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Old 08-09-2011, 04:58 PM
 
Location: South Beach and DT Raleigh
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Quote:
Originally Posted by seanm83 View Post
I also think Raleigh/Durham will get pretty big, I think Charlotte will stay #1 in the Carolinas honestly, but it will be interesting to watch how all 3 in NC as well as SC cities grow.
Certainly the lines of all three major metros will continue to be redrawn through 2030. I don't expect the Triangle to pass Charlotte's metro by then but I do expect that the gap will narrow.
It wouldn't surprise me though if the NC part of the Charlotte metro was smaller than the Triangle by then. In its current boundaries, one projection has the Triangle at ~2.5 million. I would think that total population of the Charlotte-Metrolina in both NC & SC will be higher.
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Old 01-16-2012, 10:02 PM
 
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When the US Census release county stats for 2011?
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Old 01-16-2012, 11:01 PM
 
Location: That star on your map in the middle of the East Coast, DMV
3,974 posts, read 3,456,237 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by NewYorkcapitaloftheworld View Post
This is my list the top ten largest American cities in 2030.
1. LA - 26 million
2. NYC - 25 million
3. Houston - 14.5 million
4. Chicago - 14.3 million
5. DFW - 14 million
6. D.C. - 13.5 million
7. SF Bay Area - 13 million
8. Boston - 12.8 million
9. Atlanta - 12.5 million
10. Miami - 11 million

These numbers are WAY off, like every city is about 4 or 5 million off. Idk how you came up with this. You need to redo this with the most current numbers and project whatever numbers you can from the most recent 2010 census etc. No way in the world that there are 10 metro areas above 10 million in 18 years when you only have 2 CSA's above 10 million in 2012.

As a CSA we'll be lucky to see 5 areas above 10 million. If DC and Dallas make it by then, Chicago is practically there.
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Old 01-17-2012, 05:40 AM
 
Location: Austin
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I can see Dallas, and Houston reaching the 10 million mark by then. Austin would be around 3 million, and San Antonio would be around 3.5 million.
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Old 01-17-2012, 11:26 AM
 
Location: Denver
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I don't see how any of those Texas cities are going to top 10 million...ever. Houston and Dallas already encompass about 10,000 square miles apiece. I can't see any way these metros can expand much further outwards, so they're going to need to start filling in towards the city. Higher land values will follow.

With Texas' tax system having to rely on high property taxes due to no income taxes, this will drastically increase the cost of living of these cities. One of the only reasons these cities are growing at these ridiculous rates is because they offer an advantageous cost of living. Without their main draw, how can we expect these cities to continue to grow like that? Answer: we can't. On top of that, there are only so many people in Mexico. The massive influx of Mexicans to the Southwest metros will slow down soon enough.

I think ultimately, Dallas & Houston will top off somewhere around 7.5-8 million. Maybe one of them will get up to 8.5-9.

My 2030 MSA list would look something like this:

New York City: 21,000,000
Los Angeles: 15,000,000
Chicago: 10,300,000
Washington DC: 9,100,000 (result of Baltimore/Washington CSA becoming an MSA in the future)
San Francisco Bay: 8,600,000 (SF/SJ become a single MSA)
Dallas: 7,900,000
Houston: 7,600,000
Philadelphia: 6,700,000
Atlanta: 6,600,000
Miami: 6,300,000
Boston: 6,100,000
Phoenix: 5,300,000
Riverside: 5,200,000
Seattle: 4,400,000
Detroit: 3,900,000
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Old 01-17-2012, 11:29 AM
 
Location: The City
22,331 posts, read 32,152,919 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by tmac9wr View Post
I don't see how any of those Texas cities are going to top 10 million...ever. Houston and Dallas already encompass about 10,000 square miles apiece. I can't see any way these metros can expand much further outwards, so they're going to need to start filling in towards the city.

This will result in greater scarcity of land, and higher land values will result. With Texas' tax system having to rely on high property taxes due to no income taxes, this will drastically increase the cost of living of these cities. One of the only reasons these cities are growing at these ridiculous rates is because they offer an advantageous cost of living. Without their main draw, how can we expect these cities to continue to grow like that? Answer: we can't. On top of that, there are only so many people in Mexico. The massive influx of Mexicans to the Southwest metros will slow greatly soon and eventually stop.

I think ultimately, Dallas & Houston will top off somewhere around 7.5-8 million. Maybe one of them will get up to 8.5-9.

My 2030 list would look something like this:

New York City: 21,000,000
Los Angeles: 15,000,000
Chicago: 10,300,000
Washington DC: 9,100,000 (result of Baltimore/Washington CSA becoming an MSA in the future)
San Francisco Bay: 8,600,000 (SF/SJ become a single MSA)
Dallas: 7,900,000
Houston: 7,600,000
Philadelphia: 6,700,000
Atlanta: 6,600,000
Miami: 6,300,000
Boston: 6,100,000
Phoenix: 5,300,000
Riverside: 5,200,000
Seattle: 4,400,000
Detroit: 3,900,000

Been reading more on the MSA classification rules and it appears that neither of these will ever make the MSA level do to the core county requirement. Unless a drastic change they will continue to be seperate MSAs

Also Detroit would seem to be closer to 5 million by that time
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Old 01-17-2012, 11:35 AM
 
Location: Denver
6,628 posts, read 12,505,595 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by kidphilly View Post
Been reading more on the MSA classification rules and it appears that neither of these will ever make the MSA level do to the core county requirement. Unless a drastic change they will continue to be seperate MSAs

Also Detroit would seem to be closer to 5 million by that time
Interesting! I will have to rethink those rankings then.

I honestly could see Washington hitting 7 million by 2030 simply because I think it's going to do what NYC did to Philadelphia in terms of stealing counties away from Baltimore. Add to that the fact that it's growing almost like a Sunbelt city and has the economy to support it, I'll put DC at an even 7,000,000 for 2030.

San Francisco I'll say is an tied with Boston at 6,100,000 by that time.

However Detroit lost 3.5% of its MSA population last decade according to this...unfortunately I don't see that trend reversing. As sad as it is, I don't have faith in Detroit and its ability to recover. I think from here on the city will continue to die.
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Old 01-17-2012, 11:53 AM
 
1,830 posts, read 3,228,452 times
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I suspect the growth of the largest metros (over 6M) will slow down the most. The 3-6M metros will continue to grow but maybe not at the rate in last 20 years. Most <3M metros will likely grow at faster rate than last 20 years.
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Old 01-17-2012, 11:57 AM
 
Location: Denver
6,628 posts, read 12,505,595 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by xenokc View Post
I suspect the growth of the largest metros (over 6M) will slow down the most. The 3-6M metros will continue to grow but maybe not at the rate in last 20 years. Most <3M metros will likely grow at faster rate than last 20 years.
What I don't get is how so many people are predicting these Texas metros to jump past 10 million like it ain't no thang. At one point Chicago was easily the fastest growing city in the nation. It has been the #3 city population wise for decades now but still hasn't topped 10 mil. Just because these Texan cities had a good decade doesn't mean this level of growth will persist. Yes, they'll continue to grow...but it's hard to imagine they'll come anywhere close to sustaining the rate.
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Old 01-17-2012, 12:06 PM
 
Location: Boston Metrowest (via the Philly area)
4,453 posts, read 7,520,622 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by xenokc View Post
I suspect the growth of the largest metros (over 6M) will slow down the most. The 3-6M metros will continue to grow but maybe not at the rate in last 20 years. Most <3M metros will likely grow at faster rate than last 20 years.
I agree. There definitely seems to be a sort of threshold of declining population growth rate once a metro area reaches a certain size. Of course, that's not to say that New York and Los Angeles aren't adding thousands of people to their metro areas every year, but it's a drop in the bucket.

There is a "maxing out" of sorts, and it only seems inevitable in places like Phoenix, Dallas and Atlanta -- Sun Belt metros with recent more massive growth -- will have to subside and take place not through sprawl but densification. This creates more logistical issues that will start to temper that growth.
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