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Old 12-31-2011, 10:49 AM
 
Location: Atlanta, GA
425 posts, read 756,409 times
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HtownLove's numbers for Fort Worth are absurd. Fort Worth is not doubling it's population in the next 18 years - I don't care how much cow pasture they annex.
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Old 12-31-2011, 10:57 AM
 
Location: Washington D.C. By way of Texas
18,639 posts, read 27,073,493 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Dallascaper View Post
HtownLove's numbers for Fort Worth are absurd. Fort Worth is not doubling it's population in the next 18 years - I don't care how much cow pasture they annex.
I tend to agree with you. The reason why Htownlove is saying that is because Fort Worth will probably continue to annex area to it's West and Northwest. If the suburban model is still popular for the next 18 years, than it could happen. It won't change the fact that Dallas is still the more urban city (by far) and more maturely developed city of the region. Even with that said, I don't see Fort Worth even at 1 million by 2020 let alone 1.3 by 2030.
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Old 12-31-2011, 11:47 AM
 
Location: South Beach and DT Raleigh
11,810 posts, read 18,813,738 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by west336 View Post
^To your point, I think a lot of Northern, post-industrial cities will blossom in their urban cores over the next 20 years, and I expect to see their populations increase the most among most U.S. cities that don't annex new land.
While I agree that central cities will blossom in the next few decades, I am not convinced that it will return those cities to the sort of densities that drove many to their maximum populations in the middle of the 20th century. I have this opinion for a few reasons:
1. Family sizes are MUCH smaller than they used to be.
2. Americans' expectation for space is far more than it once was. Heck...just consider how much bigger closets are now and how many shoes the average person owns....
3. Coming out of the depression and WWII, many central cities had extended families living together in cramped quarters because they had to and couldn't afford "a better life". When the post war economy boomed (and the subsequent baby boom), Americans began dispersing and available housing began having fewer people per unit. Unless we completely melt down economically, we won't see this sort of "packed in" occupancy in our central cities.
4. While I expect that we'll see more families returning to the central cities, I don't think it will represent the majority of the growth. What I do expect is a combination of the following fueling most cities' renaissances: Young professionals both single and coupled, mid career childless singles and couples, empty nesters and retirees.
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Old 12-31-2011, 12:04 PM
 
Location: Up on the moon laughing down on you
18,509 posts, read 28,180,477 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by kidphilly View Post
I would think given the recent turn-around that Philadelphia could be closer to 1.8-1.9 million in 2030. Philly added about 50K since its bottom in 2005. Also large development is expected for North Broad and the waterfront over this time. (The waterfront alone could add another 90K).
I didn't really know much about that so I kept the numbers kinda constant.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Dallascaper View Post
HtownLove's numbers for Fort Worth are absurd. Fort Worth is not doubling it's population in the next 18 years - I don't care how much cow pasture they annex.
FW is already near 800K. It would be adding 500K not doubling. adding 200K a decade for FW is doable for FW if it continues the annexation pattern.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Spade View Post
I tend to agree with you. The reason why Htownlove is saying that is because Fort Worth will probably continue to annex area to it's West and Northwest. If the suburban model is still popular for the next 18 years, than it could happen. It won't change the fact that Dallas is still the more urban city (by far) and more maturely developed city of the region. Even with that said, I don't see Fort Worth even at 1 million by 2020 let alone 1.3 by 2030.
That is exactly what I am saying.

as for being less developed, I did mention that Dallas would always be ahead. but the thread is population numbers it didn't ask which would be more urban.
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Old 12-31-2011, 12:38 PM
 
Location: MIA/DC
1,190 posts, read 1,894,801 times
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Fort Worth rubs off as a gigantic suburb of Dallas, at least to me
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Old 12-31-2011, 01:24 PM
 
Location: Up on the moon laughing down on you
18,509 posts, read 28,180,477 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Slyman11 View Post
Fort Worth rubs off as a gigantic suburb of Dallas, at least to me
nah, two independent cities that were really dependent on each other for survival and attracting things to the area. The airport, business, sports, etc are more a factor of the regional pull than one city.

FW is by no means a suburb of Dallas, although the development pattern there is more suburban. FW is a sizeable economic engine itself. Both cities feeds off of each other.
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Old 12-31-2011, 01:42 PM
 
Location: Georgia native in McKinney, TX
7,412 posts, read 10,078,074 times
Reputation: 5917
Quote:
Originally Posted by Slyman11 View Post
Fort Worth rubs off as a gigantic suburb of Dallas, at least to me
Will add to Htowns excellent rebuttal.

You obviously haven't spent much time in Fort Worth. Great downtown, nice historic neighborhoods, historic stockyards, dense core. Don't know that it will eclipse Dallas in two decades, but 3 or 4, yes. Forth Worth has agressively annexed in the last two decades and is free to annex even more in every direction except to the east/northeast. Dallas is pretty hemmed in except on its southeastern extremity and that is NOT where the growth is going.
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Old 12-31-2011, 01:55 PM
 
Location: The City
22,331 posts, read 32,176,306 times
Reputation: 7739
Quote:
Originally Posted by HtownLove View Post
I didn't really know much about that so I kept the numbers kinda constant.


Here are just a few developments that are virtually all new housing among areas to be completely redevloped from current abandoned industrial space.

http://www.plancentraldelaware.com/w.../Overview1.pdf

PNY - Master Plan

http://www.drexel.edu/facilities/des...ster_plan.ashx

http://www.philaplanning.org/plans/mkteast/mkteastexecsum.pdf (broken link)
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Old 12-31-2011, 06:00 PM
 
Location: Up on the moon laughing down on you
18,509 posts, read 28,180,477 times
Reputation: 7598
Quote:
Originally Posted by kidphilly View Post
Here are just a few developments that are virtually all new housing among areas to be completely redevloped from current abandoned industrial space.

http://www.plancentraldelaware.com/w.../Overview1.pdf

PNY - Master Plan

http://www.drexel.edu/facilities/des...ster_plan.ashx

http://www.philaplanning.org/plans/mkteast/mkteastexecsum.pdf (broken link)
I don't go by simply looking at new housing potential. Houston's downtown, the city of Dallas and the city of ATL all had aggressive pushes to increase the inner city density and all saw only modest returns. Houston's downtown, The city of Dallas and the city of Atlanta, after building all these high density units only saw modest increases. Dallas only grew by 10K, ATL only grew by 20 someodd K.

If there was some economics and a growing trend behind it then I would be more apt to believe it.

I am not saying that the redevelopment won't be successful. Just don't want to start counting those chickens just yet.

I think the case for some cities is that while new residents are flooding into one area, other areas are getting depleted. That is most probably what happened in Dallas and ATL. While people flooded into the higher density housing, others left the inner city single family homes to live in single family homes in one of the up and coming suburbs.

Thanks for the info tho. If these are successful then they are sure to make a huge difference
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Old 12-31-2011, 06:08 PM
 
Location: The City
22,331 posts, read 32,176,306 times
Reputation: 7739
Quote:
Originally Posted by HtownLove View Post
I don't go by simply looking at new housing potential. Houston's downtown, the city of Dallas and the city of ATL all had aggressive pushes to increase the inner city density and all saw only modest returns. Houston's downtown, The city of Dallas and the city of Atlanta, after building all these high density units only saw modest increases. Dallas only grew by 10K, ATL only grew by 20 someodd K.

If there was some economics and a growing trend behind it then I would be more apt to believe it.

I am not saying that the redevelopment won't be successful. Just don't want to start counting those chickens just yet.

I think the case for some cities is that while new residents are flooding into one area, other areas are getting depleted. That is most probably what happened in Dallas and ATL. While people flooded into the higher density housing, others left the inner city single family homes to live in single family homes in one of the up and coming suburbs.

Philadelphias DT population grew by 18% in the last ten years, the next set of nabes grew by over 20% in the last ten years. All these developments are either in CC Philly or the next set of nabes with the exception of the Navy Yard. Another difference is they are bringing more modern residential choices to the city (non highrises of which 6 are currently under construction, with 3 more set to start in either Jan or Feb but have nothing to do with what I posted). These are all extensions of the current nabes and if you look are not hi-rises but expansions of neighborhoods from thriving areas in high demand.

For example.

[CENTER]

[/CENTER]


[CENTER]


From what is currently abaondoned warehouses and vacant lots; this particular development will include a new Light rail line that links with the CBD in 10 minutes.[/CENTER]
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