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Old 08-13-2012, 08:19 PM
 
199 posts, read 373,242 times
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Vegas metro population projections are based on old data, having to do with the city's rise in the late 20th century. Those days are over, period. They will never come again.

I also don't think Phoenix will grow as fast as it used to. But Phoenix will outperform Vegas. I agree that Texas cities will grow fastest in terms of absolute numbers of people added. TN, NC, SC metros will also boom. Atlanta growth will fall off due to the brutal traffic. FL growth will slow down. DC will do well in terms of absolute numbers. Inland Empire in CA won't grow as fast as it did before, but will still add a lot in terms of absolute numbers. The Midwest, Northeast, and Northwest won't be on the list.

Last edited by Locutus of Board; 08-13-2012 at 08:30 PM..
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Old 08-13-2012, 08:28 PM
 
199 posts, read 373,242 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ohazco View Post
Bingo. Especially water. To think we know what Phoenix will look like in 30 years is crazy, lest we not forget, Detroit metro was the Phoenix metro of 50 years ago... despite white flight issues, bet noone saw current day Detroit metro in the near future.
Not necessarily. Phoenix outskirts are surrounded by lush green farms that eat up huge amounts of water. When those farms are replaced with homes, water usage goes down. Phoenix is also big on desert style landscaping and such, particularly in the newer developments, as compared to Vegas where everyone wants a green lawn like they had back in the Midwest.

There's reasons to believe that Phoenix won't grow as fast as it used to, but I don't think water is one of them.
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Old 08-15-2012, 12:50 PM
 
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Just curious...because US deaths will outweigh US births (most population growth coming from immigration), does this mean that some US cities will literally dry up when all these millions of people move to basically the 10 largest cities in the US?
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Old 08-15-2012, 01:26 PM
 
Location: Midwest
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I have a hard time finding Atlanta and the western cities continuing their growth through 2042. Water is eventually going to become an issue in Texas. It is already an issue with Atlanta, the Inland Empire, and the desert towns.
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Old 08-15-2012, 01:57 PM
 
Location: Up on the moon laughing down on you
18,509 posts, read 28,194,197 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by dude1984 View Post
I have a hard time finding Atlanta and the western cities continuing their growth through 2042. Water is eventually going to become an issue in Texas. It is already an issue with Atlanta, the Inland Empire, and the desert towns.
what makes you think Water will be an issue for entire states?

That is kinda overreaching isn't it
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Old 08-15-2012, 03:33 PM
 
Location: Minneapolis (St. Louis Park)
5,991 posts, read 8,326,666 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by HtownLove View Post
what makes you think Water will be an issue for entire states?

That is kinda overreaching isn't it
Because some states (entire ones) are arrid (not necessarily TX).
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Old 08-15-2012, 03:53 PM
 
Location: Up on the moon laughing down on you
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Min-Chi-Cbus View Post
Because some states (entire ones) are arrid (not necessarily TX).
I am specifically talking about Texas.

Why would he say as State the size of the country of Germany or France would have water problems?
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Old 08-15-2012, 04:04 PM
 
Location: Austin, Texas
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Quote:
Originally Posted by HtownLove View Post
I am specifically talking about Texas.

Why would he say as State the size of the country of Germany or France would have water problems?
It's because of the constant exeptional droughts that plague most of the state. It puts water as a central problem for Texas in the future.
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Old 08-15-2012, 07:21 PM
 
Location: Up on the moon laughing down on you
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Austinite101 View Post
It's because of the constant exeptional droughts that plague most of the state. It puts water as a central problem for Texas in the future.
but not all the state.

He cannot say the Texas cities will stop growing because of water. Not all cities were put on water restrictions last year. SE Texas has been having one of the wettest years on record.

Again Texas is too big to lump all the cities in one boat.
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Old 08-15-2012, 07:27 PM
 
Location: Carrboro and Concord, NC
964 posts, read 2,048,808 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by jbcmh81 View Post
Steady, high unemployment (10%), steady/rising number of unemployed, etc. An opinion would mean the facts don't necessarily support the statement, but in this case they do.
True, but keep in mind that the fallout of the financial meltdown didn't produce hundreds of ex-bank execs leaving town. While it did shove unemployment numbers upwards, it also has lead to a number of small, start-up financial services spin offs that currently number in the lower hundreds. Not all start-ups achieve liftoff, but those that do tend to be nimble and quick in job creation, and they tend to attract smart young professionals. Charlotte has issues for certain, but it's not busted by a long shot.

As for Raleigh-Durham-Chapel Hill - it's economics are more stereotypically progressive than Charlotte: academics, tech, biotech and general r&d are huge (along with government), and it has the lowest unemployment numbers in the state. It's dragging behind on transportation planning however - the 4 primary cities (Raleigh, Durham, Cary, and Chapel Hill) can't seem to get on the same page with planning, and the NIMBYism when it comes to higher density and other kinds of sprawl-limiting planning (save for Chapel Hill's urban growth boundary) is the Achilles heel of the area.

The rest of NC isn't faring nearly as well - there are several other metros in the state that are pretty moribund. Fayettenam is military, and there's nothing else happening there. Asheville is pretty anti-growth, which might turn out to be a not so bad thing. Hickory is NC's very own Flint - a dead industrial town; with Kinston and Rocky Mount barely any better.

Wilmington and Greenville have grown very rapidly however - they would be the other two to watch in NC. Greenville has leapt past several other midsized NC cities in size, and will likely crack 100,000 before the next census. Wilmington is a retirement mecca, a tourist town, a midsized port, and the film industry there has become very sizable indeed - someone from Hollywood is shooting something there pretty much 52 weeks a year now, and the city has an infrastructure (both physical and in manpower) to handle pretty much any demand on that front.
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