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Old 03-02-2012, 12:27 AM
 
Location: Austin, TX
3,668 posts, read 2,729,520 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by jbcmh81 View Post
I'm pretty sure that everyone has said that Texas is in the best shape of all the Sun Belt states. This thread is about what happens next, in the future, and how things will change. Most of the Midwest/Great Lakes states recovered from the recession faster than the US average as well.
Well come back here in 10 years and then let's discuss.

Let's look at some of the Sunbelt states and their future.

First, the ones with not so bright outlooks:

The only state that won't do as well as it did was Nevada, but with 35.1% growth last decade, no state could match it. However, in Nevada's case, I think the party is over. Las Vegas/Reno were based on a lifestyle that is simply no longer existent. People don't want to waste their money in a smokey casino anymore. However, considering Nevada was one of the least populated states when I was in grade school (it had 800,000 people then) and it now has 2.7 million, the casinos did help populate the region. I predict Nevada to grow at a much slower rate. It is a young state with many births so it will grow, but its heyday is over. Nevada's heyday was the 1990's. Las Vegas gained 85% that decade.

I also think Arizona has become passe' as well. In the 70's and 80's it was considered an awesome place to live, now the extreme politics and controversies are causing people to shy away. I see slow stagnant growth there.

California will grow because of birth rates exceeding death rates and immigration replacing people leaving the state. But it will not do very well economically for some time.

New Mexico won't really grow much because it doesn't have a lot to offer anyone other than a mild climate.

MS will struggle as it always has. Kentucky will have slow steady growth.

Louisiana will struggle with coastal erosion and other issues it's always been facing. It will still grow because of more births than deaths.

Now the states that will fare well:

Florida is simply becoming too crowded but it will still attract a lot of retirees and immigrants from the Caribbean and Latin America so I see growth there continuing.

Atlanta is Capital of the New South and Hartsfield has had the largest passenger counts in the world since 2005. African Americans from the country over are relocating to Atlanta. Atlanta will continue to grow and that will cause GA to continue to grow.

Nashville is one of two music hubs in the country (Austin being the other). TN will grow because of Nashville's growth.

Virginia will grow because of the Fed government expansion.

NC/SC will grow because they have nice beaches and mountains and attract retirees that have tired of Florida. Charlotte has the banking industry.

AL will have average growth. AR will grow because of the continual growth of Walmart as it keeps expanding into China (look at the growth rate of the counties in Northwest Arkansas). OK will grow because of fracking.

Then we have Texas. Houston will grow because it's the world's oil industry capital. This cannot be disputed. Dallas will continue to grow because of a thriving telcom corridor. San Antonio will continue to grow because of tourism and fracking on the west side of town. Austin will continue to grow because of its desirability, the arrival of an F1 racing track, the expansion of high tech industries, and it will grow to be a popular retirement destination because of its tremendous cultural amenities and a warm climate that appeals to retirees.

Out of all the Sunbelt states, Texas will fare the best.

Last edited by cBach; 03-02-2012 at 12:41 AM..
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Old 03-02-2012, 12:52 PM
 
Location: Mexico City, formerly Columbus, Ohio
7,695 posts, read 4,903,137 times
Reputation: 2628
Quote:
Originally Posted by cBach View Post
Well come back here in 10 years and then let's discuss.

Let's look at some of the Sunbelt states and their future.

First, the ones with not so bright outlooks:

The only state that won't do as well as it did was Nevada, but with 35.1% growth last decade, no state could match it. However, in Nevada's case, I think the party is over. Las Vegas/Reno were based on a lifestyle that is simply no longer existent. People don't want to waste their money in a smokey casino anymore. However, considering Nevada was one of the least populated states when I was in grade school (it had 800,000 people then) and it now has 2.7 million, the casinos did help populate the region. I predict Nevada to grow at a much slower rate. It is a young state with many births so it will grow, but its heyday is over. Nevada's heyday was the 1990's. Las Vegas gained 85% that decade.

I also think Arizona has become passe' as well. In the 70's and 80's it was considered an awesome place to live, now the extreme politics and controversies are causing people to shy away. I see slow stagnant growth there.

California will grow because of birth rates exceeding death rates and immigration replacing people leaving the state. But it will not do very well economically for some time.

New Mexico won't really grow much because it doesn't have a lot to offer anyone other than a mild climate.

MS will struggle as it always has. Kentucky will have slow steady growth.

Louisiana will struggle with coastal erosion and other issues it's always been facing. It will still grow because of more births than deaths.

I generally agree with these assessments, though for some, different reasons. California, especially, looks to stay in bad shape for the foreseeable future. It's losing people domestically, so the growth, as you say, is mostly due to international immigration and higher birth rates with them.


Now the states that will fare well:

Florida is simply becoming too crowded but it will still attract a lot of retirees and immigrants from the Caribbean and Latin America so I see growth there continuing.

Eh, I'm not convinced Florida will do all that well. Most of its economy is based on construction. You can only build so much for so long before you're going to have to diversify. That's why the state was hit so hard in recent years. Without the housing boom, what else did it really have? Tourism helps, but it definitely wasn't enough to keep it from being one of the worst performers during the recession and recovery. My brother and his wife actually had to move back to Ohio to find work because there was nothing going on, and they're far from being alone. Florida doesn't produce anything outside of nice weather in the winter. That's not something you can base an economy on, at least not indefinitely.

Atlanta is Capital of the New South and Hartsfield has had the largest passenger counts in the world since 2005. African Americans from the country over are relocating to Atlanta. Atlanta will continue to grow and that will cause GA to continue to grow.

Atlanta had very little growth in the city 2000-2010. It was almost all in the suburbs/exurbs. Again, like Florida and much of the Southeast, the strength of the economy was based on construction fueled by strong population growth. The recession has changed priorities. The suburbs are no longer seen as sustainable, and with energy prices like gasoline continuing to rise, it's becoming a lot more expensive. And like much of the Sun Belt, Atlanta doesn't have the urban infrastructure to support tons of growth in the city. I still see it growing, but I can bet you will see gradual changing rates in the coming 20 years.

Nashville is one of two music hubs in the country (Austin being the other). TN will grow because of Nashville's growth.

How many people are going to move because of a music scene? I don't see TN growing because of that. TN probably has a lower cost of living than Texas. That is what will fuel growth, though unemployment remains higher than the national average.

Virginia will grow because of the Fed government expansion.

Agreed, but then again so will Maryland, Delaware, and Southeast PA.

NC/SC will grow because they have nice beaches and mountains and attract retirees that have tired of Florida. Charlotte has the banking industry.

Charlotte has very high unemployment (both states have rates much higher than the national average), mostly due to the fact that the banking industry was hit so hard. Unemployment actually rose from November to December, something almost no other city had happen. And the growth problems mentioned above apply to NC/SC. Jobs are the main part of growth. No matter how nice the scenery is, people will move elsewhere for employment.

AL will have average growth. AR will grow because of the continual growth of Walmart as it keeps expanding into China (look at the growth rate of the counties in Northwest Arkansas). OK will grow because of fracking.

Yeah, I don't see explosive growth in any of these states, but steady, relatively slow growth, which is actually the best kind. Unemployment rates are near or a bit below the national average in Alabama and Arkansas, but well below in Oklahoma. I imagine Ohio is going to look very similar to Oklahoma in the coming years.

Then we have Texas. Houston will grow because it's the world's oil industry capital. This cannot be disputed. Dallas will continue to grow because of a thriving telcom corridor. San Antonio will continue to grow because of tourism and fracking on the west side of town. Austin will continue to grow because of its desirability, the arrival of an F1 racing track, the expansion of high tech industries, and it will grow to be a popular retirement destination because of its tremendous cultural amenities and a warm climate that appeals to retirees.

Out of all the Sunbelt states, Texas will fare the best.
A lot of the oil-based economy will depend on how long cheap oil lasts and how long before mainstream alternatives start appearing. Oil is not going to last forever, especially not the kind that is easily produced. Prices will go up, which is good for these companies, but so will costs to produce. And with higher prices, people use less, so it may end up being a wash at best. Other than that, Texas may face water issues if it has more summers like that past one, and there is evidence that more like it will happen in the coming years. And, like the rest of the Sun Belt, any economy relying, in part, on perpetual growth will probably come to an end. Not to say that growth will stop, I think growth will continue to be decent in Texas, but the crazy growth of the last 20 years is probably over. Priorities have changed, and so have the areas that people were moving to Texas from.

Last edited by jbcmh81; 03-02-2012 at 01:03 PM..
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Old 03-02-2012, 01:44 PM
 
Location: South Central Nebraska
350 posts, read 339,629 times
Reputation: 273
Quote:
Originally Posted by jbcmh81 View Post
Charlotte has very high unemployment (both states have rates much higher than the national average), mostly due to the fact that the banking industry was hit so hard. Unemployment actually rose from November to December, something almost no other city had happen. And the growth problems mentioned above apply to NC/SC. Jobs are the main part of growth. No matter how nice the scenery is, people will move elsewhere for employment.
.
Agreed. The banking industry is never going to come back full force to the way it was not unless there is another mortgage bubble or there is more growth overall in the economy. NC/SC had massive overbuilding and not enough jobs to employ the people they attracted down. Both states are beautiful but I left (SC) because there were no jobs. Unemployment in the region is still atrocious and has come down a little bit but I don't see a real solution in the region unless there is a resurge in manufacturing or more agriculture. Wealthy retirees live in areas with very high costs of living (the coastal areas in SC and NC are not cheap) and create a bunch of low wage service jobs. People who work in Hilton Head often commute several hours a day to work at minimum wage jobs. The crime and poverty in these outlying areas is just terrible. The Carolinas might be pretty but were devastated by the recession and have had long standing struggles since the 70s when NAFTA wiped out much of the furniture and textile industries that these states were heavily reliant on.
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Old 03-02-2012, 03:38 PM
 
Location: CT
1,215 posts, read 1,265,728 times
Reputation: 1966
Quote:
Originally Posted by cBach View Post
Now the states that will fare well:

Florida is simply becoming too crowded but it will still attract a lot of retirees and immigrants from the Caribbean and Latin America so I see growth there continuing.
How is an already stressed and overcrowded area becoming even more overcrowded faring well? Retirees aren't productive and growth isn't an industry. People really need to understand the difference between growth, healthy growth and that just growth on its own is no indicator of health or faring well. Afghanistan is among the top 10 fastest growing countries in the world, Somalia is in the top 20, good for them right.
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Old 03-03-2012, 12:46 PM
 
Location: Austin, TX
3,668 posts, read 2,729,520 times
Reputation: 1707
Quote:
Originally Posted by missRoxyhart View Post
How is an already stressed and overcrowded area becoming even more overcrowded faring well? Retirees aren't productive and growth isn't an industry. People really need to understand the difference between growth, healthy growth and that just growth on its own is no indicator of health or faring well. Afghanistan is among the top 10 fastest growing countries in the world, Somalia is in the top 20, good for them right.
One other factor that hasn't been considered is that early on, the north had a lot of immigration and thus many people to perform the low paying jobs so others could acquire wealth.

Now, many of those immigrants are moving to Texas and supply the low wage jobs necessary to sustain an economy. The hispanic growth in the Sunbelt is substantial is is part of the reason the sunbelt has boomed recently.

Just as Ellis Island served as an entry point into the US in the past, supplying NYC with a very cheap labor supply, now San Diego or Brownsville serves as entry points for cheap labor. There is simply less profit margins in the Northeast.
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Old 03-03-2012, 03:28 PM
 
Location: Indianapolis
3,900 posts, read 1,999,209 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by stlouisan View Post
If the Midwest ever does return to its glory days, my prediction is it's a long way away. Much of its former industries has shifted south. The South has oil, now competes heavily with the Midwest in terms of car manufacturing, is vibrant, new, and growing, and far less racially de facto segregated. The other reason I say it's a long way away is because many cities in the Midwest are still declining. Detroit and Cleveland in particular. That said, many Midwest cities did manage to escape the effects of the rust belt and some are vibrant and growing. Minneapolis, Chicago, Omaha, Kansas City, Columbus, and Indianapolis are all prime examples. St. Louis and Milwaukee are behind these but decline has either significantly slowed or has recently reversed.
Indianapolis is NOT in decline in anyway.
We just hosted Super Bowl 46 lol.
Fastest Growing City and Metro in the midwest.
So obiviously were doing something right.
Were the First Northern city to be on the Super Bowl rotation list.
Detroit had to build 2 stadiums to host 2 super bowls and Indy will probably host another Super Bowl around 2018 or 2020 in Lucas Oil again.
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Old 03-04-2012, 11:02 AM
 
Location: Mexico City, formerly Columbus, Ohio
7,695 posts, read 4,903,137 times
Reputation: 2628
Quote:
Originally Posted by cBach View Post
One other factor that hasn't been considered is that early on, the north had a lot of immigration and thus many people to perform the low paying jobs so others could acquire wealth.

Now, many of those immigrants are moving to Texas and supply the low wage jobs necessary to sustain an economy. The hispanic growth in the Sunbelt is substantial is is part of the reason the sunbelt has boomed recently.

Just as Ellis Island served as an entry point into the US in the past, supplying NYC with a very cheap labor supply, now San Diego or Brownsville serves as entry points for cheap labor. There is simply less profit margins in the Northeast.
Those immigrants are spreading out, though. In the 2010 census, the strongest growth in Hispanics was actually in Northern states. I know my home city of Columbus was in the top 10 nationally for growth in Hispanic and Asian populations since 2010.
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Old 03-04-2012, 11:58 AM
 
4,212 posts, read 3,015,188 times
Reputation: 1832
Quote:
Originally Posted by SCentralNEGuy View Post
Agreed. The banking industry is never going to come back full force to the way it was not unless there is another mortgage bubble or there is more growth overall in the economy. NC/SC had massive overbuilding and not enough jobs to employ the people they attracted down. Both states are beautiful but I left (SC) because there were no jobs. Unemployment in the region is still atrocious and has come down a little bit but I don't see a real solution in the region unless there is a resurge in manufacturing or more agriculture. Wealthy retirees live in areas with very high costs of living (the coastal areas in SC and NC are not cheap) and create a bunch of low wage service jobs. People who work in Hilton Head often commute several hours a day to work at minimum wage jobs. The crime and poverty in these outlying areas is just terrible. The Carolinas might be pretty but were devastated by the recession and have had long standing struggles since the 70s when NAFTA wiped out much of the furniture and textile industries that these states were heavily reliant on.

NAFTA wsa ratified in the 1990s.
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Old 03-04-2012, 02:11 PM
 
Location: Jefferson City 4 days a week, St. Louis 3 days a week
2,713 posts, read 2,190,755 times
Reputation: 895
Quote:
Originally Posted by Broadrippleguy View Post
Indianapolis is NOT in decline in anyway.
We just hosted Super Bowl 46 lol.
Fastest Growing City and Metro in the midwest.
So obiviously were doing something right.
Were the First Northern city to be on the Super Bowl rotation list.
Detroit had to build 2 stadiums to host 2 super bowls and Indy will probably host another Super Bowl around 2018 or 2020 in Lucas Oil again.
Where are you getting the idea that I said Indianapolis declined? Read the post again. I said the Indy was one of the cities that escaped the Rust Belt effect, implying that either it never declined or reversed the trend ages ago.
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Old 03-04-2012, 09:20 PM
 
7,238 posts, read 5,025,512 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ChikidII View Post
As we all know many of the Midwest cities have suffered a lot. However, does anyone think that in the near future they will boom? Cities like Milwaukee and St. Louis seem that they are starting to blossom yet again. Here is why I think:

1. COL: Cities on the coast are becoming so ridiculously expensive, yet the Midwest has been so affordable. Even the region's largest and most famous city is fairly affordable when compared to it's national and international peers.

2. Water: Specifically in the Great Lakes region there is a lot of water. While not a super serious problem now, water shortages will be no joke in the decades to come. You also have the Mississippi River and plenty of lakes in Minnesota and Wisconsin. The point I am trying to make is that the Midwest has a ton of freshwater.

3. Infrastructure: Since most of these Midwest cities were strong in their heyday, they still have a better infrastructure than most sunbelt cities. While some of their infrastructures have decayed, it's easier to repair it than start from scratch.

I am sure there are other reasons. Thoughts anyone?
Detroit will continue to lose its relevance and shrink (so will Michigan in general from an economic standpoint).

Chicago will continue to grow and remain the king of the Midwest.

Minneapolis and Milwaukee will continue to remain stagnant.

Cleveland, St. Louis will continue to shrink.

Toronto will play a much larger role in the health of the Great Lakes region.

As for COL, it correlates with quality of life. People are more than willing to pay more for a higher quality of life (see Boston, San Francisco, NYC, etc, all of which are growing by leaps and bounds).

As for water, I think by the time the south and west run out of water, we would have invented an expensive way for them to utilize the salt water in the Gulf of Mexico, Atlantic Ocean or Pacific Ocean (if not take the water from the Great Lakes and transport it to them).

As for infrastructure, in a society where we will more than willingly abandon old infrastructure for new infrastructure without a second thought (see Detroit), I don't think that will have much of an impact on anything growth-wise.
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