U.S. CitiesCity-Data Forum Index
Go Back   City-Data Forum > U.S. Forums > General U.S.
 [Register]
Please register to participate in our discussions with 2 million other members - it's free and quick! Some forums can only be seen by registered members. After you create your account, you'll be able to customize options and access all our 15,000 new posts/day with fewer ads.
View detailed profile (Advanced) or search
site with Google Custom Search

Search Forums  (Advanced)
Reply Start New Thread
 
Old 12-27-2010, 05:45 AM
 
Location: Tower of Heaven
4,023 posts, read 6,444,575 times
Reputation: 1440

Advertisements

This is a very interesting article

Quote:
Demography favors Democrats, as the influence of Latinos and millennials grows. Geography favors the GOP, as the fastest-growing states are solid red. A look at America’s political horizon.
In the crushing wave that flattened much of the Democratic Party last month, two left-leaning states survived not only intact but in some ways bluer than before. New York and California, long-time rivals for supremacy, may both have seen better days; but for Democrats, at least, the prospects there seem better than ever.
That these two states became such outliers from the rest of the United States reflects both changing economics and demographics. Over the past decade, New York and California underperformed in terms of job creation across a broad array of industries. Although still great repositories of wealth, their dominant metropolitan areas increasingly bifurcated between the affluent and poor. The middle class continues to ebb away for more opportune climes.
Demography vs. Geography: Understanding the Political Future | Newgeography.com

I think the author is right, really.
I think the geography is the best for the moment, and GOP has many advantages on the short term and maybe medium term.
In the long term Democrats are advantaged by demography.If GOP doesn't become more open-minded (gays, immigration, other races) Democrats will lead and crush GOP for many decades.

What do you think about it ?
Reply With Quote Quick reply to this message

 
Old 12-27-2010, 09:20 AM
 
704 posts, read 1,505,629 times
Reputation: 630
1.) Latinos are generally more conservative as a whole. President Bush actually won the Hispanic vote in Texas, and came close to winning it in 2004. The issues that Latinos care most about--traditional family values, the sanctity of human life, entrepeneurship--are all GOP agenda items. The problem is that the GOP has allowed the rancor of the anti-immigration crowd to alienate even traditionally conservative Hispanics. So this one's easy: stop sounding racist and you start winning the Hispanic vote. But in no way are Hispanics a liberal voting bloc like Jews and blacks.

2.) Long-term demographics favor religious conservatives. The kitschy liberal San Francisco couple isn't having kids, while the church-goers in the suburbs are having 3, 4, and even 5 kids. And it's hard to analyze the youth vote, because as people grow up they almost always grow more, not less, conservative. Young people voting Democrat today may not vote that way in ten years. Having a family can change your views pretty quickly.

Nevertheless, it is true that young people are more liberal at this point in their lives than previous generations. If that holds true for the next generation, then you're right: social conservatism is dead as a political platform and our politics will probably continue to look more and more like Europe's.
Reply With Quote Quick reply to this message
 
Old 12-27-2010, 09:36 AM
 
Location: Up on the moon laughing down on you
18,509 posts, read 28,210,269 times
Reputation: 7599
Quote:
Originally Posted by GoneNative View Post
1.) Latinos are generally more conservative as a whole.
They may have been true, but that did not stop them from voting 65 and 75% democrat in most states

Quote:
President Bush actually won the Hispanic vote in Texas, and came close to winning it in 2004.
Bush was fairly a fairly popular governor, and he actively wooed the latinos with all sorts of promises. They did not vote for bush because they were stalwart conservatives,,, they voted for him because

1 They knew him (or at least they thought they did)

2. He was their governor (hometown advantage)

3. He promised them the world (but did not pay up)
Reply With Quote Quick reply to this message
 
Old 12-27-2010, 09:47 AM
 
Location: Tower of Heaven
4,023 posts, read 6,444,575 times
Reputation: 1440
Quote:
Originally Posted by HtownLove View Post
They may have been true, but that did not stop them from voting 65 and 75% democrat in most states



Bush was fairly a fairly popular governor, and he actively wooed the latinos with all sorts of promises. They did not vote for bush because they were stalwart conservatives,,, they voted for him because

1 They knew him (or at least they thought they did)

2. He was their governor (hometown advantage)

3. He promised them the world (but did not pay up)
Latinos are conservative, everybody know that.But Republicans have been stupid and sounded racists, it's pretty normal for them to vote Democrat !
Republicans must attract them if they want a political future...Some good steps have been realised in November :
-2 hispanic republicans elected in heavily hispanic districts in South Texas (pretty incredible,I didn't think they could..)
-The first hispanic governor in Nevada (Brian Sandoval) is a republican, not a democrat, certainly a good thing for the GOP brand
-The first latina governor in the USA in New Mexico (Susana Martinez)
-Marco Rubio, republican from Florida, obtained 55% of the hispanic vote in a three-way race, and he could become the first latino president of the USA, many bet on him.
Reply With Quote Quick reply to this message
 
Old 12-27-2010, 09:58 AM
 
Location: northern Vermont - previously NM, WA, & MA
9,453 posts, read 18,381,877 times
Reputation: 11928
Quote:
Originally Posted by GoneNative View Post
Nevertheless, it is true that young people are more liberal at this point in their lives than previous generations. If that holds true for the next generation, then you're right: social conservatism is dead as a political platform and our politics will probably continue to look more and more like Europe's.
Indeed the social conservative platform that seemed to get so much limelight in the 2004 election will be all but dead within a generation. Adolescents growing up now in many diverse communities all over the USA will highly unlikely be concerned about gay marriage in their 30's in the 2020's. By then the US will be a much more diverse ethnic melting pot as it already is compared to 20 years ago. Don't Ask Don't Tell was recently repealed and John McCain lost again, he'll be on the wrong side of history looking back. If the GOP would evolve past these antiquated hurdles I would be onboard with much of their fiscal philosophies. Time will tell.
Reply With Quote Quick reply to this message
 
Old 12-27-2010, 10:00 AM
 
Location: Northridge, Los Angeles, CA
2,685 posts, read 6,368,805 times
Reputation: 2356
Quote:
Originally Posted by RenaudFR View Post
Latinos are conservative, everybody know that.But Republicans have been stupid and sounded racists, it's pretty normal for them to vote Democrat !
And as long as that keeps on going, Latinos are going to keep voting for the Democrats. There are some Latino groups who can see past that and vote for the Republicans (most notably, Cubans) but for the most part, the vast majority of Latino people I know, despite their pretty conservative stances (especially on gay marriage, abortion, etc.), are becoming more and more staunch Democrats.
Adjoin that with the fact that the bulk majority of Latinos in the United States ARE in the millennial generation, then you have a huge nightmare for many Republican planners.

If you keep up with American media nowadays, it would seem that many Republicans think that almost every single problem we have in the United States stems from illegal immigration. Most critics of illegal immigration know the difference between a legal and illegal and make that known, but those that don't resonate to the Latino community.

However, I will say that there is a generation gap between those who were born to immigrant parents/those who are immigrants to those who's family has been here for a few generation. Those that have been here longer don't have the same fears as the 1st/2nd generation. That goes for every single ethnic group as well.
Reply With Quote Quick reply to this message
 
Old 12-27-2010, 10:14 AM
 
Location: Tower of Heaven
4,023 posts, read 6,444,575 times
Reputation: 1440
Quote:
Originally Posted by Lifeshadower View Post
And as long as that keeps on going, Latinos are going to keep voting for the Democrats. There are some Latino groups who can see past that and vote for the Republicans (most notably, Cubans) but for the most part, the vast majority of Latino people I know, despite their pretty conservative stances (especially on gay marriage, abortion, etc.), are becoming more and more staunch Democrats.
Adjoin that with the fact that the bulk majority of Latinos in the United States ARE in the millennial generation, then you have a huge nightmare for many Republican planners.

If you keep up with American media nowadays, it would seem that many Republicans think that almost every single problem we have in the United States stems from illegal immigration. Most critics of illegal immigration know the difference between a legal and illegal and make that known, but those that don't resonate to the Latino community.

However, I will say that there is a generation gap between those who were born to immigrant parents/those who are immigrants to those who's family has been here for a few generation. Those that have been here longer don't have the same fears as the 1st/2nd generation. That goes for every single ethnic group as well.
Proposals to support the legal immigration (increase the legal immigration, to fast the family reunification because some people must wait several years compared to illegals) would be a good step for Republicans I think. "We support the legal immigrants, look at what we did about it"
But I said it before, they're better now about latinos (hispanic governors, senators and representants), but they won't progress all of a sudden, several years will be necessary.
Reply With Quote Quick reply to this message
 
Old 12-27-2010, 10:37 AM
 
Location: Northridge, Los Angeles, CA
2,685 posts, read 6,368,805 times
Reputation: 2356
Quote:
Originally Posted by RenaudFR View Post
Proposals to support the legal immigration (increase the legal immigration, to fast the family reunification because some people must wait several years compared to illegals) would be a good step for Republicans I think. "We support the legal immigrants, look at what we did about it"
But I said it before, they're better now about latinos (hispanic governors, senators and representants), but they won't progress all of a sudden, several years will be necessary.
But then the Republicans are going to be losing their base: Working class White Americans. As California's gubernatorial election has shown, you can't, on one hand, be "Hispandering" for voters without having some blow back effect on the traditional base of the party. Who will represent their interests, at that point, many White Americans will believe.

There has been so much animosity toward illegal immigration and Latinos from Republican politicians for the past 20 years (pretty much the generation I grew up in) that it seems the battle lines are set in the Western states. Unlike the Blacks in the South where they were growing at roughly the same rates (or in some cases, just a bit higher) as Whites, its going to be a disaster in the West.

However, I think the article missed an important point: both Democrats and Republicans have to start treating Latinos (and at some point, Asians too we become a voter bloc that matters) like fellow Americans instead of either unwanted guests or babies that need guidance. As the generation that grew up here become repeat voters, both sides have to start being in-tune with that fact.
Reply With Quote Quick reply to this message
 
Old 12-27-2010, 10:45 AM
 
Location: Up on the moon laughing down on you
18,509 posts, read 28,210,269 times
Reputation: 7599
Quote:
Originally Posted by RenaudFR View Post
Proposals to support the legal immigration (increase the legal immigration, to fast the family reunification because some people must wait several years compared to illegals) would be a good step for Republicans I think. "We support the legal immigrants, look at what we did about it"
But I said it before, they're better now about latinos (hispanic governors, senators and representants), but they won't progress all of a sudden, several years will be necessary.
that would kill the republicans...
very few support increasing the legal immigration..

do a little research to see how many of the green cards go to mexicans.

Mexicans account for more than 30% of all green cards issued (three times more than all the rest of latin america combined.

altogether latin americans get more than 40% of all green cards.

so it is not like they are not getting as much as everyone else,, they are getting more.
Reply With Quote Quick reply to this message
 
Old 12-27-2010, 10:50 AM
 
Location: Tower of Heaven
4,023 posts, read 6,444,575 times
Reputation: 1440
Quote:
Originally Posted by Lifeshadower View Post
But then the Republicans are going to be losing their base: Working class White Americans. As California's gubernatorial election has shown, you can't, on one hand, be "Hispandering" for voters without having some blow back effect on the traditional base of the party. Who will represent their interests, at that point, many White Americans will believe.

There has been so much animosity toward illegal immigration and Latinos from Republican politicians for the past 20 years (pretty much the generation I grew up in) that it seems the battle lines are set in the Western states. Unlike the Blacks in the South where they were growing at roughly the same rates (or in some cases, just a bit higher) as Whites, its going to be a disaster in the West.

However, I think the article missed an important point: both Democrats and Republicans have to start treating Latinos (and at some point, Asians too we become a voter bloc that matters) like fellow Americans instead of either unwanted guests or babies that need guidance. As the generation that grew up here become repeat voters, both sides have to start being in-tune with that fact.
You're right, it's not an easy equation...Illegal immigration is a poison for republicans, they can't support it, too dangerous.But I know 3rd generation latinos aren't so pro-illegals, more like whites in fact.
Maybe republicans should target Asians first ? They're easier to attract because family-centric and pro-business, and Asians growth is very strong in some places like Nevada,Texas,Washington, Virginia, North Carolina, they can be an asset.
Maybe they should target black immigrants too ? They're not like African Americans, so maybe they can be more politically open ?

Democrats can be optimistic I think, the trends are good for them.The weak point : the economy.Democrats should be more pro-business (remember the Clinton years), and Obama understood apparently (trade deal with South Korea, he invited CEOs, his fiscal commission say the corporate tax should be lower because 35% is too much, 23% is advised).

The future will be very interesting in the US politically ! In European countries or Japan it's not hard to predict : a much older population, advantage to the right wing politicians, and shrinking youth (in Germany young voters are ignored, but retired are massively targeted )
Reply With Quote Quick reply to this message
Please register to post and access all features of our very popular forum. It is free and quick. Over $68,000 in prizes has already been given out to active posters on our forum. Additional giveaways are planned.

Detailed information about all U.S. cities, counties, and zip codes on our site: City-data.com.


Reply
Please update this thread with any new information or opinions. This open thread is still read by thousands of people, so we encourage all additional points of view.

Quick Reply
Message:

Over $104,000 in prizes was already given out to active posters on our forum and additional giveaways are planned!

Go Back   City-Data Forum > U.S. Forums > General U.S.
Similar Threads
Follow City-Data.com founder on our Forum or

All times are GMT -6.

© 2005-2019, Advameg, Inc. · Please obey Forum Rules · Terms of Use and Privacy Policy · Bug Bounty

City-Data.com - Archive 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12, 13, 14, 15, 16, 17, 18, 19, 20, 21, 22, 23, 24, 25, 26, 27, 28, 29, 30, 31, 32, 33, 34, 35 - Top