be accurate. Numbers may be indicating a larger growth rate than this in the 2010 census due to an undercount in the Nebraska and Iowa actual counts (Omaha MSA includes 3 Iowa counties). Until hardcore numbers reflect this acceleration, I will continue with the 13.5% growth rate.
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Old 01-02-2011, 10:56 PM
 
Location: South Beach and DT Raleigh
11,810 posts, read 18,804,722 times
Reputation: 11136
Quote:
Originally Posted by Omahahonors View Post
Omaha-Lincoln MSA - (1,180,000 and an addition of Dodge: 36,000; Saline 15,000 and Otoe 17,000 total of 68,000)
Currently - 1,248,000
1,497,600 by 10% growth each of the next two decades. Slowest growth in history of both cities.
1,584,960 by current growth rates (from the last two decades).. This is 13.5% per decade.
1,622,400 with a slightly higher growth rate than currently. This is 15% growth per decade.

Reason:
1) Omaha and Lincoln are currently separate MSAs, but are on the verge of true MSA consolidation with rapid growth on the 23 miles of fields between the two city limits.
2) Three counties are projected to be included in either MSA due to traffic counts. Dodge to the Omaha MSA and Otoe, Saline counties to the Lincoln MSA. If either of the new counties for Lincoln's MSA is left off in 2013, it would be added in 2023.
3) Assuming a 13.5% growth rate for the next two decades, this number would be accurate. Numbers may be indicating a larger growth rate than this in the 2010 census due to an undercount in the Nebraska and Iowa actual counts (Omaha MSA includes 3 Iowa counties). Until hardcore numbers reflect this acceleration, I will continue with the 13.5% growth rate.
Good logic and description of how this happens but don't underestimate the Census Bureau. Let me tell you why. Before 2003, Raleigh and Durham were part of one MSA called Raleigh/Durham/Chapel Hill. In its infinite wisdom, the Census Bureau actually separated them into two as they grew rapidly together to the point where the two cities actually touch each other and cross over each other's county lines. So, don't assume that two MSAs will be united, even if it makes all the sense in the world to you. Because, surely, the sense of the people who actually live somewhere are the last to be consulted.
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Old 01-02-2011, 10:57 PM
 
Location: South Beach and DT Raleigh
11,810 posts, read 18,804,722 times
Reputation: 11136
Quote:
Originally Posted by Shadow Inc. View Post
Its actually very possible, those two cities shouldn't never gotten that big. The USA should abandon the west coast. I don't see New Orleans making it to 2030 neither.
Something being possible, even likely, is different from something being a fact. I am just trying to keep it honest here. Thanks.
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Old 01-03-2011, 07:52 AM
 
Location: Washington, D.C.
276 posts, read 331,759 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by rnc2mbfl View Post
Something being possible, even likely, is different from something being a fact. I am just trying to keep it honest here. Thanks.
We'll see in 2030 now won't we
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Old 01-03-2011, 04:34 PM
 
1,054 posts, read 1,834,111 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by rnc2mbfl View Post
Good logic and description of how this happens but don't underestimate the Census Bureau. Let me tell you why. Before 2003, Raleigh and Durham were part of one MSA called Raleigh/Durham/Chapel Hill. In its infinite wisdom, the Census Bureau actually separated them into two as they grew rapidly together to the point where the two cities actually touch each other and cross over each other's county lines. So, don't assume that two MSAs will be united, even if it makes all the sense in the world to you. Because, surely, the sense of the people who actually live somewhere are the last to be consulted.
You are definetely right. both the Raleigh/Durham/Chapel Hill areas and Omaha/Lincoln areas should be consolidated. So does San Francisco/San Jose for that matter.
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Old 01-03-2011, 11:02 PM
 
Location: South Beach and DT Raleigh
11,810 posts, read 18,804,722 times
Reputation: 11136
Quote:
Originally Posted by Omahahonors View Post
You are definetely right. both the Raleigh/Durham/Chapel Hill areas and Omaha/Lincoln areas should be consolidated. So does San Francisco/San Jose for that matter.
According to Google maps, the Google center of Omaha to the Google center of Lincoln via the shortest (only logical) route is 53.2 miles. Conversely, the Google center of Raleigh to Google center of Durham via the shortest route is 24.5 miles (which is shorter than the distance from the Google centers of Miami to Ft Lauderdale). There's more than double the difference between the two comparisons. Plus, Raleigh and Durham actually touch each other now...not in the future.
To put it in perspective another way, Durham is 55.9 miles from Greensboro and nobody considers those two cities to be in the same metro yet there are some significant linking communities between the two. If that were a justification unto itself, one could argue that the area from Raleigh to Winston-Salem was one giant 3.4 million person metro area that traverses over a hundred miles from west to east inclusive of W-S, Greensboro, High Point, Burlington, Chapel Hill, Durham, Raleigh and Cary.
I'll be shocked if the Census Bureau doesn't re-unite Raleigh and Durham into one MSA of 1.8 million the next time they consider the issue.
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Old 01-04-2011, 06:04 AM
 
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55 miles is from downtown Omaha to downtown Lincoln. There are only 23 miles of undeveloped space between the two.
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Old 01-04-2011, 11:54 AM
 
Location: South Beach and DT Raleigh
11,810 posts, read 18,804,722 times
Reputation: 11136
Quote:
Originally Posted by Omahahonors View Post
55 miles is from downtown Omaha to downtown Lincoln. There are only 23 miles of undeveloped space between the two.
Okay, I understand that but the undeveloped land between the two cities is almost equal to the distance between DT Raleigh and DT Durham. BTW, there isn't a development gap at all between Raleigh and Durham. Raleigh and other Wake County communities are developed all the way to the Durham County border and then Durham takes over with its own develpment. This is not an apples to apples comparison. Here's a map of Research Triangle communities. http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedi...onNumbered.PNG It's a few years old and some city limits have since expanded but it will give you an idea.
Since the legend is not on this map here's a short one to assist:
  • A = Raleigh
  • B = Durham
  • C = Chapel Hill
  • D = Cary
  • a = Research Triangle Park
  • b = Umstead State Park
The white gap space to the NW of "b" is where the airport is.
When Omaha and Lincoln fill the gap that exists, I think you'll have a valid point.

Here's another map that compares the Triangle of 1950 to 2000. This would be more like the gap you have now. http://www.scienceprogress.org/wp-co...iangle_591.jpg
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Old 01-04-2011, 12:28 PM
 
1,054 posts, read 1,834,111 times
Reputation: 699
Quote:
Originally Posted by rnc2mbfl View Post
Okay, I understand that but the undeveloped land between the two cities is almost equal to the distance between DT Raleigh and DT Durham. BTW, there isn't a development gap at all between Raleigh and Durham. Raleigh and other Wake County communities are developed all the way to the Durham County border and then Durham takes over with its own develpment. This is not an apples to apples comparison. Here's a map of Research Triangle communities. http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedi...onNumbered.PNG It's a few years old and some city limits have since expanded but it will give you an idea.

Since the legend is not on this map here's a short one to assist:
  • A = Raleigh
  • B = Durham
  • C = Chapel Hill
  • D = Cary
  • a = Research Triangle Park
  • b = Umstead State Park
The white gap space to the NW of "b" is where the airport is.
When Omaha and Lincoln fill the gap that exists, I think you'll have a valid point.

Here's another map that compares the Triangle of 1950 to 2000. This would be more like the gap you have now. http://www.scienceprogress.org/wp-co...iangle_591.jpg

I'm not disputing that Raleigh/Durham deserve to be one metro at all. I think it is a blunder from the OMB office for splitting them, as a matter of fact. Omaha/Lincoln is in a grey area while Raleigh/Durham is not and therefore I am not at all comparing the two.

I have absolutely no idea as to why you think anbody is 'arguably' comparing the two and I frankly never had an interest to do so. All I am saying is that Omaha/Lincoln are rapidly growing straight for each other as are the cities in between. Some of the outlying counties meet the criteria to be a part of the MSA for both as well.

The difference:
Raleigh/Durham shouldn't have any grey area and I believe it was a mistake to separate them.
Omaha/Lincoln is in a grey area that is quickly approaching to not being a grey area.

Last edited by Omahahonors; 01-04-2011 at 01:04 PM..
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Old 01-04-2011, 08:09 PM
 
Location: Texarkana
674 posts, read 1,347,669 times
Reputation: 176
Quote:
Originally Posted by westhou View Post
am i the only one who had a hard time reading this post?
No, you most certainly aren't.
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