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You're right, it wont. DC is over 4 million away from the 10 million mark and the growth to an expensive area like this cant continue for more than 5-10 years. Dallas and Houston are the only ones that will make it.
First off, population matters not. Freeway counts, skyscraper counts, that sort of thing - if that's all you have to hang your hat on, then frankly you got nothing going on.
BUT: I'd go for Miami - they are all international cities, to varying degrees, but Miami is very, very established as the go-to bridge city (between Latin America, the US, and the Caribbean) for all things financial, and to some degree in business and real estate for all of Latin America and the Caribbean, parts of which are developing quite nicely into middle-class countries. Apart from NYC and LA, no one else comes close, and no one will for quite some time. Add the tourist appeal from other places (Western Europe in particular) and it speaks for itself. The other cities will outgrow it, but frankly Geneva is one of the world's global cities, and it has a metro of well under a million people, so size IS NOT everything. And if your city thinks otherwise, your city is an overgrown truck stop.
Houston, and then Atlanta would be my 2nd or 3rd picks. Houston may have the edge due to its' energy biz advantage, Atlanta may have the edge due to airport and location: center of the Southeast, and it's at the tail end of the Boston-to-Atlanta string of million-plus metros.
Dallas is more of a longshot.
Charlotte's not in the convo yet, though it's financial ascendancy and burgeoning energy sector are nothing to sniff at. Not on the global radar yet, and not for a while, but as a business city, it's loaded with people who think on an enormous scale, and (at the same time) the Great Recession shakeout didn't produce an exodus of unhappy ex-banksters exiting town; it did however produce a number of financial start-ups which are small, and new, but number into the lower hundreds. This, in spite of an uptick in unemployment numbers. This flurry of start-up activity has already been commented upon in a few national media outlets, which is why Charlotte isn't going to remain provincial forever, and why you see it beginning to distinguish itself from - say - Atlanta.
NYC 23,369,989
LA 19,922,636
Chicago 10,124,061
DC 10,024,091
The bay 8,419,090 (the bay)/9,213,476 (Stockton incl.)/9,768,619 (Stockton and Modesto incl.)
Dallas 8,291,977
Boston 7,979,070
Houston 7,452,073
Philadelphia 6,819,723
Miami 6,619,535
Atlanta 6,555,601
Detroit 5,100,000
Seattle 4,899,682
Phoenix 4,896,377
Minneapolis 4,012,462
NYC and LA are already megacities and its obvious that Chicago and DC are next in line then the Bay. The final members will be Dallas and Houston no doubt.
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