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Old 02-07-2011, 10:15 AM
 
Location: Minneapolis
2,331 posts, read 3,058,698 times
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It is no coincidence that the rise of the sunbelt happened at the same time as the deindustrialization of the rust belt. To some degree people moved for the weather but they also followed jobs. Northern cities with healthy economies had decent population growth over the last 30 years; some examples of this would be Columbus, Indianapolis, Madison, Minneapolis-St Paul, Des Moines, and Omaha. The ones that did poorly also had weak economies

Big recessions tend to be economic paradigm changing events. The last one in '81-'82 gave birth to the rust belt. My guess is that this one will mark the end of the hollowing out of the rust belt and also the end of sky high growth in parts of the sunbelt. I think places like Arizona, Nevada, Florida, and Georgia will still grow but not as fast. Look at the unemployment rates, that will tell the story. People eventually stop moving to places with high unemployment.
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Old 02-07-2011, 10:21 AM
 
Location: The City
22,341 posts, read 32,192,195 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Drewcifer View Post
It is no coincidence that the rise of the sunbelt happened at the same time as the deindustrialization of the rust belt. To some degree people moved for the weather but they also followed jobs. Northern cities with healthy economies had decent population growth over the last 30 years; some examples of this would be Columbus, Indianapolis, Madison, Minneapolis-St Paul, Des Moines, and Omaha. The ones that did poorly also had weak economies

Big recessions tend to be economic paradigm changing events. The last one in '81-'82 gave birth to the rust belt. My guess is that this one will mark the end of the hollowing out of the rust belt and also the end of sky high growth in parts of the sunbelt. I think places like Arizona, Nevada, Florida, and Georgia will still grow but not as fast. Look at the unemployment rates, that will tell the story. People eventually stop moving to places with high unemployment.

I mostly agree, one thing that history tells us is that things will change, what event triggers may be different but one truth is that things wont always stay the same. That being said I do think there is growth in the mid sized Sunbelt metros, maybe the mid sized rust belt metros too

Maybe Detroit will be the place that goes nuts in the 2020's, who knows but I did think the superbowl spot for Detroit (Think Chrysler actually) was great last night
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Old 02-07-2011, 10:25 AM
 
9,948 posts, read 6,894,117 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by kidphilly View Post
I mostly agree, one thing that history tells us is that things will change, what event triggers may be different but one truth is that things wont always stay the same. That being said I do think there is growth in the mid sized Sunbelt metros, maybe the mid sized rust belt metros too

Maybe Detroit will be the place that goes nuts in the 2020's, who knows but I did think the superbowl spot for Detroit (Think Chrysler actually) was great last night


http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JavOp...layer_embedded

Detroit will Roar again. I teared up when I saw that AD. The Big Three was slow in recognizing that the image of "the city" impacts their image as well. If Detroit is seen as a come back city....that will transfer to the Big three in terms of sales. If Detroit is seen as a dying city, the Big 3 will continue to be seen as dying as well. Thus, this AD was really a no brainer. It was selling "Detroit" even more than it was selling Chrysler. Detroit is still a great city. To its credit, GM has did a lot of investing on the riverfront related to its move to its new digs. All three really need to start investing more in the city....and they will benefit in turn.

That said, someone mentioned that rail and planes are the "modern" means of trade. I disagree. In regards to intenational trade its still shipping, meaning water. Tonage enters ports and then are loaded onto trucks and some go by rail. Air transportation is for business and vacation travel, as well as small cargo FED EX type of stuff.

Last edited by Indentured Servant; 02-07-2011 at 10:43 AM..
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Old 02-07-2011, 10:47 AM
 
Location: The City
22,341 posts, read 32,192,195 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Indentured Servant View Post

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JavOp...layer_embedded

Detroit will Roar again. I teared up when I saw that AD. The Big Three was slow in recognizing that the image of "the city" impacts their image as well. If Detroit is seen as a come back city....that will transfer to the Big three in terms of sales. If Detroit is seen as a dying city, the Big 3 will continue to be seen as dying as well. Thus, this AD was really a no brainer. It was selling "Detroit" even more than it was selling Chrysler. Detroit is still a great city. To its credit, GM has did a lot of investing on the riverfront related to its move to its new digs. All three really need to start investing more in the city....and they will benefit in turn.

That said, someone mentioned that rail and planes are the "modern" means of trade. I disagree. In regards to intenational trade its still shipping, meaning water. Tonage enters ports and then are loaded onto trucks and some go by rail. Air transportation is for business and vacation travel, as well as small cargo FED EX type of stuff.
Great post, It got me excited for Detroit and in many ways proud to be an American and immeadiately drawn as an advocate for Detoit - also it had truly great images of Detroit - thanks for posting the link!
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Old 02-07-2011, 02:33 PM
 
Location: Atlanta ,GA
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Originally Posted by HtownLove View Post
fixed it for you
LOL..Another day for that,another day...
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Old 02-07-2011, 04:38 PM
 
Location: Mexico City, formerly Columbus, Ohio
13,106 posts, read 13,504,828 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by cwkimbro View Post
Umm...

ok lots of things to consider here.

The gateway for immigrants was in NYC making that ground zero.

However, you have to realize the social views back then. It wasn't ... oh we don't have A/C or simply we think it is hot. There were alot of health issues and scares about life further south. There were many more mosquitoes that lived in the heat and humidity. There was a higher chance disease could spread fast in dense populations.
The technology of that era made it easy to heat a place, but hard to cool.

Weather seems to have played a big roll. A/C definitely helped, but it isn't the only technological innovations that made the south more habitable for larger populations. Better health centers, disease control, and pesticides all played a big part as well.

If you go far back enough in history there was a time where many people were concerned that building the capital in DC was a bad idea. It was building it in a hot swamp and there was bound to be lots of mosquitoes. While DC is definitely in the south, it is at the northern extent.

Yes there was a point in time where industrial production was outsourced to other areas (midwest) as the area grew, but you have to remember why the north grew first and what conditions that had to be overcome to grow in other areas.
So why does it matter where immigrants came to port? You're telling me they travelled thousands of miles from home across oceans, but couldn't find a way to Georgia? It's always been about the economy. For 200 years, the North was the economic powerhouse. The South had slaves and cotton. It is a very good reason why the North won the Civil War, even though most in the North couldn't have cared less about the slavery issue. They just had more money, more business, more infrastructure, and more people. The tide did not turn until steel and many other manufacturing mainstays began to fall apart, and previously booming Northern cities were left scratching their collective heads because they didn't have any other businesses to fall back on. This is not something that happened 100 years ago, this has been in the past 30-35 years. Only in the past 10 years or so have Northern cities been able to diversify enough to really become competitive again, and we're starting to see that in some of the population reversals and the fast growth of many mid-size Northern cities.

And again, with the weather factor and A/C... it's interesting to hear people say the South has gained a lot of people because of the warmth, yet they clearly spend most of their time indoors to stay cool. No one really enjoys a Southern summer. They tolerate it, the same that people in the North tolerate winter. Neither is attractive enough to make massive amounts of people migrate.
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Old 02-07-2011, 04:51 PM
 
Location: Austin, TX/Chicago, IL/Houston, TX/Washington, DC
10,171 posts, read 12,814,445 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by kidphilly View Post
Maybe Detroit will be the place that goes nuts in the 2020's, who knows but I did think the superbowl spot for Detroit (Think Chrysler actually) was great last night
Yeah it was Chrysler, it was a good commercial, and it seems like Detroit is really making strives (more so than any other city in its region) to market itself. If it ends up being the boomtown of the 2020's, I wouldn't mind, the city's working hard to get itself back to where it left off.


http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cbH1H...eature=related

As for the conversation about the hard hit areas in the Sunbelt, a lot of analysts have thrown a quite peculiar word around to describe it, called "Dustbelt", meaning the Sunbelt cities that lost their drive due to the recession. For this thread, yes, the Sunbelt boom will never end, the Sunbelt compromises half of the country's land area, but the Sunbelt boom can quite frankly slow itself down by a lot.
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Old 02-07-2011, 04:56 PM
 
Location: Minneapolis
2,331 posts, read 3,058,698 times
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Downtown Detroit has such great urban bones that it ought to be a national treasure. It's collection of pre WWII skyscrapers is probably only surpassed by NYC and Chicago. It's renaissance is something we should all hope for.
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Old 02-07-2011, 05:57 PM
 
4,677 posts, read 8,055,712 times
Reputation: 1236
Quote:
Originally Posted by Indentured Servant View Post

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JavOp...layer_embedded

Detroit will Roar again. I teared up when I saw that AD. The Big Three was slow in recognizing that the image of "the city" impacts their image as well. If Detroit is seen as a come back city....that will transfer to the Big three in terms of sales. If Detroit is seen as a dying city, the Big 3 will continue to be seen as dying as well. Thus, this AD was really a no brainer. It was selling "Detroit" even more than it was selling Chrysler. Detroit is still a great city. To its credit, GM has did a lot of investing on the riverfront related to its move to its new digs. All three really need to start investing more in the city....and they will benefit in turn.

That said, someone mentioned that rail and planes are the "modern" means of trade. I disagree. In regards to intenational trade its still shipping, meaning water. Tonage enters ports and then are loaded onto trucks and some go by rail. Air transportation is for business and vacation travel, as well as small cargo FED EX type of stuff.
That was me that mentioned planes and rail as modern day modes of transportation. You are absolutely right in what you say about ships and ports. These are definitely important. However, if you're transporting people, which option do you think is more viable? I would assume airport. Airport as a mode of business travel is huge and places with significant airports are starting to fare well. Trains and ships have a symbiotic relationship. The ships bring them in, the trains carry them out.

You and I both share the hope for a Detroit revival.
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Old 04-23-2012, 07:19 PM
 
Location: Austin, TX
10,827 posts, read 9,447,536 times
Reputation: 6182
Quote:
Originally Posted by jbcmh81 View Post
While it may not end in the immediate future, it will have an end and will stabilize. There are two main reasons why people are moving south right now. First, there is a large population of Baby Boomers that are beginning to retire to previous vacation places. Second, and more important, is that a lot of the northern cities were hit hard during the last few decades by a large decline in blue-collar jobs such as manufacturing. Even the largest cities, like NYC, Boston, Chicago, etc had growth that was slow or even declining at times not so long ago, but a lot of that decline has been reversing. Northern cities are reinventing themselves with more diversified economies. People ultimately go where the jobs are. Things like the weather play little in that factor. After all, those claiming people leave the North because of long winters ignore the fact that that area had the largest population centers and biggest economic impact for 200 years of our nation's history, at a time when winters were even worse. Winter did not suddenly become an issue. And sorry South, your weather sucks just as bad during your long, miserably hot summer. Throw in the bugs, severe wx, tornadoes, and occasional hurricane, and they're about even. It's about jobs more than anything else.
There was a difference in the early history of our country. There was always heat but not A/C. A/C normalized the south against the north, the indoor climate could now be the same in both areas so then it's a choice between being warm to hot most of the year or being cold to cool most of the year. People voted with their feet to move south.
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