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Old 08-08-2011, 08:29 PM
 
Location: Nashville
597 posts, read 1,884,935 times
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Yeah, what he said.

NV, you make me proud to share a county with you.
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Old 08-08-2011, 09:34 PM
 
Location: Denver
14,151 posts, read 19,756,357 times
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Baton Rouge, Louisiana: 1-1.1 million

New Orleans, Louiaiana: 1.5-1.6 million
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Old 08-09-2011, 01:30 PM
 
116 posts, read 181,488 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by MrGrinch81 View Post
I think Charlotte will have like 2.5 by then.
Actually, I wouldn't be suprised to see Charlotte hit 3 or more. I say that because the MSA definitions will probably change by 2030, and more counties will be added, and though growth may slow down some percentage wise, we'll probably add a lot more people still. I think the DNC will do big things for Charlotte with name recognition, but who knows what the future holds.
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Old 08-09-2011, 01:39 PM
 
116 posts, read 181,488 times
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I also think Raleigh/Durham will get pretty big, I think Charlotte will stay #1 in the Carolinas honestly, but it will be interesting to watch how all 3 in NC as well as SC cities grow.
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Old 08-09-2011, 02:11 PM
 
Location: The Lakes
2,372 posts, read 4,450,720 times
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I see the growth rate of the southern, more sprawling metros dropping off significantly once the baby boomers start to die.

Generations born in the mid 80s and onwards are flocking to more dense, urban communities while suburbia continues to be dominated by the rapidly dwindling 40+ middle class white crowd.

There's far less shame in America these days in living in an apartment. The kind of home that our parents own will be much harder to obtain for our generation. Couple that with the fact that many southern homes are rapidly built McMansion types and will begin falling apart 20-30 years after their construction (especially with the use of particleboard becoming more and more common) and we'll have hollowed out donuts in metros that resemble Detroit with strong urban cores.

Sadly, though, the south already has invested too much in inefficient infrastructure to turn back.
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Old 08-09-2011, 02:33 PM
 
Location: Denver
14,151 posts, read 19,756,357 times
Reputation: 8803
Quote:
Originally Posted by UKUKUK View Post
I see the growth rate of the southern, more sprawling metros dropping off significantly once the baby boomers start to die.

Generations born in the mid 80s and onwards are flocking to more dense, urban communities while suburbia continues to be dominated by the rapidly dwindling 40+ middle class white crowd.

There's far less shame in America these days in living in an apartment. The kind of home that our parents own will be much harder to obtain for our generation. Couple that with the fact that many southern homes are rapidly built McMansion types and will begin falling apart 20-30 years after their construction (especially with the use of particleboard becoming more and more common) and we'll have hollowed out donuts in metros that resemble Detroit with strong urban cores.

Sadly, though, the south already has invested too much in inefficient infrastructure to turn back.
The trick will be developing sustainable communities out of the most populous suburbs, it's happening now.
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Old 08-09-2011, 02:34 PM
 
6,418 posts, read 10,861,283 times
Reputation: 6687
Quote:
Originally Posted by UKUKUK View Post
I see the growth rate of the southern, more sprawling metros dropping off significantly once the baby boomers start to die.

Generations born in the mid 80s and onwards are flocking to more dense, urban communities while suburbia continues to be dominated by the rapidly dwindling 40+ middle class white crowd.

There's far less shame in America these days in living in an apartment. The kind of home that our parents own will be much harder to obtain for our generation. Couple that with the fact that many southern homes are rapidly built McMansion types and will begin falling apart 20-30 years after their construction (especially with the use of particleboard becoming more and more common) and we'll have hollowed out donuts in metros that resemble Detroit with strong urban cores.

Sadly, though, the south already has invested too much in inefficient infrastructure to turn back.
I don't want to turn this into an argument of urban vs. suburban living...but I find what you bolded to be quite a generalization. If what you suggest is true, then you would be seeing suburbs start to stagnate or lose population.

I think you are under the false impression that the 80s generations think in one big block. They do not. Plenty of young people and families start out in the city, and eventually move to the suburbs. Some even buy their first home in the suburbs.

As for the "40+ middle class white crowd"...you do realize that a lot of the old lily white suburbs in the South are becoming more diverse, right? Blacks live in the suburbs now, as do Hispanics and Asians. And those (plus whites) populations are growing, not shrinking.


Yes, the youth of this nation has shown a renewed interest in urban living, and some central cores are (or were, before the recession) building apartments, condos, lofts, etc. to cater to the urban lifestyle. But the urban lifestyle isn't for everyone. There are still a very large number of people who prefer the suburbs to the central city. And if the South stops growing, I highly doubt it will be simply because a lot of the development is more suburban in nature. I think you overestimate what the "average" individual or family considers when moving to an area. You also don't take into account that some of these 80s generations might love city living when they are younger, but could change their minds later in life.
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Old 08-09-2011, 03:10 PM
 
Location: The Lakes
2,372 posts, read 4,450,720 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by nashvols View Post
I don't want to turn this into an argument of urban vs. suburban living...but I find what you bolded to be quite a generalization. If what you suggest is true, then you would be seeing suburbs start to stagnate or lose population.

I think you are under the false impression that the 80s generations think in one big block. They do not. Plenty of young people and families start out in the city, and eventually move to the suburbs. Some even buy their first home in the suburbs.

As for the "40+ middle class white crowd"...you do realize that a lot of the old lily white suburbs in the South are becoming more diverse, right? Blacks live in the suburbs now, as do Hispanics and Asians. And those (plus whites) populations are growing, not shrinking.


Yes, the youth of this nation has shown a renewed interest in urban living, and some central cores are (or were, before the recession) building apartments, condos, lofts, etc. to cater to the urban lifestyle. But the urban lifestyle isn't for everyone. There are still a very large number of people who prefer the suburbs to the central city. And if the South stops growing, I highly doubt it will be simply because a lot of the development is more suburban in nature. I think you overestimate what the "average" individual or family considers when moving to an area. You also don't take into account that some of these 80s generations might love city living when they are younger, but could change their minds later in life.
Diverse =/= dense and urban.

Yes, it's a generalization and there are exceptions to the rule, but when it comes down to it, our generation desires urban living more than any previous generation since it was necessity. This trend shows all over.
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Old 08-09-2011, 03:35 PM
 
6,418 posts, read 10,861,283 times
Reputation: 6687
Quote:
Originally Posted by UKUKUK View Post
Diverse =/= dense and urban.

Yes, it's a generalization and there are exceptions to the rule, but when it comes down to it, our generation desires urban living more than any previous generation since it was necessity. This trend shows all over.
Perhaps that is true, and I don't think that is a bad thing. But you have to remember that there are still plenty of people from 80s generations who will choose to live in the suburbs...

I think there are more exceptions to the rule than you realize.



btw, this is coming from an 80s kid.
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Old 08-09-2011, 03:57 PM
 
Location: Brooklyn, New York
3,738 posts, read 3,849,326 times
Reputation: 3560
Quote:
Originally Posted by Howest2008 View Post
I think that they were talking Metro not city proper
I think by the time NYC hits 25 million in the metro, they would have to join more counties into NYC MSA... and probably the CSA will be a joint NYC-Philly CSA. Unless of course they change the CSA definitions again so that NYC and Philadelphia would be kept from joining each other into a single CSA.
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