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While I do understand your point, the cities in the South do have diverse economies. They learned from some of the mistakes that Detroit, Cleveland, and Pittsburgh made.
Spade, that is exactly what I am trying to tell him. The newer cities of the south have learned how to diversify their economies and not make those same mistakes of the older northern cities. That is one very big reason that I think Houston will continue grow at a smooth and steady pace and keep moving up in the rankings of the populous cities. It will not be in 40 or 50 years, but more like 75 to 100 years.
Spade, that is exactly what I am trying to tell him. The newer cities of the south have learned how to diversify their economies and not make those same mistakes of the older northern cities. That is one very big reason that I think Houston will continue grow at a smooth and steady pace and keep moving up in the rankings of the populous cities. It will not be in 40 or 50 years, but more like 75 to 100 years.
Houston won't continue to grow in the way it is now for the next 40 to 50 years, let alone 75 to 100. If Houston doesn't develop a dense core (more than just the inner loop) with reliable forms of mass transit, the city will be left behind when gas reach unfathomable prices. People don't move to Houston because they find it super desirable, it's just cheap...for now.
I'm sure once the recession is over, Houston will probably start seeing its first slow domestically, but I'm sure it will still be a leader amongst international migrants.
Houston won't continue to grow in the way it is now for the next 40 to 50 years, let alone 75 to 100. If Houston doesn't develop a dense core (more than just the inner loop) with reliable forms of mass transit, the city will be left behind when gas reach unfathomable prices. People don't move to Houston because they find it super desirable, it's just cheap...for now.
I'm sure once the recession is over, Houston will probably start seeing its first slow domestically, but I'm sure it will still be a leader amongst international migrants.
Houston has gained the same number it did this decade in 5 of the last 6 decades.
Houston has gained the same number it did this decade in 5 of the last 6 decades.
That means if history holds true, which it noramally does, Houston could gain another 4 million to 6 million people in 75 years. That would bring the city of Houston to around 7 million to 8 million population. The metro would easily be around 12 million or so, or a little more. That is a very attainable number for Houston reach. I also believe that I am being really conservative with my numbers. I actually think Houston will be there around 2050-2060.
That means if history holds true, which it noramally does, Houston could gain another 4 million to 6 million people in 75 years. That would bring the city of Houston to around 7 million to 8 million population. The metro would easily be around 12 million or so, or a little more. That is a very attainable number for Houston reach. I also believe that I am being really conservative with my numbers. I actually think Houston will be there around 2050-2060.
well actually if you look at the growth of large cities, history would suggest it will NOT continue to grow for another 40 to 50 years, especially at the current rate
If History played out that way Chicago, Philadelphia, Boston, Baltimore, Buffalo, Cleveland etc etc etc would be many millions larger today, now through history there have been some outliers, but not really. History would suggest not growing at that rate based on it's large population and number of decades of very high growth rates. But then again if you choose to only look at the recent trend...
And an honest Question, do you believe the 550 sq miles would achieve a density of the current Chicago or Philadelphia, because thats what it would be at the 7-8 million number, Just for perspective the inner loop is ~ half that density today
well actually if you look at the growth of large cities, history would suggest it will NOT continue to grow for another 40 to 50 years, especially at the current rate
he is going based on the last 60 years.
Quote:
Originally Posted by kidphilly
If History played out that way Chicago, Philadelphia, Boston, Baltimore, Buffalo, Cleveland etc etc etc would be many millions larger today, now through history there have been some outliers, but not really.
those are all frost belt cities, sunbelt cities follow a different pattern. The better comparison would have been LA.
Quote:
Originally Posted by kidphilly
History would suggest not growing at that rate based on it's large population and number of decades of very high growth rates. But then again if you choose to only look at the recent trend...
he is not going by population rate. he is going by raw numbers over the last 60 years. it has been the same for 5 out of the last 6 decades.
Quote:
Originally Posted by kidphilly
And an honest Question, do you believe the 550 sq miles would achieve a density of the current Chicago or Philadelphia, because thats what it would be at the 7-8 million number, Just for perspective the inner loop is ~ half that density today
Oh most definitely. You are looking at the inner loop on a whole loop basis. it is mainly the west side of the loop that is nicely developed. the eastern half is rather sparse.
it is the same thing when you look at the city. most of the people live in one quadrant, the SW side. There are 1M people living in that area and density in that area spikes to 20,000ppsm. about a quarter of the SW side has densities from 10,000k to 20,000k. When the 3 other quadrants catch up and the sw continues to densify Houston can easily accommodate 7-8M people.
Houston won't continue to grow in the way it is now for the next 40 to 50 years, let alone 75 to 100. If Houston doesn't develop a dense core (more than just the inner loop) with reliable forms of mass transit, the city will be left behind when gas reach unfathomable prices. People don't move to Houston because they find it super desirable, it's just cheap...for now.
I'm sure once the recession is over, Houston will probably start seeing its first slow domestically, but I'm sure it will still be a leader amongst international migrants.
Well the good news is that Houston is actually developing a dense core inside beltway 8 and they are expanding their rail service. The city is indeed getting more denser. Over 300,000 people have moved to Houston this past decade without any type of annexation. Also, I think I read this in the chronicle, but the inner loop of Houston is now approaching 600,000 which means the density is over 6000 ppsm. Pretty good for a sunbelt city. I do believe Houston will slow down eventually. But I think it will keep a steady healthy growth because of it's growing and diverse economy and relatively cheap housing. Houston is cheap, but it's still pricey in many areas.
those are all frost belt cities, sunbelt cities follow a different pattern. The better comparison would have been LA.
he is not going by population rate. he is going by raw numbers over the last 60 years. it has been the same for 5 out of the last 6 decades.
Oh most definitely. You are looking at the inner loop on a whole loop basis. it is mainly the west side of the loop that is nicely developed. the eastern half is rather sparse.
it is the same thing when you look at the city. most of the people live in one quadrant, the SW side. There are 1M people living in that area and density in that area spikes to 20,000ppsm. about a quarter of the SW side has densities from 10,000k to 20,000k. When the 3 other quadrants catch up and the sw continues to densify Houston can easily accommodate 7-8M people.
obviously that many people can fit in the space, but currently there are what like maybe 5 census tracts that even hit that number today, even the newer urbanist development is typically closer to 7-8K which wont even get it there, so you are saying the Houston will become a dense urban city and attract people looking for cheaper housing and space, somehow these arguments dont match up
also the last 60 years, well look at the 80 years leading to 1950, whatever on this. I also believe LA has slowed as it's density increased.
but on the 12K density in Houston proper, so you are saying the whole city will reinvent itself and will become densly developed and continue to attract people looking for cheap housing and space... good luck with those roads with that density, also where are you gonna park all those cars and you basically have to triple or quadrouple th density of everything already built. I agree Houston will continue to grow but these numbers for the city are not even realistic.
Honestly HTOWN how many census tracts today are at 12K, the whole 550 sq miles will need to be to hit that number, that number doesnt pass the sniff test, sorry
Well the good news is that Houston is actually developing a dense core inside beltway 8 and they are expanding their rail service. The city is indeed getting more denser. Over 300,000 people have moved to Houston this past decade without any type of annexation. Also, I think I read this in the chronicle, but the inner loop of Houston is now approaching 600,000 which means the density is over 6000 ppsm. Pretty good for a sunbelt city.
yeah, projections also show a ton of new jobs expected for the metro with over 70% of that within beltway 8
it is the same thing when you look at the city. most of the people live in one quadrant, the SW side. There are 1M people living in that area and density in that area spikes to 20,000ppsm. about a quarter of the SW side has densities from 10,000k to 20,000k. When the 3 other quadrants catch up and the sw continues to densify Houston can easily accommodate 7-8M people.
20K ppsm, in Houston, a million folks living that way??????????????
HTOWN, sharpen that pencil, you are talking Brooklyn like at that level, more dense than SF and Boston with a higher population, again, this does not pass the sniff test, or all my time in Houston they have been hiding where these one million folks live
seriously, so you are talking one million folks in Houston living in greater density than this neighborhood?
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