The Sunbelt Boom is Not Going to End (house, employment)

[Infamous Past]

Originally Posted by HAC NY

Yet southern metros are all the way at the bottom when it comes to per capita income. What does the south have to show for its large growth? Absolutely nothing.

There is a difference between growth and good growth. The "sunbelt growth" has done nothing but shifted problems of the Northeast to sunbelt states (i.e. look at your real estate industry, spiking poverty levels, higher than average unemployment).

Grow away!

I agree, with the exception of Houston and Miami (and coastal FL) there are no southern metros that rank respectably in per capita income. Atlanta which southerners claim their "capital" ranks # 134

[$mk8795]

Originally Posted by brent6969

I totally agree with you, it seems like traffic gets worse everyday in Atlanta and I see hundreds of cars with out of state tags every single day.

No different than Philly, Boston, New York, Chicago, and the West Coast.......

[Cleveland_Collector]

The sunbelt "boom" will end when the water rationing begins and/or when energy gets too expensive to cool the place down during the 4-5 months of oppressive heat. The "water wars" have commenced in many of the areas already. One day, people will realize that it's a hell of a lot easier (not to mention a hell of a lot more efficient) to heat up than it is to cool down and that lawns (and just about everything else) are tough to grow where there isn't any rain. Until then...

[knowledgeiskey]

Originally Posted by HAC NY

Yet southern metros are all the way at the bottom when it comes to per capita income. What does the south have to show for its large growth? Absolutely nothing.

There is a difference between growth and good growth. The "sunbelt growth" has done nothing but shifted problems of the Northeast to sunbelt states (i.e. look at your real estate industry, spiking poverty levels, higher than average unemployment).

Grow away!

Hey I agree with you 100%.

But you must admit that the growth will not end anytime soon.

[ckhthankgod]

Originally Posted by knowledgeiskey

Hey I agree with you 100%.

But you must admit that the growth will not end anytime soon.

I think it will slow down, but it won't stop. Certain metros will continue to boom, but some will level out sooner than later.

I think a part of this is that people get so caught up in one aspect in terms of cost of living, like here in NY, taxes seem to be brought up a lot. What people do not realize is that our property tax rates are high because our housing is affordable. People also forget that other states have taxes we don't have like vehicle taxes, for example. If you look at Upstate NY metros and Southern metros, you will notice that the cost of living is about the same in a general sense. Same for many other metros in the NE and Midwest.

Also, the water aspect will be a key when looking at certain Sunbelt metros. That's why I think an area like mine can grow again, if the right people know how to take advantage of it's resources(people, natural and location). If water is going to be a big deal in the future, I would think that areas that are in a great location in terms of fresh water should be looked even in a Natural Security aspect, when that time comes.

[Spade]

Originally Posted by jbcmh81

True, it sucks just about everywhere, but it seems to have hit the South and West pretty hard.

The unemployment rate is above the national average in South Carolina, North Carolina, Georgia, Florida, Mississippi, Tennessee, Kentucky, West Virginia, Arizona, California, Nevada, Oregon, Idaho, and DC.

Other states with high growth rates but also high unemployment at or above 8% are Louisiana, Alabama, Texas, Washington, and Colorado.

Most of the states with lower than 8% rates tend to be in the Northeast, Midwest, and Plains.

Tell the entire story. The reason why the unemployment rates in those states are lower than 8% is because there aren't many industries in those states to affect it's rating. States lower than 8% are North Dakota, South Dakota, Nebraska, Vermont, New Hampshire, Wyoming, Kansas, Iowa, and a few others. There won't be a high rate if there are hardly any jobs there to begin with.

[sliverbox]

Yet southern metros are all the way at the bottom when it comes to per capita income. What does the south have to show for its large growth? Absolutely nothing.

There is a difference between growth and good growth. The "sunbelt growth" has done nothing but shifted problems of the Northeast to sunbelt states (i.e. look at your real estate industry, spiking poverty levels, higher than average unemployment).

The biggest difference between the Northeast, West Coast, and the South is in how far your dollars will go and the quality of life in general. I am a native Southerner and I have spent the past 12 years living on the coasts- first in Boston, now in the Bay Area of California. I'm making more money than I've ever made in my life. Yet we rent because houses anywhere near us START at $500,000 and up. In Boston it was about the same. We could afford to buy but it would suck up most of our incomes.

On the other hand my parents still live in TN. Neither make what I'd call great money. Mom is a teacher. Dad does small jobs on the side. BUT- they own a decent 2 story home on 15 acres of land, with a pool, a nice workshop, 2 newer cars, and what's more- they actually own all of the above outright. If they were to buy what they own now in either Boston or SF they would have to literally make millions of dollars. The bottom line is that there is a huge disparity in costs between these regions. The middle class long ago stopped being able to afford the coasts and the upper middle class is now struggling to even have what I'd call a halfway decent middle class lifestyle.

Secondly, I do think weather has a lot to do with the decision to move- particularly from the colder states. After living in MA I can honestly say the weather there was AWFUL. I can't imagine spending my whole life there having to deal with 6 months straight of frigid, cold, snowy weather. The summers were brutal too. So in reality there was like maybe 2-3 months of decent weather. The rest of the year was miserable. It used to be that people had to work where there was water. By virtue of being the first region to experience economic growth the Northeast built up a huge economic infrastructure and fortune 500 companies. It was where all the jobs were. Thus bad weather or not- you had to stay wherever the office was. These days major companies have branch offices in every major city. Telecommuting is also becoming more and more common. So if you're a person living in NY or NJ and have the opportunity to live somewhere warmer AND work at the same type of job, then why stay? Sure- some people don't mind cold weather. Some people also can't stand hot humid weather. But people are generally more conditioned to favor warm weather. Thus the reason so many flock to places like Florida, California, and Arizona when they retire.

You look at just about any of these forums 90% of those moving to the South are from the Northeast or the West Coast. Whenever I go home the rate of expansion is huge. I have to admit I'm not totally pleased with this because so much of it is sprawl. There are a lot fewer regulations and as a result homes and shopping centers are being thrown up everywhere.

We've been saving for years because at some point we're going to move back. But I'm getting just a tad worried that the South I'll return to will basically be transformed into yet another overcrowded and overpriced region akin to the states those who moved from escaped. Time will tell. Hopefully not.

[jbcmh81]

Originally Posted by Spade

Tell the entire story. The reason why the unemployment rates in those states are lower than 8% is because there aren't many industries in those states to affect it's rating. States lower than 8% are North Dakota, South Dakota, Nebraska, Vermont, New Hampshire, Wyoming, Kansas, Iowa, and a few others. There won't be a high rate if there are hardly any jobs there to begin with.

That doesn't even make sense. Unemployment rates are affected by people who cannot find work because there are not enough jobs. If there are no companies to employ residents, the obvious result would be higher unemployment, not lower.

I remember seeing a report on the news about North Dakota in particular and how they had way more jobs available than they had people. They were practically begging people to move there to fill them.

[carolinablue]

Originally Posted by Cleveland_Collector

The sunbelt "boom" will end when the water rationing begins and/or when energy gets too expensive to cool the place down during the 4-5 months of oppressive heat. The "water wars" have commenced in many of the areas already. One day, people will realize that it's a hell of a lot easier (not to mention a hell of a lot more efficient) to heat up than it is to cool down and that lawns (and just about everything else) are tough to grow where there isn't any rain. Until then...

Rains here all the time.

[carolinablue]

Originally Posted by Infamous Past

I agree, with the exception of Houston and Miami (and coastal FL) there are no southern metros that rank respectably in per capita income. Atlanta which southerners claim their "capital" ranks # 134

Oh well. Much cheaper to live off of limited income here. I do quite well, thank you.