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Old 01-17-2012, 03:17 PM
 
Location: The City
22,331 posts, read 32,152,919 times
Reputation: 7738

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Quote:
Originally Posted by HtownLove View Post
not really. 2M over 9 counties over 8500 sq miles???
that is 225K per county or 235 people per sq mile. That is almost dang near rural.
I don't honestly see it as a stretch to get an area up to 275 ppsm. Counties like Brazoria and Montgomery got 223K without that much infrastructure changes.

Have you been to the outlying areas by any chance?
Austin or Chambers county for example?? I don't think you guys realize how empty those things are. The Roads in those places are not too bad already.
To attract 2 million people into these areas they need jobs and a means to get to those jobs. Try adding another 1 million cars to the current infrastructure and see what happens
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Old 01-17-2012, 03:25 PM
 
Location: Washington D.C. By way of Texas
18,633 posts, read 27,052,687 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by JoninATX View Post
Why can't DFW and Houston reach 10 million? DFW metro is only 3 million short from the 10 million mark and with all the growth I would not be surprise if DFW or Houston top out at 12 million if not more.
Houston would have to basically average 2 million people per decade just to get there. No CSA is growing THAT fast and hasn't since Los Angeles CSA didn't. Even when you combine LA and Riverside CSA, it isn't growing by 2 million a decade anymore. If Houston and DFW continue their current growth, both will come up short of 10 million. Houston will have 8.4 or 8.5 million by 2030 and DFW will have around 8.8 or 8.9 million. They won't even reach 9 in 2030 million let alone 10. In fact, if DFW continues it's current growth, it could come very close to 8 million by 2020. But they will still need to grow out of it's mind in the next 10 years to get to 10 million.

The only other CSA that has a chance to get to 10 million other than Chicago by 2030 is Washington/Baltimore
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Old 01-17-2012, 03:30 PM
 
1,807 posts, read 2,532,338 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by NewYorkcapitaloftheworld View Post
This is my list the top ten largest American cities in 2030.
1. LA - 26 million
2. NYC - 25 million
3. Houston - 14.5 million
4. Chicago - 14.3 million
5. DFW - 14 million
6. D.C. - 13.5 million
7. SF Bay Area - 13 million
8. Boston - 12.8 million
9. Atlanta - 12.5 million
10. Miami - 11 million


Here is my list. It is based (approximately) on taking the 2010 census growth numbers, and doubling them (for the 20 next years). However, I anticipate slightly slower growth in the biggest metro areas, and higher growth rates in metro areas of 1 million or fewer people. This is especially true for the sun belt. So, for some places that grew by, say, 24% in the past ten years, I predicted maybe 30% growth in the next 20 (15% per census period).

Detroit I predict to continue to decline, but not at the same rate. Pittsburgh (which also lost people between 2000 and 2010) will stabilize and begin to grow.

These numbers are approximate, and my guess is as good as yours. Don't flame me because your city isn't as high as you want it to be and you're too big of a homer to deal with it

1. NY: 18,897,109 6%= 1,140,000= 20,040,000
2. LA: 12,828,837 7%= 896,000= 13,725,000
3. Chicago: 9,461,105 5%=475,000= 9,935,000
4. DFW: 6,371,773 30%=1,911,300 =8,282,300
5. Houston: 5,946,800 30%= 1,785,000= 7,731,000
6. DC: 5,582,170 20%= 1,116,000= 6,698,000
7. Philly: 5,965,343 10%= 597,000= 6,562,000
8. Miami: 5,564,635 15%= 834,000= 6,398,000
9. Atlanta: 5,268,860 20%= 1,052,000= 6,320,000
10. Riverside: 4,224,851 40%= 1,689,600= 5,913,600
11. Phoenix: 4,192,887 30%= 1,257,600= 5,449,600
12. Boston: 4,552,402 5%= 227,500= 4,779,500
13. SF Bay: 4,335,391 9%= 390,150= 4,725,150
14. Seattle: 3,439,809 25%= 859,750= 4,298,750
15. MSP: 3,317,308 25%= 829,250= 4,146,250
16. Detroit: 4,296,250 -5%= 214,800= 4,081,200
17. San Diego: 3,095,313 30%= 928,500= 4,023,500
18. Tampa-St. Pete: 2,783,243 25%=695,750= 3,478,750
19. Denver: 2,543,482 25%= 635,750= 3,178,750
20. St. Louis: 2,812,896 12%= 337,440= 3,149,440
21. Baltimore: 2,710,489 15%= 406,500= 3,116,500
22. Portland: 2,226,009 25%= 556,500= 2,782,500
23. Pittsburgh: 2,356,285 10%=236,000= 2,622,000
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Old 01-17-2012, 03:33 PM
 
Location: Washington D.C. By way of Texas
18,633 posts, read 27,052,687 times
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^^You forgot Atlanta.
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Old 01-17-2012, 03:35 PM
 
Location: Up on the moon laughing down on you
18,509 posts, read 28,163,980 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by kidphilly View Post
To attract 2 million people into these areas they need jobs and a means to get to those jobs. Try adding another 1 million cars to the current infrastructure and see what happens
right. Like I said a couple posts ago, Chambers county is near the Port, they are getting some of the jobs from the port expansion because of the vast empty space to build ware houses.

And again you are not adding 1 M to one area. Rather to a huge area.
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Old 01-17-2012, 03:35 PM
 
1,807 posts, read 2,532,338 times
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I know. Corrected it while you were posting!
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Old 01-17-2012, 09:30 PM
 
Location: That star on your map in the middle of the East Coast, DMV
3,974 posts, read 3,456,237 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by tmac9wr View Post
I don't see how any of those Texas cities are going to top 10 million...ever. Houston and Dallas already encompass about 10,000 square miles apiece. I can't see any way these metros can expand much further outwards, so they're going to need to start filling in towards the city. Higher land values will follow.

With Texas' tax system having to rely on high property taxes due to no income taxes, this will drastically increase the cost of living of these cities. One of the only reasons these cities are growing at these ridiculous rates is because they offer an advantageous cost of living. Without their main draw, how can we expect these cities to continue to grow like that? Answer: we can't. On top of that, there are only so many people in Mexico. The massive influx of Mexicans to the Southwest metros will slow down soon enough.

I think ultimately, Dallas & Houston will top off somewhere around 7.5-8 million. Maybe one of them will get up to 8.5-9.

My 2030 MSA list would look something like this:

New York City: 21,000,000
Los Angeles: 15,000,000
Chicago: 10,300,000
Washington DC: 9,100,000 (result of Baltimore/Washington CSA becoming an MSA in the future)
San Francisco Bay: 8,600,000 (SF/SJ become a single MSA)
Dallas: 7,900,000
Houston: 7,600,000
Philadelphia: 6,700,000
Atlanta: 6,600,000
Miami: 6,300,000
Boston: 6,100,000
Phoenix: 5,300,000
Riverside: 5,200,000
Seattle: 4,400,000
Detroit: 3,900,000

If the DC/Baltimore CSA is over 8.5 million now and grew by 1 million the last ten years, how would it only have 9.1 by 2030? Whether you combine you want to combine the two MSA's or not, the CSA will be certainy be over 10 million by 2030 and may pass Chicago.
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Old 01-18-2012, 08:58 AM
 
1,830 posts, read 3,228,452 times
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A lot of long term growth will depend on International migration. If it continues to slow down, the largest metros will slow significatnly as most larger metros are already losing Domestic migration...

Look at NYC, losing quite a bit of Domestic net migrations, propped up by birth rate as there isn't quite enough International gain to offset the Domestic losses...

New York-Northern New Jersey-Long Island, NY-NJ-PA MSA Population and Components of Change -- Real Estate Center at Texas A&M University Home

Chicago, LA and others have more domestic loss than international gains lately. Only reason they show gains is due to net birth/death rate.

That's why the largest cities will only see 4-5% growth in the future (over 10 years), which is about the net death/birth rate. If the largest cities get a major International influx, then maybe they'll see >5% but for the most part, many from the largest metros are moving to mid-size metros.

OTOH, Dallas lately gets more Domestic in addition to International in-migration.
http://recenter.tamu.edu/data/pop/popm/cbsa19100.asp

If the US gets tighter on the borders and allows less overall, growth will of course slow down across the board. Many cities almost entirely depend on Intl for growth, some cities depend on half Intl for growth - outside birth rate.

Last edited by xenokc; 01-18-2012 at 09:24 AM..
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Old 01-18-2012, 09:24 AM
 
Location: Denver
6,628 posts, read 12,505,595 times
Reputation: 4054
Quote:
Originally Posted by the resident09 View Post
If the DC/Baltimore CSA is over 8.5 million now and grew by 1 million the last ten years, how would it only have 9.1 by 2030? Whether you combine you want to combine the two MSA's or not, the CSA will be certainy be over 10 million by 2030 and may pass Chicago.
That's true. The MSA will likely be at or around 10 million by that time.
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Old 01-18-2012, 09:28 AM
 
1,830 posts, read 3,228,452 times
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The bulk of DC growth is International in-migration. If the borders get tighter over next 20 years, DC/Balt growth may slow down.

Washington-Arlington-Alexandria, DC-VA-MD-WV MSA Population and Components of Change -- Real Estate Center at Texas A&M University Home
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