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Who says Toronto will be annexed to the U. S.? That's, by 2030? I heard that Canadiens live mostly on the American boarder because, well, they are planning an invasion..shhhh...
As far as Toronto is concerned does anyone foresee growth along the horseshoe connecting Toronto,Burlington, Hamilton, St. Catherines and Buffalo?
I'm not disputing that Raleigh/Durham deserve to be one metro at all. I think it is a blunder from the OMB office for splitting them, as a matter of fact. Omaha/Lincoln is in a grey area while Raleigh/Durham is not and therefore I am not at all comparing the two.
I have absolutely no idea as to why you think anbody is 'arguably' comparing the two and I frankly never had an interest to do so. All I am saying is that Omaha/Lincoln are rapidly growing straight for each other as are the cities in between. Some of the outlying counties meet the criteria to be a part of the MSA for both as well.
The difference:
Raleigh/Durham shouldn't have any grey area and I believe it was a mistake to separate them.
Omaha/Lincoln is in a grey area that is quickly approaching to not being a grey area.
I don't really get your logic. Twenty three miles of nothingness is going to take a long time to fill up. I grew up in Omaha, and I think Lincoln and Omaha are too far apart to ever be considered one metro.
Chicago and Milwaukee have metros that touch. My brother lives closer to Milwaukee in Wisconsin, but he is in the Chicago metro. Even though their metros touch, they'll never be considered one metro.
This is my list the top ten largest American cities in 2030.
1. LA - 26 million
2. NYC - 25 million
3. Houston - 14.5 million
4. Chicago - 14.3 million
5. DFW - 14 million
6. D.C. - 13.5 million
7. SF Bay Area - 13 million
8. Boston - 12.8 million
9. Atlanta - 12.5 million
10. Miami - 11 million
I really hope that Houston and DFW invest in heavy rail/rapid transit. Light rail can only do so much, even if they decide to build more light rail. Commuter rail could also help but more of it.
As for LA, NYC, Chicago, DC Area, SF Bay Area, Boston, Atlanta and Miami...I hope that they expand their heavy rail/rapid transit systems. The building and expansion of light rail plus commuter rail could help too.
All in all, these MSA's need adequate transit systems if those population predictions are true.
This is my list the top ten largest American cities in 2030.
1. LA - 26 million
2. NYC - 25 million
3. Houston - 14.5 million
4. Chicago - 14.3 million
5. DFW - 14 million
6. D.C. - 13.5 million
7. SF Bay Area - 13 million
8. Boston - 12.8 million
9. Atlanta - 12.5 million
10. Miami - 11 million
Thats more in line for the high estimates for the CSA's. also i would hate for a Boston of 13 million, we never, ever expand our highways or Transit fast enough to hold that growth.
2030 is a long time off...a lot can happen to an area in 20 years...both good and bad.
For Nashville, things seem to be on the up and up...we're growing at a pretty quick pace. Things could either take off to an even higher level (say, Atlanta/Charlotte/Raleigh for regional comparison) or they could level off/stay the same...or of course it's possible that something will affect our local economy and growth will become stagnant. I don't see the area losing population over the next 20 years, though.
My projections are based on Nashville having a pretty stable growth pattern. The suburban counties that ring around Nashville should continue to boom, and the core county will probably see steady growth (I could see it going up or down a little depending on more national trends of suburban vs. urban living). My projections are purely statistical, so they're not going to be perfect. It in no way forecasts the potential for certain areas to grow, due to addition of jobs, or for growth to slow down, due to economic or geographic constraints. I think the smaller, more rural counties are the hardest to predict. They could have stagnant growth, or they could easily double or even triple their population in a short time.
First off, current MSA counties:
county - 2010 population - 2030 projection(change)
*Clarksville's MSA currently includes Stewart County, TN, and Christian and Trigg Counties in KY. I did not include the other counties
**Bowling Green's MSA currently includes Edmonson County, KY, which I did not include in the projections.
***Simpson County is the geographic link between Bowling Green's MSA and Nashville's MSA - currently it is not assigned to either one...it has a small workforce, and is roughly split between the two metros...but not enough (at last check) to be included in either.
Possible new CSA total - 2,050,015 - 2,780,698 (+730,683)
Methodology:
I took the populations from the previous two Censuses (1990 & 2000) as the base for the growth projection. I did not use percentage growth (it can get really tricky with wildly changing percentages), but instead used the raw growth number patterns.
I started with the raw growth from 1990-2000 and from 2000-2010 and averaged them (column 1).
Then I took the 2000-2010 growth, and subtracted the 1990-2000 growth to get a "trend" direction (column 2).
I then took the average growth number and added it to the trend to get an idea of the future direction (column 3).
I thought this was better than adding the trend from the most recent raw number (which would make for more extreme acceleration or loss of growth). I then multiplied the average + trend by two to give me a 20 year figure (2030 projection - column 4).
I also multiplied the most recent raw growth by two (for a 20 year total - column 5) to act as a check against rising or lowering trends (just because a county gained 5,000 fewer than it did over the previous Census doesn't mean it will continue to gain even 5,000 less than that in the next Census - same can be said for counties that grew more than in previous years).
Then I took the average between the two 20 year growth numbers (average + trend and 2010 growth x2) to give me the final growth number (column 6 - rounded up on decimals) and added that to the 2010 Census population (column 7) to give me the overall projection for 2030.
Here are the figures, county by county, for those curious:
Bedford - (90) 30,411 - (00) 37,586 - (10) 45,058 - +7,175 90-00 - +7,472 00-10 - +7,323.5 average - +297 trend - +7,620.5 average+trend - +15,241 20 year - +14,944 2010x2 - +15,093 (averaged) - 60,151
Marshall - (90) 21,539 - (00) 26,767 - (10) 30,617 - +5,228 90-00 - +3,850 00-10 - +4,439 average - (-1,378) trend - +3,161 average+trend - +6,322 20 year - +7,700 2010x2 - +7,011 (averaged) - 37,628
Maury - (90) 54,812 - (00) 69,498 - (10) 80,956 - +14,686 90-00 - +11,458 00-10 - +13,072 average - (-3,228) trend - +9,844 average+trend - +19,688 20 year - +22,916 2010x2 - +21,302 (averaged) - 102,258
Montgomery - (90) 100,498 - (00) 134,768 - (10) 172,331 - +34,270 90-00 - +37,563 00-10 - +35,916.5 average - +3,293 trend - +39,209.5 average+trend - +78,419 20 year - +75,126 2010x2 - +76,773 (averaged) - 249,104
Simpson, KY - (90) 15,145 - (00) 16,405 - (10) 17,327 - +1,260 90-00 - +922 00-10 - +1,091 average - (-338) trend - +753 average+trend - +1,506 20 year - +1,844 2010x2 - +1,675 (averaged) - 19,002
Warren, KY - (90) 76,673 - (00) 92,522 - (10) 113,792 - +15,849 90-00 - +21,270 00-10 - +18,559.5 average - +5,421 trend - +23,980.5 average+trend - +47,961 20 year - +42,540 2010x2 - +45,251 - 159,043
Key:
(90) = 1990 Census population
(00) = 2000 Census population
(10) = 2010 Census population
90-00 = raw growth from the 1990 to the 2000 Census
00-10 = raw growth from the 2000 to the 2010 Census
average = average raw growth per Census
trend = 2000-2010 growth minus 1990-2000 growth (shows increase or decrease of growth)
average+trend average raw growth + trend #
20 year = average+trend # multiplied by 2
2010x2 = growth from 2000-2010 multiplied by two
(averaged) = the sum of the 20 year growth numbers divided by two
So my prediction would be about 2.4 million for the MSA (with additions)...a low of 2.0 and a high of 2.9. The CSA would be about 2.8 with a low of 2.4 and a high of 3.4.
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