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Old 07-19-2019, 11:54 AM
 
217 posts, read 165,976 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Republic of Michigan View Post
I'm confused as to what you mean. In your original post, you listed urban areas and stated:

"Detroit - 3,387,853 (1,959 square miles)"

You examined 1959 square miles which exactly amounts to Wayne, Oakland, and Macomb counties - it has a population of 3,887,853 as of 2018.

If you only want to look at only 1337 square miles to constitute the urban core (some people consider this as Detroit's urban core) then the population is 3,734,090 as of 2000.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Metro_Detroit
I see what you were getting at now. Yeah, the number is 3,887,853. I mistyped it.
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Old 07-19-2019, 02:17 PM
 
217 posts, read 165,976 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by BlueChicago View Post
This is the most arbitrary and useless comparison I've ever seen.

What is the point of making up some arbitrary square mile cut-off? MSA has a clearly defined definition and calculated values. You clearly just made up some definition that made your city look better...
Glad I heard back from the authority on this. The cut off was not arbitrary. I used Cleveland then Cleveland-Akron-Canton as a base because A) Cleveland is geographically a small MSA and B) Cleveland-Akron-Canton combined is still smaller geographically than every other MSA sans Milwaukee. ... and still less than half the size as St. Louis and Minneapolis' MSAs. So I was (non-scientifically) trying to see how the population of the other MSAs if they were the same size as Cleveland, then Cleveland-Akron-Canton.

You may still think that's arbitrary, but so are MSAs. In the case of Cleveland-Akron-Canton you have this:

1. Cleveland's urban area excludes about 200,000 people from its own MSA because Lorain-Elyria is considered its own urban area. (St. Louis and Detroit also have this, though in St. Louis' case, it's 80,000 in the Alton urban area).

2. Cleveland's urban area extends into the Akron MSA with the arbitrary cutoff line roughly being Route 303 in Summit County.

3. Akron's urban area extends into the Cleveland MSA with the inclusion of Wadsworth, which is in Medina County on the border of Summit County.

4. The cut off between Akron and Canton (both MSA and urban area) is the arbitrary Mount Pleasant Road. Geographically the Akron-Canton Airport is located within two MSAs. Here's another example, there are two Fortune 1,000 companies headquartered on Mount Pleasant Road (Timken and Diebold ... though Diebold is on the corner of Mayfair and Mount Pleasant and has a Mayfair address). The closest point of each other's property lines is probably 2,000 feet, basically one is one the east side of I-77 and the other is on the west side of the highway. Timken, due to it being on the south side of the street is in the Canton MSA/urban area and Diebold on the north side is in the Akron MSA/urban area.

https://www.google.com/maps/place/Th...2!4d-81.433021

The link shows what I'm talking about above. Does that look like two separate MSAs or Urban Areas?

Anyway, using Urban Area would be a similar, and more accurate than I did before, way to look at it. Thanks to seeing another thread, I used the 2017 estimates.

Here is Urban Area population (within the MSA)

1. Detroit: 3,952,339 (includes South Lyon-Howell-Brighton and Port Huron)
2. Minneapolis-St. Paul: 2,854,190
3. St. Louis: 2,238,840 (includes Alton)
4. Cleveland: 1,944,660 (includes Lorain-Elyria)
5. Kansas City: 1,687,761 (Includes Lee's Summit)
6. Cincinnati: 1,670,680
7. Indianapolis: 1,604,134
8. Columbus: 1,520,011
9. Milwaukee: 1,387,245

Urban Area by urban agglomeration (contiguous defined UAs)
1. Detroit: 4,277,421 (adds Ann Arbor)
2. Minneapolis: 2,854,190
3. Cleveland: 2,785,603 (adds Akron and Canton)
4. Cincinnati: 2,424,300 (adds Dayton and Springfield)
5. St. Louis: 2,238,840
6. Indianapolis: 1,691,572 (adds Anderson)
7. Kansas City: 1,687,761
8. Columbus: 1,520,011 (as of 2010, Newark, about 90,000, wasn't considered and agglomerate, but probably will be)
9. Milwaukee: 1,387,245 (could eventually form with Chicago as an agglomerate).

By GDP (this includes agglomerates and by entire MSA(s), not just Urban area):

1. Detroit: 284.112
2. Minneapolis: 260.106 (Per capita MSP is slightly ahead of Chicago)
3. Cleveland: 192.269
4. Cincinnati: 183.676
5. St. Louis: 161.281
6. Indianapolis: 143.873
7. Columbus: 136.296
8. Kansas City: 131.092
9. Milwaukee: 105.427

This pretty much results in the same thing, IMO:

Detroit (none of this counts the 700,000 on the Windsor side of the river) is clearly No. 1 in population and GDP, with MSP coming in second and right behind in GDP.

While looking strictly at Cleveland (alone) and St. Louis, St. Louis has a slight edge in UA population and GDP (though Cleveland's per person GDP is much higher $67,000 to $57,000). But Cleveland does have another 840,000 people in adjacent urban areas that St. Louis does not. And even when combined (Akron nor Canton are GDP powerhouses), Cleveland-Akron-Canton would still have a higher per person GDP ... $61,000 to $57,000. So, IMO, Cleveland is an easy No. 3. Plus, you can even exclude Canton from the equation and it would still be over 2.5 million and a GDP of 175 billion, and that would actually boost the per person GDP because Canton ($45,000) is pathetic in that regard. But I used to live there and I still work there, so I see it on ground level that people in Canton overwhelmingly go to Cleveland for entertainment purposes and almost all the regional or high end shopping destinations/restaurants are in the Cleveland area.

The fourth spot still remains St. Louis vs. Cincinnati and it could go either way, though before I had Cincinnati No. 4, but I now think I will flip that to St. Louis. Cincinnati is in the conversation because it and Dayton have grown to combine, which I think helps in terms of importance, but it's not apples to apples in comparing it to the relationship of Akron and Cleveland, which are in adjacent counties and as I mentioned their Urban Areas overlap into each others' MSA. Cincinnati to Dayton would be more comparable to Cleveland and Canton since they are both two counties away. Without Dayton in the equation, St. Louis has nearly 600,000 more people in its UA than Cincinnati alone, and even when adding Dayton, Cincinnati only makes it about 200,000 larger. That's not a big enough gap to justify having Cincinnati above St. Louis.

After that, you can make arguments for any of the rest. Personally, I would go: Indianapolis, Kansas City, Columbus and then Milwaukee (which I think its proximity to Chicago could be a detriment in terms of its importance).

Last edited by ClevelandBrown; 07-19-2019 at 02:33 PM..
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Old 07-19-2019, 02:28 PM
 
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ClevelandBrown View Post
Glad I heard back from the authority on this. The cut off was not arbitrary. I used Cleveland then Cleveland-Akron-Canton as a base because A) Cleveland is geographically a small MSA and B) Cleveland-Akron-Canton combined is still smaller geographically than every other MSA sans Milwaukee. ... and still less than half the size as St. Louis and Minneapolis' MSAs. So I was (non-scientifically) trying to see how the population of the other MSAs if they were the same size as Cleveland, then Cleveland-Akron-Canton.

You may still think that's arbitrary, but so are MSAs. In the case of Cleveland-Akron-Canton you have this:

1. Cleveland's urban area excludes about 200,000 people from its own MSA because Lorain-Elyria is considered its own urban area. (St. Louis and Detroit also have this, though in St. Louis' case, it's 80,000 in the Alton urban area).

2. Cleveland's urban area extends into the Akron MSA with the arbitrary cutoff line roughly being Route 303 in Summit County.

3. Akron's urban area extends into the Cleveland MSA with the inclusion of Wadsworth, which is in Medina County on the border of Summit County.

4. The cut off between Akron and Canton (both MSA and urban area) is the arbitrary Mount Pleasant Road. Geographically the Akron-Canton Airport is located within two MSAs. Here's another example, there are two Fortune 1,000 companies headquartered on Mount Pleasant Road (Timken and Diebold ... though Diebold is on the corner of Mayfair and Mount Pleasant and has a Mayfair address). The closest point of each other's property lines is probably 2,000 feet, basically one is one the east side of I-77 and the other is on the west side of the highway. Timken, due to it being on the south side of the street is in the Canton MSA/urban area and Diebold on the north side is in the Akron MSA/urban area.

Anyway, using Urban Area would be a similar, and more accurate, way to look at it. Thanks to seeing another thread, I used the 2017 estimates.

Here is Urban Area population (within the MSA)

1. Detroit: 3,952,339 (includes South Lyon-Howell-Brighton and Port Huron)
2. Minneapolis-St. Paul: 2,854,190
3. St. Louis: 2,238,840 (includes Alton)
4. Cleveland: 1,944,660 (includes Lorain-Elyria)
5. Kansas City: 1,687,761 (Includes Lee's Summit)
6. Cincinnati: 1,670,680
7. Indianapolis: 1,604,134
8. Columbus: 1,520,011
9. Milwaukee: 1,387,245

Urban Area by urban agglomeration (contiguous defined UAs)
1. Detroit: 4,277,421 (adds Ann Arbor)
2. Minneapolis: 2,854,190
3. Cleveland: 2,785,603 (adds Akron and Canton)
4. Cincinnati: 2,424,300 (adds Dayton and Springfield)
5. St. Louis: 2,238,840
6. Indianapolis: 1,691,572 (adds Anderson)
7. Kansas City: 1,687,761
8. Columbus: 1,520,011 (as of 2010, Newark, about 90,000, wasn't considered and agglomerate, but probably will be)
9. Milwaukee: 1,387,245 (could eventually form with Chicago as an agglomerate).

By GDP (this includes agglomerates and by entire MSA(s), not just Urban area):

1. Detroit: 284.112
2. Minneapolis: 260.106 (Per capita MSP is slightly ahead of Chicago)
3. Cleveland: 192.269
4. Cincinnati: 183.676
5. St. Louis: 161.281
6. Indianapolis: 143.873
7. Columbus: 136.296
8. Kansas City: 131.092
9. Milwaukee: 105.427

This pretty much results in the same thing, IMO:

Detroit (none of this counts the 700,000 on the Windsor side of the river) is clearly No. 1 in population and GDP, with MSP coming in second and right behind in GDP.

While looking strictly at Cleveland (alone) and St. Louis, St. Louis has a slight edge in UA population and GDP (though Cleveland's per person GDP is much higher $67,000 to $57,000). But Cleveland does have another 840,000 people in close proximity that St. Louis does not. And even when combined (Akron nor Canton are GDP powerhouses), Cleveland-Akron-Canton would still have a higher per person GDP ... $61,000 to $57,000. So, IMO, Cleveland is an easy No. 3. Plus, you can even exclude Canton from the equation and it would still be over 2.5 million and a GDP of 175 billion, and that would actually boost the per person GDP because Canton ($45,000) is pathetic in that regard. But I used to live there and I still work there, so I see it on ground level that people in Canton overwhelmingly go to Cleveland for entertainment purposes and almost all the regional or high end shopping destinations/restaurants are in the Cleveland area.

The fourth spot still remains St. Louis vs. Cincinnati and it could go either way, though before I had Cincinnati No. 4, but I now think I will flip that to St. Louis. Cincinnati is in the conversation because it and Dayton have grown to combine, which I think helps in terms of importance, but it's not apples to apples in comparing it to the relationship of Akron and Cleveland, which are in adjacent counties and as I mentioned their Urban Areas overlap into each others' MSA. Cincinnati to Dayton would be more comparable to Cleveland and Canton since they are both two counties away. Without Dayton in the equation, St. Louis has nearly 600,000 more people in its UA than Cincinnati alone, and even when adding Dayton, Cincinnati only makes it about 200,000 larger. That's not a big enough gap to justify having Cincinnati above St. Louis.

After that, you can make arguments for any of the rest. Personally, I would go: Indianapolis, Kansas City, Columbus and then Milwaukee (which I think its proximity to Chicago could be a detriment in terms of its importance).
Milwaukee's MSA has shrunk, due to areas of it being considered, now, a part of the Chicago MSA. Maybe this will continue to happen, and I'm guessing it may. Milwaukee is still its own city, and I think your assumption that it may be a detriment, due to close proximity to Chicago, may be incorrect. It could end up being a huge plus for Milwaukee....neither of us really can say. But I wouldn't assume, as you are, that it might be a detriment. Much might come Milwaukee's way, due to the closeness of Chicago. The plus for Milwaukee, may be that it's in a different state, with very close proximity to one of the country's largest cities. Also, Milwaukee's GDP per capita, is higher than some of those cities ranked above it, in GDP.

Last edited by Enean; 07-19-2019 at 02:37 PM..
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Old 07-19-2019, 03:25 PM
 
Location: St. Louis
2,482 posts, read 2,237,540 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ClevelandBrown View Post
Glad I heard back from the authority on this. The cut off was not arbitrary. I used Cleveland then Cleveland-Akron-Canton as a base because A) Cleveland is geographically a small MSA and B) Cleveland-Akron-Canton combined is still smaller geographically than every other MSA sans Milwaukee. ... and still less than half the size as St. Louis and Minneapolis' MSAs. So I was (non-scientifically) trying to see how the population of the other MSAs if they were the same size as Cleveland, then Cleveland-Akron-Canton.

You may still think that's arbitrary, but so are MSAs. In the case of Cleveland-Akron-Canton you have this:

1. Cleveland's urban area excludes about 200,000 people from its own MSA because Lorain-Elyria is considered its own urban area. (St. Louis and Detroit also have this, though in St. Louis' case, it's 80,000 in the Alton urban area).
Alton is 20 miles north of downtown St. Louis. As someone who is even originally from the Illinois side of the river (known as the Metro East), I have never heard of Alton supporting its own urban area. It's not even the largest city or county seat in Madison County, nor the largest city in the Metro East.
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Old 07-19-2019, 03:59 PM
 
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Quote:
Originally Posted by PerseusVeil View Post
Alton is 20 miles north of downtown St. Louis. As someone who is even originally from the Illinois side of the river (known as the Metro East), I have never heard of Alton supporting its own urban area. It's not even the largest city or county seat in Madison County, nor the largest city in the Metro East.
I never knew that either, but yeah, for whatever reason Alton is designated with having its own Urban Area. Just like I never realized that Lorain-Elyria was not part of Cleveland's designated Urban Area. In that case, the two cities at least have a combined population of 110,000 (65K and 55K)

South Lyon-Howell-Brighton in Oakland County may be the weirdest designation. Combined, the three cities have less than 30,000, but yet they are considered their own Urban Area (of 126,000, for that matter) separate from Detroit.
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Old 07-19-2019, 04:10 PM
 
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ClevelandBrown View Post
I never knew that either, but yeah, for whatever reason Alton is designated with having its own Urban Area. Just like I never realized that Lorain-Elyria was not part of Cleveland's designated Urban Area. In that case, the two cities at least have a combined population of 110,000 (65K and 55K)

South Lyon-Howell-Brighton in Oakland County may be the weirdest designation. Combined, the three cities have less than 30,000, but yet they are considered their own Urban Area (of 126,000, for that matter) separate from Detroit.
Howell and Brighton are actually in Livingston County which is west of Oakland. I can imagine there are enough gaps of 1000 ppsm between them and the main urbanized portion in Oakland County for them to be statistically separated. Keep in mind that there are no unincorporated areas in Michigan due to its unique township setups. While those three cities may look small on paper they are surrounded by several developed decently sized townships. Those cities are actually closer to Ann Arbor than Detroit, there’s a decent chance a lot of that growth is heading south into Ann Arbor, instead of east into the main Detroit cluster.
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Old 07-19-2019, 08:12 PM
 
217 posts, read 165,976 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Enean View Post
Milwaukee's MSA has shrunk, due to areas of it being considered, now, a part of the Chicago MSA. Maybe this will continue to happen, and I'm guessing it may. Milwaukee is still its own city, and I think your assumption that it may be a detriment, due to close proximity to Chicago, may be incorrect. It could end up being a huge plus for Milwaukee....neither of us really can say. But I wouldn't assume, as you are, that it might be a detriment. Much might come Milwaukee's way, due to the closeness of Chicago. The plus for Milwaukee, may be that it's in a different state, with very close proximity to one of the country's largest cities. Also, Milwaukee's GDP per capita, is higher than some of those cities ranked above it, in GDP.
Good points. There is definitely upside to being linked with Chicago, even if it's as an UA agglomerate (at least for the foreseeable future, it probably won't merge into a CSA, let alone MSA).

What I was getting at was that I didn't even know how close the two cities had gotten to even being in the conversation that they could be linked in some shape until the past 5-10 years. Always knew Milwaukee was Milwaukee and the top city in Wisconsin and Chicago was Chicago. The more they combine, Milwaukee may lose some of its standalone perception and get lumped in as Chicago's little brother.

Granted, Dayton is not as prominent as Milwaukee, but I think you are starting to see that with it and Cincinnati sprawling together. I think a common perception is that Dayton is simply an extension of Cincinnati. That helps Cincinnati's perception because it's the bigger if the two, but I'd guess that a lot of people don't really know that Dayton was a near 1 million metro, with it's own media market and international airport long before its sprawl headed south on I-75 and Cincinnati's moved north where they met at basically Hamilton/Middletown.

Akron and Canton are somewhat similar. Combined, they would be slightly larger than Dayton. But the biggest difference is that both Akron and Canton have always been in the Cleveland media market and while they share an airport, it was more a regional one that acted as the low cost alternative (AirTran/Southwest) to Hopkins when Hopkins was a Continental/United Hub. Akron-Canton was breaking its passenger records year after year and became one of the top 100 airports in the country in terms of passengers until Hopkins was dehubbed. That was due to how many Clevelanders were using it over Hopkins.

But once Hopkins dehubbed and it opened gates there, Southwest and Allegiant almost immediately moved all its Akron-Canton routes to Hopkins, knowing they will still draw the same clientele.

What I'm getting at is that in these situations, whether perception or reality, the biggest city in the group will likely get the most benefit. And while other MW cities do actually offer some of the same amenities as Chicago, it is in a class by itself. It may be better off if Milwaukee (one of the MW cities that can make the amenities claim) does Milwaukee... even if that means being a dense but smaller urban area all its own.
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Old 07-19-2019, 08:18 PM
 
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ClevelandBrown View Post
Good points. There is definitely upside to being linked with Chicago, even if it's as an UA agglomerate (at least for the foreseeable future, it probably won't merge into a CSA, let alone MSA).

What I was getting at was that I didn't even know how close the two cities had gotten to even being in the conversation that they could be linked in some shape until the past 5-10 years. Always knew Milwaukee was Milwaukee and the top city in Wisconsin and Chicago was Chicago. The more they combine, Milwaukee may lose some of its standalone perception and get lumped in as Chicago's little brother.

Granted, Dayton is not as prominent as Milwaukee, but I think you are starting to see that with it and Cincinnati sprawling together. I think a common perception is that Dayton is simply an extension of Cincinnati. That helps Cincinnati's perception because it's the bigger if the two, but I'd guess that a lot of people don't really know that Dayton was a near 1 million metro, with it's own media market and international airport long before its sprawl headed south on I-75 and Cincinnati's moved north where they met at basically Hamilton/Middletown.

Akron and Canton are somewhat similar. Combined, they would be slightly larger than Dayton. But the biggest difference is that both Akron and Canton have always been in the Cleveland media market and while they share an airport, it was more a regional one that acted as the low cost alternative (AirTran/Southwest) to Hopkins when Hopkins was a Continental/United Hub. Akron-Canton was breaking its passenger records year after year and became one of the top 100 airports in the country in terms of passengers until Hopkins was dehubbed. That was due to how many Clevelanders were using it over Hopkins.

But once Hopkins dehubbed and it opened gates there, Southwest and Allegiant almost immediately moved all its Akron-Canton routes to Hopkins, knowing they will still draw the same clientele.

What I'm getting at is that in these situations, whether perception or reality, the biggest city in the group will likely get the most benefit. And while other MW cities do actually offer some of the same amenities as Chicago, it is in a class by itself. It may be better off if Milwaukee (one of the MW cities that can make the amenities claim) does Milwaukee... even if that means being a dense but smaller urban area all its own.
Milwaukee stands alone, and "does" Milwaukee, just fine. No concerns there. Milwaukee is hosting the Democratic National Convention...not Chicago. It still benefits from proximity to Chicago, though, in everyday life.
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Old 07-19-2019, 08:43 PM
 
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Originally Posted by Enean View Post
Milwaukee stands alone, and "does" Milwaukee, just fine. No concerns there. Milwaukee is hosting the Democratic National Convention...not Chicago. It still benefits from proximity to Chicago, though, in everyday life.
Exactly. Sounds crazy but with other areas catching up to Chicago in population, Chicago, for ego, may need Milwaukee (and its 1.3 million) more than Milwaukee needs Chicago.

Really, both are fine on their own.

As for the DNC. Not to discredit Milwaukee's credentials but that was a strategic choice and nothing else. The Dems knew they messed up by taking Wisconsin for granted and they want to right that.

I'll say the same about Cleveland and the RNC. Northeast Ohio is the last place the GOP would come in this state if it wasn't for a specific purpose. In order for a Dem to won a statewide race here, they have to run up the numbers here. The GOP has to win Ohio in a presidential election and they accomplished that. So it wasn't so much that Cleveland is this awesome city. More it was a bigger picture for them.

Wisconsin, on the other hand, is a state (along with Michigan) the Dems have to win. Makes sense they would host in a worthy city that may deliver that result. The only two choices the Dems had was Milwaukee or Detroit, imo. But Michigan, due to demographics, is a little safer overall, hence Milwaukee.

Dont want to devolve this politically, just calling it as it is.
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Old 07-20-2019, 02:39 AM
 
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I remember attending a Milwaukee Brewers baseball game in 1982 at the old Milwaukee County Stadium. They were playing the Chicago White Sox. A group of White Sox fans were sitting together and one of them had a sign that said "Milwaukee is just a suburb of Chicago".
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