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Old 05-26-2012, 04:50 PM
 
1,248 posts, read 2,991,204 times
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The Sun Belt boom will end when the water runs out. Don't kid yourself.

There is a reason why Native Americans lived all over the continent, including in the Northeast. Water is a necessity for life, and for agriculture. The Sun Belt is living on borrowed time.
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Old 05-27-2012, 09:56 AM
 
Location: Mexico City, formerly Columbus, Ohio
13,106 posts, read 13,507,872 times
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Originally Posted by JohninAustin View Post
The desert region of the sunbelt extends from west Texas to south east California. While this includes Phoenix and Las Vegas.... most of the growth in the sunbelt is in areas with lots of lakes, rivers, aquifers, and rainfall. Not to mention the entire Gulf Coast.
I tend to think the Southeast will do the best in this regard, but if there are any long-term droughts, desalinization from the Gulf/Atlantic is still more expensive than tapping fresh water sources.
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Old 05-27-2012, 10:34 AM
 
Location: plano
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Originally Posted by knowledgeiskey View Post
What jobs?

The Sunbelt's job market sucks.
Wake up Tx has jobs, Houston has added jobs since 2007 year end, which no other city can claim
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Old 05-27-2012, 10:36 AM
 
Location: plano
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Originally Posted by cBach View Post
Umm, some of the first civilizations known to man thrived in desert environments (ancient Egypt) while the frozen north was still primitive hunters and herdsmen.
Was it a desert then or did climate change occur back then before fossil fuel
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Old 05-27-2012, 10:56 AM
 
Location: The City
22,341 posts, read 32,197,706 times
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Originally Posted by Johnhw2 View Post
Wake up Tx has jobs, Houston has added jobs since 2007 year end, which no other city can claim
Houston and DFW have had amazing job adds, will that continue forever, probably not (why are these differeent from basically all other cities that experienced such growth) but other places may take their place just as Houston and DFW have become the big gainers.

Remember Detroit probably added more jobs than any place between 1930 and 1940, trends change that is the constant not growth of individual places

As places get bigger (also more mature) costs increase making business and housing less advantageous. This is cyclical. Will the future growers be in the sunblet, maybe or maybe not. Time will tell

But do agree that like all growers it is the jobs that dictate the ones that grow at the time
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Old 05-27-2012, 11:19 AM
 
Location: plano
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Originally Posted by kidphilly View Post
Houston and DFW have had amazing job adds, will that continue forever, probably not (why are these differeent from basically all other cities that experienced such growth) but other places may take their place just as Houston and DFW have become the big gainers.

Remember Detroit probably added more jobs than any place between 1930 and 1940, trends change that is the constant not growth of individual places

As places get bigger (also more mature) costs increase making business and housing less advantageous. This is cyclical. Will the future growers be in the sunblet, maybe or maybe not. Time will tell

But do agree that like all growers it is the jobs that dictate the ones that grow at the time
I agree sustaining job growth is a major challenge. A city and its state must be relentless on keeping cost of doing business reasonable, reg appropriately but not overly, provide a good place for workers to live as well. I believe low zoning will help keep costs down in both cities. But as we saw if energy hickups like it did in the 80s job growth can turn to job declines. Houston has diversified to more than energy now vs before but energy still stirs the drink. Dallas is more diverse jobs wise.
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Old 05-27-2012, 11:24 AM
 
Location: plano
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Originally Posted by Jeromeville View Post
The Sun Belt boom will end when the water runs out. Don't kid yourself.

There is a reason why Native Americans lived all over the continent, including in the Northeast. Water is a necessity for life, and for agriculture. The Sun Belt is living on borrowed time.
A lot of the sunbelt has plenty of water, dont confuse CA/AZ with sunbelt. Water is an issue but less so than in these two states
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Old 05-27-2012, 11:31 AM
 
Location: The City
22,341 posts, read 32,197,706 times
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Originally Posted by Johnhw2 View Post
I agree sustaining job growth is a major challenge. A city and its state must be relentless on keeping cost of doing business reasonable, reg appropriately but not overly, provide a good place for workers to live as well. I believe low zoning will help keep costs down in both cities. But as we saw if energy hickups like it did in the 80s job growth can turn to job declines. Houston has diversified to more than energy now vs before but energy still stirs the drink. Dallas is more diverse jobs wise.
mostly agree but other costs rise with age and maturity, aging infrastructure, schools, real estate as it densifies etc, expansion to maintian low real estate costs only seems to go so far. TX has been tremendous in attracting jobs, some at the behest of future costs though


It wont change ovenight but demographics and infrastructure etc change

Houston and Dallas have invested massively in highway infrastructure, these same roads will need to be amintianed. Also the newness is part of the equation too, new isnt new forever. Though I dont see either of these two slowing in the near future, projecting past say 20 years is difficult, I would wager the current growth rates and attraction of business will not be maintained for more than another decade or two then will slow to a more normal growth rate. This is not necessarialy a bad thing, honestly the thought of Houston or DFW with the twice population is either very crowded or even massively more spread than they are today, to me neither a good thing for their contructs, but some others may differ in that opinion.

I am personally curious where the next "boom" locale will be honestly
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Old 05-27-2012, 01:47 PM
 
Location: plano
6,586 posts, read 8,118,827 times
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Houston boomed from mid last century until 1983 when oil bust happened. It was a true depression, in that Houston lost over 250k jobs on a base of under 2m jobs then. It didnt turn around until the mid 90's and has returned to boom again. It has maintained the same characteristics as the last boom and has managed aging infrastructure costs well imho. So dont count it out for the next 50 years with another hickup or two perhaps. No zoning has a huge advantage in that close in locations can change from old housing or retail stock to new more density uses without zoning there to slow things down and increase the cost and risk of making this change. It has happened at a few locations during my 50 years of living in and out of Houston.
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Old 05-27-2012, 02:18 PM
 
Location: New Albany, Indiana (Greater Louisville)
9,869 posts, read 21,161,251 times
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Water situation... you have to separate the Desert SW from the South East AND divide the South East up into Coastal Plain and Mid South Uplands.

The issue with the Deep South (aka Coastal Plains) is not lack of rain but the flatness of the land which limits how deep lakes are. Example: Lake Cumberland in Southern Kentucky has a surface area of just 65,000 acres but has 6 million cubic acres of water. By contrast Lake Moultrie in South Carolina has just 1 million cubic acres of water beneath its 60,000 surface acres. Herrington Lake in Kentucky contains 500,000 cubic acres of water in just a 2,500 surface acre area!! That's half of what Florida's Lake Okeechobee contains
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