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Old 02-03-2011, 09:27 AM
 
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Quote:
Originally Posted by sliverbox View Post
Faded? how do you gather that? Why is it that in the last few years ( as in in the last year or 2) Toyota, Nissan, Kia, and even a few electric vehicle startups have setup plants in the South? How come numerous pharmaceutical firms moved to North Carolina? I grew up in TN and have lived in both the Northeast and West Coast and whenever I visit back home the amount of industrial/economic growth is heads and tails way above anything I am seeing on the West Coast or what I saw in the Northeast. If anything the coasts and Midwest are for the most part fairly stagnant.
Well.....its called momentum. Does your car stop immediately after you take your foot off the accelerator? Does your bike come to an immediate stop when you stop pedaling? Did people immediately stop moving to places like Atlanta despite the loss of thousands of jobs in the area? The Southeast still has some mometum from the acceleration of its past and the Midwest and North still has an inertia to forward progress born from its bacward momentum. The South still has the reputation as having the cheaper cost, for sure, but that is a lot less true than in the past. Reallity will soon erode that reputation. Also, a lot of those decisions to move or build plants in the South were made long ago before the ramifcation of the economic collapse.

Quote:
If you compare most major cities like Chicago, New York, Boston, LA, SF,DC, Seattle, and so on and so on these cities are still as much as 2 and 3 times more expensive to live in than most Southern cities. Where I live now a halfway decent house is $500,000. Back home I could buy a pretty nice house on some land for under $150,000. The cost of living advantage in the South is still a huge advantage and this will continue to be a huge draw. I'll be the first to tell you I am not thrilled about seeing my home region being flooded with people. But the economic growth I'm seeing there is undeniable and I suspect it will continue.
The flaw here is that you are only focusing on 1st tier cities in the North and West. There are MANY 2nd and 3rd tier cities in the North and West where the cost rival that of the South. There are many metro areas that have from a half a million to a million people or slightly over a million people in the North and West. To simply focus on the Largest cities helps to make your case, true, but it ignores that there are many Northern cities whose cost are a lot cheaper than Larger northern cities. The Right-to-work laws of the South traditionally gave it a big labor advantage. However, the Unions in the North are a shell of what they once were and the pay and benefits of new hires, who enter the union, is half of what it was a few years ago, making pay more in line with Right-to-Work states.

I can remember about 6 years ago when I was telling people that there would be a major economic collapse in a few years. People laughed at the thought and some forum moderators even attempted to subdue my thoughts because they wanted their forum to represent a more positive vibe. Some time people just can't handle the truth.
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Old 02-03-2011, 10:03 AM
 
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Quote:
Well.....its called momentum. Does your car stop immediately after you take your foot off the accelerator? Does your bike come to an immediate stop when you stop pedaling? Did people immediately stop moving to places like Atlanta despite the loss of thousands of jobs in the area? The Southeast still has some mometum from the acceleration of its past and the Midwest and North still has an inertia to forward progress born from its bacward momentum. The South still has the reputation as having the cheaper cost, for sure, but that is a lot less true than in the past. Reallity will soon erode that reputation. Also, a lot of those decisions to move or build plants in the South were made long ago before the ramifcation of the economic collapse.
The problem with your argument is that you are only focusing on only one aspect of the economic situation in the South: Cheaper labor costs. The other side of the reason for why the South is growing as it is- and perhaps even more so- is that the parts of the country that have younger populations also tend to grow a larger creative/innovative class. The cities of Atlanta, Austin, Raleigh, and others in the region all tend to have younger than average populations. Given that Atlanta, Houston, Dallas, Austin, Nashville, Raleigh, and even Huntsville are all home to a huge number of fortune 500 national companies is further proof that the region is economically diversified. This diversity is what creates permanence and economic expansion. Its not just about manufacturing and cheap labor anymore. Its about general economic growth. The South has all of the important ingredients in place that have historically fostered healthy regional economies: Affordable housing, lower business costs, a diversified economy, and a young creative class.

Quote:
"The flaw here is that you are only focusing on 1st tier cities in the North and West. There are MANY 2nd and 3rd tier cities in the North and West where the cost rival that of the South. There are many metro areas that have from a half a million to a million people or slightly over a million people in the North and West. To simply focus on the Largest cities helps to make your case, true, but it ignores that there are many Northern cities whose cost are a lot cheaper than Larger northern cities. The Right-to-work laws of the South traditionally gave it a big labor advantage. However, the Unions in the North are a shell of what they once were and the pay and benefits of new hires, who enter the union, is half of what it was a few years ago, making pay more in line with Right-to-Work states.
1 in 5 Americans live in California. Most live in LA, San Francisco, San Diego, and Sacramento. All of those cities are far and beyond the cost of most any other major or minor metro. A further 22 Million live in the combined metros of NY, NJ, and CT. A further 4.5 million live in the Boston metro. Thus one in ten Americans live in these metros alone. Thus by default, over 1/4th of the country's population live in higher than average cost of living metros. The costs of living in these metros has created pressures on people to relocate and a huge number of these people are relocating to the South mainly for the reasons I gave above. If there were in fact equal or greater opportunities in the rust belt or other Northern states or even in some Western ones as well... then they would be flocking to these places. But the fact is that they're not.

Lastly- weather. This is an aspect that can't be taken lightly. If you're living in some overpriced Northern metro and are looking to relocate, then given the choice why would you choose to relocate to yet another cold and miserable northern city when you could move to a warmer Southern city that has greater economic opportunities? I think the gut reaction most people have is that:
Quote:
" Well- If I'm going to move, it might as well me someplace warmer."
I see this over and over and over again: Some family from Wisconsin, Michigan, Minnesota, New Jersey, and so forth. Where do they move? They move someplace warm and even if its hot as hell- they loooove that idea. Trust me- living out here in California it seems like they might as well call California Cali-Jersey because I swear like 50% of the people I know here are from the Northeast. Either that or Ohio. Again- people are highly motivated by weather because the impact weather has on your daily quality of life can't be underestimated.
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Old 02-03-2011, 10:49 AM
 
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Quote:
Originally Posted by sliverbox View Post
The problem with your argument is that you are only focusing on only one aspect of the economic situation in the South: Cheaper labor costs. The other side of the reason for why the South is growing as it is- and perhaps even more so- is that the parts of the country that have younger populations also tend to grow a larger creative/innovative class. The cities of Atlanta, Austin, Raleigh, and others in the region all tend to have younger than average populations. Given that Atlanta, Houston, Dallas, Austin, Nashville, Raleigh, and even Huntsville are all home to a huge number of fortune 500 national companies is further proof that the region is economically diversified. This diversity is what creates permanence and economic expansion. Its not just about manufacturing and cheap labor anymore. Its about general economic growth. The South has all of the important ingredients in place that have historically fostered healthy regional economies: Affordable housing, lower business costs, a diversified economy, and a young creative class.
They have younger than average population because jobs moved South and young professionals from the North followed those jobs south.....then had kids. We live in a highly mobil era. People will follow jobs as jobs follow low cost.


Quote:
1 in 5 Americans live in California. Most live in LA, San Francisco, San Diego, and Sacramento. All of those cities are far and beyond the cost of most any other major or minor metro. A further 22 Million live in the combined metros of NY, NJ, and CT. A further 4.5 million live in the Boston metro. Thus one in ten Americans live in these metros alone. Thus by default, over 1/4th of the country's population live in higher than average cost of living metros. The costs of living in these metros has created pressures on people to relocate and a huge number of these people are relocating to the South mainly for the reasons I gave above. If there were in fact equal or greater opportunities in the rust belt or other Northern states or even in some Western ones as well... then they would be flocking to these places. But the fact is that they're not.
But lets examine why cost are so high in those places. They are high because the weather is GREAT all year round, they have beaches mountains...etc....and thus it created a huge demand for people to live there.....near the coast and they ran out of space.

There is a point of diminishing return to growth. Atlanta cannot continue to sprawl out with people communting an hour each way daily.....especially in an era of high gas prices. So whats going to happen is that growth is going to be restricted, meaning developers will not be allowed to keep building further out. Once an area becomes bounded from outward development, prices start to rise. Have you ever considered what gave the South such a big advantage was the fact that they did not have really big cities for a long time? Becoming "big" creates a lot of the problems that ultimately lead to people and jobs relocating. Now that many Southern cities are becoming "Big" they lose their distinction from Big Norther and Western cities.


Quote:
Lastly- weather. This is an aspect that can't be taken lightly. If you're living in some overpriced Northern metro and are looking to relocate, then given the choice why would you choose to relocate to yet another cold and miserable northern city when you could move to a warmer Southern city that has greater economic opportunities? I think the gut reaction most people have is that:

I see this over and over and over again: Some family from Wisconsin, Michigan, Minnesota, New Jersey, and so forth. Where do they move? They move someplace warm and even if its hot as hell- they loooove that idea. Trust me- living out here in California it seems like they might as well call California Cali-Jersey because I swear like 50% of the people I know here are from the Northeast. Either that or Ohio. Again- people are highly motivated by weather because the impact weather has on your daily quality of life can't be underestimated.
Hey.....you got a point there because I hate this cold in Minnesota....and I moved here from Michigan. However, there are MANY people who HATE the heat as much as people hate the cold. They reason that they can always put on more clothes to stay warm.....but they cannot take off enough clothes to cool off.

Let ne tell you what I like about the North, though. I love all the historic architecture and old neigborhoods. One has to realize that most of the Northern large metros had most of their population before 1950. This results in a lot of old historic architecture. There is a certain "feel" about living up North than is not replicated down South (I lived in Atlanta for a couple of years). I like the change of season and LOVE the fall and the colors (although I do HATE the winters).
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Old 02-03-2011, 11:28 AM
 
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Quote:
They have younger than average population because jobs moved South and young professionals from the North followed those jobs south.....then had kids. We live in a highly mobil era. People will follow jobs as jobs follow low cost.
Some of that is true but the bulk of the reason is because there are jobs in the South that attract young professionals. A recent survey showed that as much as 60% of those under the age of 35 in coastal metros had plans to relocate. Also- since there are less opportunities for younger families in major metros these families tend to move as well and thus why you have a lot more young families in the Southern region too.

Quote:
But lets examine why cost are so high in those places. They are high because the weather is GREAT all year round, they have beaches mountains...etc....and thus it created a huge demand for people to live there.....near the coast and they ran out of space.

There is a point of diminishing return to growth. Atlanta cannot continue to sprawl out with people communting an hour each way daily.....especially in an era of high gas prices. So whats going to happen is that growth is going to be restricted, meaning developers will not be allowed to keep building further out. Once an area becomes bounded from outward development, prices start to rise. Have you ever considered what gave the South such a big advantage was the fact that they did not have really big cities for a long time? Becoming "big" creates a lot of the problems that ultimately lead to people and jobs relocating. Now that many Southern cities are becoming "Big" they lose their distinction from Big Norther and Western cities.
That doesn't explain why people pay tons of money to live in NYC, Boston, Chicago, and NJ. All of those cities lack the beautiful natural surroundings you'd find out west- yet NYC costs more than places like SF and LA. The weather in NYC is AWFUL yet it costs a million bucks for a condo.

You're right that a lot of the traditional-mega cities are constrained by natural boundaries. As such as they grow land becomes more and more precious- and thus more costly. You also corrected indicated that Southern cities are not as constrained. Thus there is an almost endless supply of cheap buildable land. Using Atlanta is an extreme case because there's no other Southern city that's quite that large- unless we're also including Texas. Most Southern cities are tiny. Nashville is only about 450,000 people. Most midsized Southern cities are similar. Even so- Nashville actually has a metro train system in the works. But the bottom line is that most Southern cities are still very early in their development and have decades to go before they come anywhere close to matching the size and density of the traditional cities.

Lastly- its sort of a generalization that ALL southern cities lack any kind of unique or charming areas. The small city I grew up in in TN has a really nice old downtown. It looks like a page right out of the history books and has a fully restored theater complete with a Wurlitzer organ, a number of cool museums, followed by some city parks, microwbreweries, and old walkable neighborhoods. The North Carolina Blue ridge Parkway is about the most beautiful part of the country. Asheville is really nice. The best part about a lot of Southern cities ( with the exception of Atlanta) is that you can leave the city and be out in the countryside in as little as 15-20 minutes. You mention fall colors. Where I grew up we ironically got tons and tons of Northerners who swept down to the Smokey Mountains to watch the turning of the leaves. If you're trying to indicate that the South is entirely sprawl then perhaps you didn't really look around enough. Then again- we native Southerners know these things.
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Old 02-03-2011, 12:34 PM
 
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Quote:
Originally Posted by sliverbox View Post
Some of that is true but the bulk of the reason is because there are jobs in the South that attract young professionals. A recent survey showed that as much as 60% of those under the age of 35 in coastal metros had plans to relocate. Also- since there are less opportunities for younger families in major metros these families tend to move as well and thus why you have a lot more young families in the Southern region too.
Right....and the what attracted the Jobs to the South was NOT young professional, but Lower cost. This then attracted the young professionals. Young professional are more and more attracted to the Urban, Artsy, semi-gritty cool environments that many Northern Cities have. They like Walkable communities of high density. This is why such neighborhoods of walkable high density were recently built in the city of Atlanta. The North alread has ready made High density areas like this that are being Gentrified.

Quote:
That doesn't explain why people pay tons of money to live in NYC, Boston, Chicago, and NJ. All of those cities lack the beautiful natural surroundings you'd find out west- yet NYC costs more than places like SF and LA. The weather in NYC is AWFUL yet it costs a million bucks for a condo.

You don't know.....its the EXCITEMENT baby!!! There is a certain high energy vibe living in high desity areas. Have you even been to Europe? High density, done right, allows mass transit, walkable communities, people watching and a vibe that you cannot get in low density spread out areas.

Quote:
You're right that a lot of the traditional-mega cities are constrained by natural boundaries. As such as they grow land becomes more and more precious- and thus more costly. You also corrected indicated that Southern cities are not as constrained. Thus there is an almost endless supply of cheap buildable land. Using Atlanta is an extreme case because there's no other Southern city that's quite that large- unless we're also including Texas. Most Southern cities are tiny. Nashville is only about 450,000 people. Most midsized Southern cities are similar. Even so- Nashville actually has a metro train system in the works. But the bottom line is that most Southern cities are still very early in their development and have decades to go before they come anywhere close to matching the size and density of the traditional cities.
No....but the attraction of places like Atlanta for many transplants is the low density. They like the trees, the large lots, the open spaces and many things that make the area different from whence they came. If you start building at high densities rising demand against a finite supply will raise prices regardless if there is ample land. If it did not matter then developers would not have continued to stretch the limits of the boundaries. Also, when you increase the density you just turn it into the type of places that people left.

Quote:
Lastly- its sort of a generalization that ALL southern cities lack any kind of unique or charming areas. The small city I grew up in in TN has a really nice old downtown. It looks like a page right out of the history books and has a fully restored theater complete with a Wurlitzer organ, a number of cool museums, followed by some city parks, microwbreweries, and old walkable neighborhoods. The North Carolina Blue ridge Parkway is about the most beautiful part of the country. Asheville is really nice. The best part about a lot of Southern cities ( with the exception of Atlanta) is that you can leave the city and be out in the countryside in as little as 15-20 minutes. You mention fall colors. Where I grew up we ironically got tons and tons of Northerners who swept down to the Smokey Mountains to watch the turning of the leaves. If you're trying to indicate that the South is entirely sprawl then perhaps you didn't really look around enough. Then again- we native Southerners know these things.
Yeah....but those old areas are small and a massive influx of people would ruin all the charm. What makes a lot of those places so appealing and charming is the fact that they are small and not filled with hustle and bustle. If massive people started moving to those places it would destoy much of what made it attractive.

You have to realize that things run in cycles. The North had its boom period, followed by Bust. California had its boom period more recently. The South has had its boom Period. Points of diminishing returns are always an eventuallity that kills bust. The growth eventually becomes the problem and the growth diminishes.
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Old 02-03-2011, 01:06 PM
 
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I suppose my opinions are a little different than yours perhaps because I not only grew up in the South, but I've also lived on both coasts. There are advantages to both "types" of environments. I actually grew up in a very rural area. We kept ourselves entertained. This is very different from people that live in cities who seem to demand entertainment 24/7.

But nevertheless, from my experience its far more difficult and stressful to live in most of the major older established metros. There is a very clear and drastic stratified class structure. On both the East and West coast it seems that there is a whole lot of rich people and a whole lot of poor people with nothing inbetween. We actually make what would probably put us in the upper earning bracket back home but here we would barely be able to afford a small starter home. The story that has been unfolding is the plight of the middle class and where they're moving. I think for now the Southern US provides a more ideal environment for the middle class.

I can't deny that there are some great things about where I live. Lots of history, interesting cultures, food, people, and job opportunities. But at the end of the day living in these places has shown me just how good things were back home in comparison. Truth be known if I had stayed I would probably be living in a more comfortable situation than I am now. With that we're saving up and will at some point move back where we can buy a home and live fairly comfortably.

I think a lot of people who live in the Northeast and the West Coast have finally decided that enough is enough. We're a big country with lots of land. If things get tough in one area- then you can always vote with your feet and that's exactly what they're doing. Will the South eventually become overrun, overcrowded and overpriced? Perhaps. I don't see it happening anytime soon. But I fail to see how that would be any worse than the places those who moved escaped from. We are a migratory country. We move where there is opportunity.
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Old 02-03-2011, 04:46 PM
 
Location: Birmingham
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Originally Posted by Ohio248 View Post
I don't think anyone is moving to North Georgia for the winter weather.

The Atlanta area gets plenty of snow and below-zero temps. Only a fool would move to Atlanta to escape the winter.

You have to move south of Orlando to really escape the winter. At the least, you want to be near the coast. Atlanta is in the Appalachian foothills, and gets the same storms that hit the Northeast and Midwest.
I can't believe you are actually comparing an Atlanta winter to a winter up north. Even after the snow storms we've had this year in this country you still believe that?

I do not live in Atlanta, but they get about the same level of snow we do and I'll say this: I don't own a winter car. Salt does not eat up my vehicles. I have never put on chains, bought a set of snow tires and one of my vehicles rides on summer tires all year round, our other cars stay on all-seasons. The soccer mom types and non-outdoorsy types typically buy 2WD SUVs and trucks. Subarus are not popular here at all. A 4WD crossover carries no extra value over the same model in 2WD form and might actually be a turn off to some buyers because most feel it would be extra maintenance and something they won't need. I've never seen a significant amount of snow stay on the ground here for more then 3-4 days in my life and I am in my mid 30's and even then just once. I think I can count the number of days that it has actually been below zero ALL DAY here (this year) on one hand.

Nobody living up north can say the same thing. We have long hot muggy summers here, yes - but we go inside and turn on the A/c - we get in our cars and turn on the A/C and life goes on. That is a minor inconvenience compared to what I am seeing on the news every morning with you guys and your shovels, snow blowers and snow plows crashing into parked cars and people slipping and busting on the sidewalk.

Last edited by Tourian; 02-03-2011 at 04:58 PM..
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Old 02-03-2011, 06:47 PM
 
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[IQUOTE=Tourian;17712622]I can't believe you are actually comparing an Atlanta winter to a winter up north. Even after the snow storms we've had this year in this country you still believe that?

I do not live in Atlanta, but they get about the same level of snow we do and I'll say this: I don't own a winter car. Salt does not eat up my vehicles. I have never put on chains, bought a set of snow tires and one of my vehicles rides on summer tires all year round, our other cars stay on all-seasons. The soccer mom types and non-outdoorsy types typically buy 2WD SUVs and trucks. Subarus are not popular here at all. A 4WD crossover carries no extra value over the same model in 2WD form and might actually be a turn off to some buyers because most feel it would be extra maintenance and something they won't need. I've never seen a significant amount of snow stay on the ground here for more then 3-4 days in my life and I am in my mid 30's and even then just once. I think I can count the number of days that it has actually been below zero ALL DAY here (this year) on one hand.

Nobody living up north can say the same thing. We have long hot muggy summers here, yes - but we go inside and turn on the A/c - we get in our cars and turn on the A/C and life goes on. That is a minor inconvenience compared to what I am seeing on the news every morning with you guys and your shovels, snow blowers and snow plows crashing into parked cars and people slipping and busting on the sidewalk.[/quote]

That's for cities/areas thay don't know how to handle it. I've never had chains, snow tires or any of the other issues mentioned. Many times what you see is stuff that the media hypes up and for areas that don't have the equipment to handle the storm. Life goes on here as well and I live in an area that has averaged
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Old 02-03-2011, 06:52 PM
 
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(cont'd) 115 inches of snow a winter, but you wouldn't know it by the way it gets cleared in a timely manner.
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Old 02-04-2011, 04:14 AM
 
3,548 posts, read 4,964,639 times
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Originally Posted by Tourian View Post
I can't believe you are actually comparing an Atlanta winter to a winter up north. Even after the snow storms we've had this year in this country you still believe that?

I do not live in Atlanta, but they get about the same level of snow we do and I'll say this: I don't own a winter car. Salt does not eat up my vehicles. I have never put on chains, bought a set of snow tires and one of my vehicles rides on summer tires all year round, our other cars stay on all-seasons. The soccer mom types and non-outdoorsy types typically buy 2WD SUVs and trucks. Subarus are not popular here at all. A 4WD crossover carries no extra value over the same model in 2WD form and might actually be a turn off to some buyers because most feel it would be extra maintenance and something they won't need. I've never seen a significant amount of snow stay on the ground here for more then 3-4 days in my life and I am in my mid 30's and even then just once. I think I can count the number of days that it has actually been below zero ALL DAY here (this year) on one hand.

Nobody living up north can say the same thing. We have long hot muggy summers here, yes - but we go inside and turn on the A/c - we get in our cars and turn on the A/C and life goes on. That is a minor inconvenience compared to what I am seeing on the news every morning with you guys and your shovels, snow blowers and snow plows crashing into parked cars and people slipping and busting on the sidewalk.
yall got a day when it was below zero? I can't ever remember a day here when it got that cold. I think the point is, Atlanta does have a winter, it does have snow at least once a year, and apparently days where it gets below zero, so it's not like Southern Florida or SoCal where snow is absolutely rare and winter doesn't really exist.
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