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They don't go where they can get paid if there are jobs that can't be filled like in Omaha, Nebraska or Sioux Falls, South Dakota and if they move without a job to a place they either know has a difficult job market or that they are willfully ignorant of but happens to have nice weather, beach, and/or mountains, and is seen by society as "desirable". North Dakota is getting the spotlight because it has the 6 figure oil jobs and is the state with THE lowest unemployment in the nation (which counts for a lot more than the state with the second or third lowest unemployment) but if it didn't have either it is doubtful people would move there because it is too cold for many people, it is geographically isolated, is seen as very undesirable by society, lacks beaches and mountains, and doesn't have the amenities that people are looking for.
Yep, that's the point I was making earlier. A lot of people who find densely populated urban areas "cool", think the only reason someone would move to a sprawling sunbelt metro must be for a job. As I said before, if jobs were all that mattered, a city like Pittsburgh, PA with its low unemployment and realitive affordabilty would be one of the fastest growing metros in the country. Instead it's losing population. It's obviously more than just jobs and cheap housing that is attracting people to the sunbelt.
low unemployment is not all encompassing, for the growth the attraction and growth of payrolls is the larger issue and the MOST significant, by a landslide
PA is an awful state for attracting businesses to relocate, Pittsburgh is dong very well with a changing demographic, what it is not doing is adding companies and jobs from relos (at any significant clip).
there are multiple factors, weather, COL, etc.
but ability to attract jobs is NUMERO UNO and by a HUGE margin. no jobs no relos (well over simplified but basically true)
Also in general people with good jobs and upwardly mobil move because of opportunity, not to a place, and alsobased on the industry. People move to the fast growers because jobs are plentiful, they are not flocking there just to flock there (that is LA and NYC honestly), basically all others are job driven
If Houston could not add another 100K jobs next and and additional 150K migrated, just watch what happens the following year, this is simple why is everyone trying to make this complex. Job adders attract, plain and simple
Anyone with basic reading comprehension skills could have seen that I was referring to the time period before the recession since I used past tense verbs. Guess you have to spell every little thing out around here...
You stated that they were still job centers, not only in the past.
You stated that they were still job centers, not only in the past.
And I stated that they are to a lesser extent and I said that to differentiate between them and the high-growth Sunbelt cities that mainly attract retirees.
low unemployment is not all encompassing, for the growth the attraction and growth of payrolls is the larger issue and the MOST significant, by a landslide
PA is an awful state for attracting businesses to relocate, Pittsburgh is dong very well with a changing demographic, what it is not doing is adding companies and jobs from relos (at any significant clip).
there are multiple factors, weather, COL, etc.
but ability to attract jobs is NUMERO UNO and by a HUGE margin. no jobs no relos (well over simplified but basically true)
Also in general people with good jobs and upwardly mobil move because of opportunity, not to a place, and alsobased on the industry. People move to the fast growers because jobs are plentiful, they are not flocking there just to flock there (that is LA and NYC honestly), basically all others are job driven
If Houston could not add another 100K jobs next and and additional 150K migrated, just watch what happens the following year, this is simple why is everyone trying to make this complex. Job adders attract, plain and simple
Why did Detroit grow, Chicago, etc etc etc
That's why I don't get how the Northeastern cities that are not growing are so expensive cost of living wise - vastly more so than in the Sunbelt or the Midwest. There's got to be people making bank in the Northeast corridor but when the cost of living/number of job opportunities are way better elsewhere for the vast majority it makes me wonder (a) how Northeastern cities will continue to stay so expensive and (b) why on Earth someone would want to stay in the Northeast if they were not making bank.
That's why I don't get how the Northeastern cities that are not growing are so expensive cost of living wise - vastly more so than in the Sunbelt or the Midwest. There's got to be people making bank in the Northeast corridor but when the cost of living/number of job opportunities are way better elsewhere for the vast majority it makes me wonder (a) how Northeastern cities will continue to stay so expensive and (b) why on Earth someone would want to stay in the Northeast if they were not making bank.
well sort of a tale of two demographics, those doing well (making bank as you call it, but to me bank is a lot, so I would say a good 6 figure and up salary, bank to me is probably into the 7 figures) may likely stay
There are also many on the other end without the means or skills/education to port to another location.
On cost it is supply and demand. It isnt as if the very desirable areas are not nor will remain in high demand. the NE and west coast have many places that offer tremendous living. Be that educational systems (genrally the best in the country among the desirable or even middle class areas, great benefit for families with children), cultural amentities, access to nature and museums and restaurants etc. (and to me beaches too, huge to me personally, though some do but DFW and Atlanta are WAY to far and even Houston is further from the type I personally like from my experience)
These places dont stay desirable because they offer less, they stay desirable because they offer a ton.
Also it is a misnomer to think people are just flocking from these places. maybe like 1-2% of the populace a year and generally those that may have under performed in the market or sought job opportunities not available where they came from. Still some may desire a different weather, more modern place and the places with job growth may offer this migration.
On staying expensive, honestly on the whole dont see that changing; more likely places like DFW, Houston etc will become more expensive thus diminishing some of the benefit driving the growth.
on your later question, my question is why would anyone not live in the NE or West coast; a few exceptions for me but for me to move to Houston for example (which I kind of like and has grown on me) is awful hot in the summer (sure can say winters cold in the NE) and on the whole doesnt offer some of the aspects I find most appealing; so would require one helluva a pay increase to get me to move (highly unlikely as there is virtually no jobs in my line of work anyway there)
Now my statement is kind of silly because that is what I personally prefer and everyones preference is correct but I think the NE and West Coast offer the best of everything (on the whole) if you can afford to live in the nicer areas.
Also it isnt as if there are not jobs in these places either; they are just not adding 100K a year. But then again if in investment banking or marketing consulting not sure those places have anywhere near the jobs; what they are doing is adding many middle paying corporate jobs, a great thing no doubt but the details and opportunities will differ from person to person and industry to industry.
IMHO there are aspects of the sunbelt that will continue but think the fast growers will change over time and in the long run some other areas will generate some benefit to attract the most jobs and be the fast growers, its all cyclical honestly
Last edited by kidphilly; 06-12-2012 at 06:16 PM..
Reason: My spelling/punctuation withstanding on education
The reason the sunbelt is doing so bad is because it never had real economic activity. It was old people retiring, service jobs for the old people, and seasonal service jobs for tourism. Of course some areas in the South do have real economic activity, but as a whole it relied too much on minimum wage, or low paying service jobs. Things seemed ok when everyone was up to their necks accumulating debt to buy a bunch of useless crap, and construction was booming to house retirees and people who worked low paying services jobs.
However, it was an illusion, and the bubble burst. People will still retire to the South and they will need people to serve them at Bob Evans and Target, but without all the debt fueled buying and building the region has peaked. Boomers playing golf can only go so far.
low unemployment is not all encompassing, for the growth the attraction and growth of payrolls is the larger issue and the MOST significant, by a landslide
PA is an awful state for attracting businesses to relocate, Pittsburgh is dong very well with a changing demographic, what it is not doing is adding companies and jobs from relos (at any significant clip).
there are multiple factors, weather, COL, etc.
but ability to attract jobs is NUMERO UNO and by a HUGE margin. no jobs no relos (well over simplified but basically true)
Also in general people with good jobs and upwardly mobil move because of opportunity, not to a place, and alsobased on the industry. People move to the fast growers because jobs are plentiful, they are not flocking there just to flock there (that is LA and NYC honestly), basically all others are job driven
If Houston could not add another 100K jobs next and and additional 150K migrated, just watch what happens the following year, this is simple why is everyone trying to make this complex. Job adders attract, plain and simple
Why did Detroit grow, Chicago, etc etc etc
I highlighted your comment above about Houston. You missed the original point of this debate a few pages back. The question was, why cities like Charlotte, and I'll even through in Atlanta; why have they continued to be huge population gainers given their unemployment rates have been so high for years now, since the recession. The TX metros are the exception. But if you look at places like Charlotte, the Florida metros, and Atlanta, people obviously aren't still moving there because they are "big job gainers". It goes back to what I said, people move to places they want to be. That's really the part that's simple.
well sort of a tale of two demographics, those doing well (making bank as you call it, but to me bank is a lot, so I would say a good 6 figure and up salary, bank to me is probably into the 7 figures) may likely stay
There are also many on the other end without the means or skills/education to port to another location.
On cost it is supply and demand. It isnt as if the very desirable areas are not nor will remain in high demand. the NE and west coast have many places that offer tremendous living. Be that educational systems (genrally the best in the country among the desirable or even middle class areas, great benefit for families with children), cultural amentities, access to nature and museums and restaurants etc. (and to me beaches too, huge to me personally, though some do but DFW and Atlanta are WAY to far and even Houston is further from the type I personally like from my experience)
These places dont stay desirable because they offer less, they stay desirable because they offer a ton.
Also it is a misnomer to think people are just flocking from these places. maybe like 1-2% of the populace a year and generally those that may have under performed in the market or sought job opportunities not available where they came from. Still some may desire a different weather, more modern place and the places with job growth may offer this migration.
On staying expensive, honestly on the whole dont see that changing; more likely places like DFW, Houston etc will become more expensive thus diminishing some of the benefit driving the growth.
on your later question, my question is why would anyone not live in the NE or West coast; a few exceptions for me but for me to move to Houston for example (which I kind of like and has grown on me) is awful hot in the summer (sure can say winters cold in the NE) and on the whole doesnt offer some of the aspects I find most appealing; so would require one helluva a pay increase to get me to move (highly unlikely as there is virtually no jobs in my line of work anyway there)
Now my statement is kind of silly because that is what I personally prefer and everyones preference is correct but I think the NE and West Coast offer the best of everything (on the whole) if you can afford to live in the nicer areas.
Also it isnt as if there are not jobs in these places either; they are just not adding 100K a year. But then again if in investment banking or marketing consulting not sure those places have anywhere near the jobs; what they are doing is adding many middle paying corporate jobs, a great thing no doubt but the details and opportunities will differ from person to person and industry to industry.
IMHO there are aspects of the sunbelt that will continue but think the fast growers will change over time and in the long run some other areas will generate some benefit to attract the most jobs and be the fast growers, its all cyclical honestly
I was under the impression that the middle paying corporate jobs were being axed and the only real growth is in low wage retail or service sector jobs. The job market for people coming out of college is terrible and many new graduates would do a lot better financially (not have to wait until they are 50 to buy a house, not have to work a second job, etc.) moving to a place with a lower cost of living. Apparently that must not be important to them. If the economy stays this way, the Millenials are not going to be able to afford their parent's housing stock and the prices are going to have to go down. Of course they wouldn't have world class museums or maybe even major league sports. They might have to "settle" for a smaller museum or a minor league team. But they could have a nice job, nice house, and lifestyle that they could only dream of in the more expensive area. Not to mention how rude a lot of people are in the Northeast metro areas as well!
The reason the sunbelt is doing so bad is because it never had real economic activity. It was old people retiring, service jobs for the old people, and seasonal service jobs for tourism. Of course some areas in the South do have real economic activity, but as a whole it relied too much on minimum wage, or low paying service jobs. Things seemed ok when everyone was up to their necks accumulating debt to buy a bunch of useless crap, and construction was booming to house retirees and people who worked low paying services jobs.
However, it was an illusion, and the bubble burst. People will still retire to the South and they will need people to serve them at Bob Evans and Target, but without all the debt fueled buying and building the region has peaked. Boomers playing golf can only go so far.
I have to disagree with this. As far as the larger metros go, the retiree havens were mainly the Florida cities. Houston, Dallas-Fort Worth, Austin, Nashville, Atlanta, Charlotte, and Raleigh-Durham were/are real centers of economic activity. They attracted some retirees too, but it was/is mainly families and young professionals.
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