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Old 07-04-2007, 02:43 AM
 
150 posts, read 645,104 times
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This is my list the top ten largest American cities in 2030.
1. LA - 26 million
2. NYC - 25 million
3. Houston - 14.5 million
4. Chicago - 14.3 million
5. DFW - 14 million
6. D.C. - 13.5 million
7. SF Bay Area - 13 million
8. Boston - 12.8 million
9. Atlanta - 12.5 million
10. Miami - 11 million
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Old 07-04-2007, 02:58 AM
 
150 posts, read 645,104 times
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Houston will pass Chicago sooner than people think, as it is predicted to add 3 million to MSA in 10 years. Houston's growth rate will only increase as the city becomes more global. The reason i think Houston will pass DFW and stay ahead is because Houston has geographical advantages and economical advantages over DFW. At the end of the day DFW will always be landlocked with no access to the sea as will Atlanta. Almost every global city in the world has access to the ocean in some form (rivers, gulfs, bays, etc.) london, tokyo, nyc, la, honk kong, paris, toronto, chicago, sydney, etc. The only way DFW gets to the ocean is THROUGH houston. Houston is also the energy capital of the world, and also has the largest medical center in the world, so you can see Houston already dominates two major industries. The Port of Houston is one of the largest ports in the world, Houston Intercontinental is growing faster than any other major US airport. These are all valid reasons for someone to think Houston will grow very fast in the coming decades. Houston's close proximity to Mexico also gives Houston an edge over DFW. Mexico is a newly industialized coutry, and one of the two closest major US city is Houston (the other being Los Angeles). Houston is also always rated the highest in employment growth each year, so thats also a positive sign. Dont get me wrong DFW will grow fast too, but I think over the long haul Houston's metro will be bigger and more significant due to it's greater international status and the mentioned advantages. this is my opinion, im interested in the opinions of others.
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Old 07-04-2007, 09:22 AM
 
Location: Midessa, Texas Home Yangzhou, Jiangsu temporarily
1,505 posts, read 3,844,408 times
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I am going to make an unorthodox but more optimistic prediction.

I recently read an article that said that Mexico's birth rate has dropped dramatically since 1990. Unfortunately I didn't save the link but I will try to find it. Anyway, the basic idea of the article was that illegal immigration to the U.S. would soon drop off because of these declining birthrates in Latin America. Because most of America's population growth is due to immigration and not natural increase, this should lead to a reduction in growth and possibly even an overall decline in population.

Also, I believe that globalization may take the emphasis off of America and Europe. Look at Dubai, it is one of the fastest growing cities in the world right now. Many companies are moving their headquarters to Dubai, most famously was Halliburton announcing that it was moving its HQ from Houston to Dubai. This could become a major trend.

Many of the population estimates above are over double their current amounts. For example the estimate for DFW is 14 million, it currently has 5.6 million. If we assume that this holds true for most the U.S., the national population will be well above 600 million. I think that would be a nightmare.

Many of our big cities are already struggling with traffic, water supplies, and sprawl. Do we really want to pursue population growth at any cost? My vote is no. We should instead pursue a policy of population stabilization and sustainability.
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Old 07-04-2007, 10:17 AM
 
Location: Bronx, NY
2,806 posts, read 15,200,407 times
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Yeah are you talking about metro areas? Because your figures are way off if you are talking about cities. NYC only has 8 million people. By 2030 we are supposed to add another million people and that number will go up to 9 million.
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Old 07-04-2007, 10:41 AM
 
Location: Washington D.C. By way of Texas
18,631 posts, read 27,042,193 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Lucidus View Post

Many of the population estimates above are over double their current amounts. For example the estimate for DFW is 14 million, it currently has 5.6 million. If we assume that this holds true for most the U.S., the national population will be well above 600 million. I think that would be a nightmare.

.
DFW currently has 6.4 million in the CSA and 6.1 million in the MSA. Also, Dallas is also the regional leader in finance and trade. It is one of the top cities in the IT industry and a hub for telecommunications. Also, DFW international is a major inland port as well as a passenger port for airplanes, of course. They also are building a giant port in Southeast Dallas County that will continue to diversify Dallas economy. It is also a huge transportation hub being that it sits in an area that you can easily get goods from around the country. DFW airport is still growing fast in itself and it's the 3rd busiest, if I'm not mistaken, airport in the nation. Also, don't underestimate that NAFTA runs right through Dallas coming from Mexico.

I do believe Houston and Dallas will pass the Chicago metro. But I don't believe they will pass them by 2030. Dallas has the better chance of doing it since they are closer to doing so and growing at the same clip as Houston. I don't believe Houston or Dallas will receive 8-9 million in 23 years. That's being a bit tooo much. I think DFW will have around 9 million and Houston 8.6 million in 2030. That's if they continue to grow at current levels and history says they won't. But they will experience healthy growth.
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Old 07-04-2007, 10:48 AM
 
Location: Phoenix metro
20,005 posts, read 69,389,357 times
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Great, Houston passing Chicago? Just another thing to inflate Texan egos.

Houston might pass up Chicago, but Chicago will always remain a far better city because, well, because. You can polish a turd all you want, but its still a turd. Chicago will ALWAYS be the second city.
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Old 07-04-2007, 11:25 AM
 
Location: Lincoln, Nebraska (moving to Ohio)
673 posts, read 3,751,948 times
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Only 23 years until 2030!

Anyway, I think the New York CSA/MSA will still be the largest in the nation. Los Angeles will be #2 and it will be a distant number #2 I think, I just think that because of the out-migration and the housing values that they will not have population increase as fast.

Chicago is just under 10 million people now in their CSA and it will probubly have Milwaukee in the CSA in 2010 or 2020 so Chicago will continue to be #3.

Although, the Washington DC/Baltimore area will be a close #4. They are fast-growing and that corridor has about 8 million people I believe and is one of the most affluent metropolitan areas in the country.

I think Atlanta, Houston, Dallas will all be in the vicinity of the same size. Although, if the energy boom continues then Houston will obviously probubly be the largest. But then again Dallas/Fort Worth is quite a bit larger then huger then Houston, but Houston will more then likely catch-up and Atlanta will probubly slow before 2030. This is just a guess. All and all, for 5th place its a close-call between Atlanta, Dallas/Fort Worth and Houston.

Then again the Boston CSA area is larger then all four now, but they have very stagnant growth so they will likely be around #6 in two decades

As far as midwestern metros:
Chicago will always be #1
Detroit despite its economic failings, unless they continue for decades will be next at #2.

Minneapolis/St. Paul CSA has 3.5 million people now, but they are not growing that fast so they continue to be number 3but they continue to sprawl out and out more and more into Wisconsin and more and more density up towards St. Cloud.
They might be close to Detroit CSA in two decades if Twin cities metro growth increases to 1990s levels and Detroit's economy continues in the present condition its in.

#4. in the midwest will more then likely be a new Cincinnati/Dayton CSA they are 40 miles away have around 3 million people in their CSA's already. Cincinnati also has a very stable, good economy/
#5. Kansas City: It just seems like this metro areas is on the verge of a big growth spurt even though its far behind St. Louis and even a little behind Cleveland but then if Cleveland adds Akron to its CSA then Cleveland will be #5
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Old 07-04-2007, 11:31 AM
 
150 posts, read 645,104 times
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Quote:
I think DFW will have around 9 million and Houston 8.6 million in 2030
First of al Houston will have slightly more people than DFW, I've already mentioned the reasons why before. And second, i dont think they will add only 3 million in the next 23 years, think about how much smaller Houston was 20 years ago, and now since it is a global city, the growth will only grow. Asians are already the fastest growing percentage-wise, all of this adds up to phenominal growth. maybe not as high as I predicted, but Houston will definetaly surpass the 10 or 11 million mark. I cant say about DFW, but it will grow too but not as fast as Houston.
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Old 07-04-2007, 11:33 AM
 
Location: Texas
2,703 posts, read 2,604,303 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by NewYorkcapitaloftheworld View Post
This is my list the top ten largest American cities in 2030.
1. LA - 26 million
2. NYC - 25 million
3. Houston - 14.5 million
4. Chicago - 14.3 million
5. DFW - 14 million
6. D.C. - 13.5 million
7. SF Bay Area - 13 million
8. Boston - 12.8 million
9. Atlanta - 12.5 million
10. Miami - 11 million
I got mine (Miami will never be that large for one):

1. LA - 27M
2. NYC 26M
3. Chicago - 14M
5. DFW - 13.3M
6. Houston - 13M

I'll do the rest later.

I doubt DFW and Houston will be that large though. This is confusing.
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Old 07-04-2007, 11:40 AM
 
Location: Texas
2,703 posts, read 2,604,303 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Spade View Post
DFW currently has 6.4 million in the CSA and 6.1 million in the MSA. Also, Dallas is also the regional leader in finance and trade. It is one of the top cities in the IT industry and a hub for telecommunications. Also, DFW international is a major inland port as well as a passenger port for airplanes, of course. They also are building a giant port in Southeast Dallas County that will continue to diversify Dallas economy. It is also a huge transportation hub being that it sits in an area that you can easily get goods from around the country. DFW airport is still growing fast in itself and it's the 3rd busiest, if I'm not mistaken, airport in the nation. Also, don't underestimate that NAFTA runs right through Dallas coming from Mexico.
Wel...Dallas is obviously the regional leader in finance, but definitely not trade. Houston holds that with the Port of Houston. That port in Southeast Dallas County is in conjunction with the Port of Houston. The POH needs that to relieve all the traffic it has. The articles in Dallas saying that the boats will pull up to Houston, but everything else (customs, deciding where they will go, etc.) will be done in Dallas was clearly false. DFW Airport grew by 1%, while IAH grew by over 7%. IAH already has more international passengers (while having about 15M less passengers). NAFTA was going to run through Houston, but our leaders here didn't want it to ruin our landscape (it was going to be a fourth loop around the city).

Quote:
I do believe Houston and Dallas will pass the Chicago metro. But I don't believe they will pass them by 2030. Dallas has the better chance of doing it since they are closer to doing so and growing at the same clip as Houston. I don't believe Houston or Dallas will receive 8-9 million in 23 years. That's being a bit tooo much. I think DFW will have around 9 million and Houston 8.6 million in 2030. That's if they continue to grow at current levels and history says they won't. But they will experience healthy growth.
I believe that as well. Houston planners believe that three million more people will call Houston home by 2025-2030. That would put Houston at 8.6M in 2030. Houston's industries are more international/world industries than the one in Dallas (NASA, Medical, Energy). Houston may start growing faster than Dallas as these industries grow.
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