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I notice in Alabama it's the majority black counties that are purple (Perry, Wilcox, Macon, Lowndes, Bullock). I wonder if people are moving out or if they're not having as many kids (blacks in the South traditionally have large families)?
From Louisiana to Virginia, I expect we will see this trend accelerate across the Southeast.
I think the reason is a mix of both, based on what I see in North Carolina. The few counties in NC with black majorities tend to be extremely rural and agricultural, so you have counties with very little industry, and rapidly aging populations. In those counties, population declines are projected, as younger folks - especially younger folks (black or white) with any semblance of an education or any professional aspirations move off to Raleigh, Charlotte, Richmond< Atlanta or D.C. as soon as they can - they go off to college, and they don't move back, so there's a serious brain drain out of those counties. This turns into a mean cycle - more educated or entrepreneurial types leave, which only deepens any poverty, absence of cultural/social outlets, and weak educational systems in those counties. So very, very few people move back.
I have a friend who has a masters in physics and was applying for H.S. and college teaching gigs, and he held out working retail in the Triangle until he could land a job in one of the bigger S.E. cities. He had gotten a few offers in some of those rural counties, and his issues was the absolute lack of anything to do, for a single 29-year-old guy. There's an example of the kind of thing that propels people out of those counties.
And this is sad because those are the very places that need to hang on to all the entrepreneurs and educated folks they can.
The phenomena of rural depopulation in most of the Plains states is at least equally severe, starting during the dust bowl (there are counties in the Dakotas whose populations started falling in the 1930s and has declined steadily ever since. Both in the Plains and in the Southeast, perhaps some sort of cultural and business shift would really be needed - a shift away from things like factory farms and agribusiness, and towards better support for small/local/independent agriculture.
Is that where you're from? what's the story, why are they losing so much population?
That's where my parents are from, and where a lot of my extended family still lives. The county has lost most of its industry in the last 30 years, and its location in the state isn't very convenient, even compared to other counties nearby.
To the west, Livingston County is in a decent spot because it's the junction of two U.S. highways (U.S. 36 and U.S. 65), and it's also close enough to Kansas City to get their FM radio stations clearly. It's only about an hour from Chillicothe into Kansas City, via U.S. 36 and I-35. You'll notice that Livingston County's population increased.
Even Macon County to the east has it better since it's at the junction of two U.S. highways as well (U.S. 36 and U.S. 63), and it's an hour straight south on U.S. 63 into Columbia. Kirksville and Moberly are a couple other fair-sized towns on U.S. 63.
On the other hand, Linn County just has U.S. 36. It's far enough away from Kansas City that their FM radio signals become spotty; it takes longer to get to Kansas City from Brookfield (Linn County's largest town) than it does from Chillicothe, and there's no direct route to Columbia from Brookfield like there is from Macon. The major north/south road is MO 5, which takes you down to...Booneville.
Still, Linn County is a home away from home for me, and when U.S. 36 is upgraded to I-72, then that might provide a shot in the arm for the whole region.
Nebraska was released today, and the trend of rural flight is clearly continuing:
However, it is interesting to see a place like Arthur County gain a little bit. Some of the rural counties with extremely small populations may have bottomed-out for now. Arthur County's population was 444 in 2000; it was 460 in 2010.
Omaha MSA[A]
Omaha 2000 767,041
Omaha 2010 865,350
growth of +98,309
growth rate +12.8%
compared to national average rate[1] 133.5%
compared to state growth rate[3] 191.8%
A low, but noth slight underestimate from 2009 estimate as US Census had Omaha at 849,517.
-------------------------------------------------------
Omaha MSA[A] Nebraska side only
Omaha 2000 649,124
Omaha 2010 742,205
growth of +93,081 (Percent of state growth: 80.89%)
growth rate +14.4%
compared to the national averate rate[1] 149.4%
compared to the state growth rate[3] 215%
-------------------------------------------------------
Omaha cSA[b]
Omaha 2000 803,201
Omaha 2010 902,041
growth of +98,840
growth rate +12.3%
compared to national average rate[1] 128.2%
compared to state growth rate[3] 183.6%
A low, but not slight understimate from 2009 as the US Census had the Omaha CSA at 885,677.
-------------------------------------------------------
Omaha cSA[b] Nebraska side only
Omaha 2000 685,284
Omaha 2010 778,896
growth of +93,612 (Percent of state growth: 81.3%)
growth rate +13.7%
compared to national average rate[1] 142.3%
compared to state average rate[3] 204.5%
-------------------------------
Lincoln MSA[C]
Lincoln 2000 266,787
Lincoln 2010 302,157
growth of +35,370 (Percent of state growth: 30.7%)
growth rate +13.3%
compared to national average rate[1] 138.1%
compared to state growth rate[3] 198.5%
2009 estimate was 298,012
US Department of the census was very close to target for Lincoln.
-------------------------------------------------------
Lincoln CSA [D]
N/A
-------------------------------
Omaha/Lincoln Eventual MSA[E]
Combined 2000 1,069,988
Combined 2010 1,204,198
growth of +134,210
growth rate +12.6%
compared to national average rate[1] 130.7%
compared to state growth rate[3] 188.1%
-------------------------------------------------------
Omaha/Lincoln Eventual MSA[E] - Nebraska side only
Combined 2000 952,071
Combined 2010 1,081,053
growth of +128,982 (Percent of state growth: 112.1%)
growth rate +13.6%
compared to national average rate[1] 141.1%
compared to state growth rate[3] 203.0%
----------------------------------------
County 2000 2010 Growth Rate 2009 Est
Douglas County 463,585 517,110 +53,525 +11.5% 510,199[Close]
Lancaster 250,291 285,407 +35,116 +14.0% 281,531[Close]
Sarpy County 122,595 158,840 +36,245 +29.6% 153,504[Low]
Hall County 53,534 58,607 + 5,073 +9.5% 57,487[Low]
Buffalo County 42,259 46 102 3,843 +9.1% 45,814[Close]
Scotts Bluff 36,951 36 970 19 +0.1% 36,865[Close]
Dodge County 36,160 36 691 531 +1.5% 35,640[Too Low]
Lincoln County 34,632 36 288 1,656 +4.8% 35,670[Low]
Madison County 35,226 34 876 - 350 -1.0% 34,505[Close]
Platte County 31,662 32 237 575 +1.8% 32,515[High]
Adams County 31,151 31 364 213 +0.7% 33,324[Too High]
Cass County 24,334 25 241 907 +3.7% 25,485[High]
Dawson County 24,365 24 326 - 39 -0.2% 25,076[High]
Gage County 22,993 22 311 - 682 -3.0% 22,653[High]
Dakota County 20,253 21 006 753 +3.7% 20,651[Low]
Saunders County 19,830 20 780 950 +4.8% 20,057[Low]
Washington 18,780 20 234 1,454 +7.7% 19,718[Low]
Seward County 16,496 16 750 254 +1.5% 16,481[Low]
Otoe County 15,396 15 740 344 +2.2% 15,214[Too Low]
Saline County 13,843 14 200 357 +2.6% 13,872[Too Low]
-------------------------------------------------------
Omaha city 390,007 408,958 18,951 +4.9% 454,731[Way, Way, Way, Way High][F]
Lincoln city 225,581 258,379 32,798 +14.5% 254,001[Close]
Bellevue city 44,382 50,137 5,755 +13.0% 51,044[Way too High][F]
Grand Island 42,940 48,520 5,580 +13.0% 46,861[Way too low]
Kearney city 27,431 30,787 3,356 +12.2% 30,744[Close]
Fremont city 25,174 26,397 1,223 +4.9% 25,007[Way too Low]
Hastings city 24,064 24,907 843 +3.5% 25,370[Way too High]
North Platte 23,878 24,733 855 +3.6% 24,137[Too Low]
Norfolk city 23,516 24,210 694 +3.0% 23,272[Way too Low]
Columbus city 20,971 22,111 1,140 +5.4% 21,914[Close]
Papillion city 16,363 18,894 2,531 +15.5% 24,280[Way, Way, Way, Way High][F]
La Vista city 11,699 15,758 4,059 +34.7% 16,887[Way too High][F]
Scottsbluff 14,732 15,039 307 +2.1% 14,886[Too Low]
South Sioux 11,925 13,353 1,428 +12.0% 12,213[Way too Low]
Beatrice city 12,496 12,459 - 37 -0.3% 12,564[Close]
Lexington city 10,011 10,230 219 +2.2% 10,275[Close]
Gering city 7,751 8,500 749 +9.7% 7,738[Way too Low]
Alliance city 8,959 8,491 - 468 -5.2% 8,002[Way too Low]
Blair city 7,512 7,990 478 +6.4% 7,700[Too Low]
York city 8,081 7,766 - 315 -3.9% 7,638[Low]
[A]OMB has defined[2] the Omaha MSA as: Douglas, Ne; Sarpy, Ne; Washington, Ne; Saunders, Ne; Cass, Ne; Pottawattamie, IA; Mills, IA; Harrison, IA
[b]OMB has defined[2] the Omaha CSA as it's MSA plus Dodge County (Fremont). In 2013, this will be upgraded to an MSA as well more than 25% of Dodge County residents travel to Douglas County for work[3].
[C]OMB has defined[2] the Lincoln MSA as: Lancaster, NE; Seward, NE
[D]OMB did not define[2] the Lincoln MSA as a CSA with another county.
[E]OMB has NOT defined Omaha - Lincoln as a single MSA at this time. I am including the Omaha CSA as Dodge County will in-fact be included in 2013. There are strong arguments pointing to this happening in 2013 or 2023 because the worker commuter rates in two Omaha MSA counties (Saunders and Cass) have surpassed CSA and MSA levels with Lincoln.
[F]One of two things happened with the Omaha area cities being vastly over-estimated. Since the counties they reside in grew faster than expected, they either: Used the old boundaries from 2000 or these communities didn't annex the many new subdivisions in the area.
-------------------------------------------------------
[1]National average rate: 9.7%
[2]OMB (Office of Management and Budget) is a US level entity that defines the criteria for an MSA and CSA. For a county to be part of an MSA it must have 25% commuter rate of its work force travel to an adjacent county (that is part of an MSA). A CSA requires a 15% worker commuter rate. The definitions are updated every ten years with the last finished in 2003 and another coming soon in 2013.
[3]The Nebraska Department of Labor website had shown the commuter rate increased from 23% to 26% by 2006.
Omaha MSA[A]
Omaha 2000 767,041
Omaha 2010 865,350
growth of +98,309
growth rate +12.8%
compared to national average rate[1] 133.5%
compared to state growth rate[3] 191.8%
A low, but noth slight underestimate from 2009 estimate as US Census had Omaha at 849,517.
-------------------------------------------------------
Omaha MSA[A] Nebraska side only
Omaha 2000 649,124
Omaha 2010 742,205
growth of +93,081 (Percent of state growth: 80.89%)
growth rate +14.4%
compared to the national averate rate[1] 149.4%
compared to the state growth rate[3] 215%
-------------------------------------------------------
Omaha cSA[b]
Omaha 2000 803,201
Omaha 2010 902,041
growth of +98,840
growth rate +12.3%
compared to national average rate[1] 128.2%
compared to state growth rate[3] 183.6%
A low, but not slight understimate from 2009 as the US Census had the Omaha CSA at 885,677.
-------------------------------------------------------
Omaha cSA[b] Nebraska side only
Omaha 2000 685,284
Omaha 2010 778,896
growth of +93,612 (Percent of state growth: 81.3%)
growth rate +13.7%
compared to national average rate[1] 142.3%
compared to state average rate[3] 204.5%
-------------------------------
Lincoln MSA[C]
Lincoln 2000 266,787
Lincoln 2010 302,157
growth of +35,370 (Percent of state growth: 30.7%)
growth rate +13.3%
compared to national average rate[1] 138.1%
compared to state growth rate[3] 198.5%
2009 estimate was 298,012
US Department of the census was very close to target for Lincoln.
-------------------------------------------------------
Lincoln CSA [D]
N/A
-------------------------------
Omaha/Lincoln Eventual MSA[E]
Combined 2000 1,069,988
Combined 2010 1,204,198
growth of +134,210
growth rate +12.6%
compared to national average rate[1] 130.7%
compared to state growth rate[3] 188.1%
-------------------------------------------------------
Omaha/Lincoln Eventual MSA[E] - Nebraska side only
Combined 2000 952,071
Combined 2010 1,081,053
growth of +128,982 (Percent of state growth: 112.1%)
growth rate +13.6%
compared to national average rate[1] 141.1%
compared to state growth rate[3] 203.0%
----------------------------------------
County 2000 2010 Growth Rate 2009 Est
Douglas County 463,585 517,110 +53,525 +11.5% 510,199[Close]
Lancaster 250,291 285,407 +35,116 +14.0% 281,531[Close]
Sarpy County 122,595 158,840 +36,245 +29.6% 153,504[Low]
Hall County 53,534 58,607 + 5,073 +9.5% 57,487[Low]
Buffalo County 42,259 46 102 3,843 +9.1% 45,814[Close]
Scotts Bluff 36,951 36 970 19 +0.1% 36,865[Close]
Dodge County 36,160 36 691 531 +1.5% 35,640[Too Low]
Lincoln County 34,632 36 288 1,656 +4.8% 35,670[Low]
Madison County 35,226 34 876 - 350 -1.0% 34,505[Close]
Platte County 31,662 32 237 575 +1.8% 32,515[High]
Adams County 31,151 31 364 213 +0.7% 33,324[Too High]
Cass County 24,334 25 241 907 +3.7% 25,485[High]
Dawson County 24,365 24 326 - 39 -0.2% 25,076[High]
Gage County 22,993 22 311 - 682 -3.0% 22,653[High]
Dakota County 20,253 21 006 753 +3.7% 20,651[Low]
Saunders County 19,830 20 780 950 +4.8% 20,057[Low]
Washington 18,780 20 234 1,454 +7.7% 19,718[Low]
Seward County 16,496 16 750 254 +1.5% 16,481[Low]
Otoe County 15,396 15 740 344 +2.2% 15,214[Too Low]
Saline County 13,843 14 200 357 +2.6% 13,872[Too Low]
-------------------------------------------------------
Omaha city 390,007 408,958 18,951 +4.9% 454,731[Way, Way, Way, Way High][F]
Lincoln city 225,581 258,379 32,798 +14.5% 254,001[Close]
Bellevue city 44,382 50,137 5,755 +13.0% 51,044[Way too High][F]
Grand Island 42,940 48,520 5,580 +13.0% 46,861[Way too low]
Kearney city 27,431 30,787 3,356 +12.2% 30,744[Close]
Fremont city 25,174 26,397 1,223 +4.9% 25,007[Way too Low]
Hastings city 24,064 24,907 843 +3.5% 25,370[Way too High]
North Platte 23,878 24,733 855 +3.6% 24,137[Too Low]
Norfolk city 23,516 24,210 694 +3.0% 23,272[Way too Low]
Columbus city 20,971 22,111 1,140 +5.4% 21,914[Close]
Papillion city 16,363 18,894 2,531 +15.5% 24,280[Way, Way, Way, Way High][F]
La Vista city 11,699 15,758 4,059 +34.7% 16,887[Way too High][F]
Scottsbluff 14,732 15,039 307 +2.1% 14,886[Too Low]
South Sioux 11,925 13,353 1,428 +12.0% 12,213[Way too Low]
Beatrice city 12,496 12,459 - 37 -0.3% 12,564[Close]
Lexington city 10,011 10,230 219 +2.2% 10,275[Close]
Gering city 7,751 8,500 749 +9.7% 7,738[Way too Low]
Alliance city 8,959 8,491 - 468 -5.2% 8,002[Way too Low]
Blair city 7,512 7,990 478 +6.4% 7,700[Too Low]
York city 8,081 7,766 - 315 -3.9% 7,638[Low]
[A]OMB has defined[2] the Omaha MSA as: Douglas, Ne; Sarpy, Ne; Washington, Ne; Saunders, Ne; Cass, Ne; Pottawattamie, IA; Mills, IA; Harrison, IA
[b]OMB has defined[2] the Omaha CSA as it's MSA plus Dodge County (Fremont). In 2013, this will be upgraded to an MSA as well more than 25% of Dodge County residents travel to Douglas County for work[3].
[C]OMB has defined[2] the Lincoln MSA as: Lancaster, NE; Seward, NE
[D]OMB did not define[2] the Lincoln MSA as a CSA with another county.
[E]OMB has NOT defined Omaha - Lincoln as a single MSA at this time. I am including the Omaha CSA as Dodge County will in-fact be included in 2013. There are strong arguments pointing to this happening in 2013 or 2023 because the worker commuter rates in two Omaha MSA counties (Saunders and Cass) have surpassed CSA and MSA levels with Lincoln.
[F]One of two things happened with the Omaha area cities being vastly over-estimated. Since the counties they reside in grew faster than expected, they either: Used the old boundaries from 2000 or these communities didn't annex the many new subdivisions in the area.
-------------------------------------------------------
[1]National average rate: 9.7%
[2]OMB (Office of Management and Budget) is a US level entity that defines the criteria for an MSA and CSA. For a county to be part of an MSA it must have 25% commuter rate of its work force travel to an adjacent county (that is part of an MSA). A CSA requires a 15% worker commuter rate. The definitions are updated every ten years with the last finished in 2003 and another coming soon in 2013.
[3]The Nebraska Department of Labor website had shown the commuter rate increased from 23% to 26% by 2006.
The maps are taken as screencaptures from the .PDF file of each state's population change map. They tend to be a bit large to display properly on most people's computer screens, so I just resize them downward and re-host them on an image hosting site.
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