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Old 10-02-2012, 05:34 PM
 
1,017 posts, read 1,165,871 times
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If you live in one of these places, you'll be seeing a whole lot of killing going on.

(source - FBI — Table 4 )



The cities and there 2011 murder rates


1. New Orleans, LA 57.6
New Orleans murder studies show rate is 10 times national average | NOLA.com


2. Flint, MI 50.8
http://www.nytimes.com/2011/04/17/ma...re-t.html?_r=0


3. Detroit, MI 48.2
Detroit Murders Up, Overall Violent Crime Down


4. St Louis, MO 35.3
SLMPD releases unofficial murder stats for 2011 | Video | ksdk.com


5. Newark, NJ 33.8
In wake of police layoffs, Newark murder rate soars as violent crime increases | NJ.com


6. Baltimore, MD 31.3
Baltimore Crime Beat: FBI data: Baltimore retains top-5 murder rate - Baltimore crime news: Police, courts and police stories in the city and central Maryland - baltimoresun.com


7. Jackson, MS 29.9
Jackson murder rate declines - WLBT.com - Jackson, MS


8. Baton Rouge, LA 27.6
BR murder rate ranks No. 7 in US - WAFB 9 News Baton Rouge, Louisiana News, Weather, Sports


9. Oakland, CA 26.3
Oakland Homicides Spike In Rough 2011


10. New Haven, CT 26.2
THE LIST: 2011 homicide victims in New Haven- The New Haven Register - Serving New Haven, Connecticut
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Old 10-02-2012, 05:37 PM
 
Location: Brooklyn, NY $$$
6,838 posts, read 6,851,925 times
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It's crazy how my ex girl moved to new haven from NYC ,and she tells me it's calm lol. I told her new haven has a high murder rate, she doesn't beleive me.
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Old 10-02-2012, 05:38 PM
 
Location: Brooklyn, NY $$$
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If its 2012 do these stats even count any more?
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Old 10-02-2012, 06:43 PM
 
Location: Victoria TX
38,753 posts, read 38,334,632 times
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I lovel it when people take murder rates so seriously, as if they mean anything at all.

Take Monroe, Louisiana, for example. Over the past ten years, the number of statistically reported murders averaged 6 per year. But in one year there was one, and in another year there were 12. What does the 2011 statistic tell us?

First of all, murder is such a rare event in human society, that the statistics are highly variable. Second, murders are not always recognized as what they are. An unknown number of murders are listed as suicides, accidental, natural causes, disappearances, and it is pointless to even try to guess what proportion are misclassified, because there could never be a control number of "unrecognized murders". Third, exactly what goes into the statistical base as a murder? Do you count negligent or vehicular homicide as a murder? Do you count only city limits, or the suburbs, too? Do you count attempted murder in which the victim doesn't die? If a guy shoots his six kids and then himself, do you count that as one murder, or six?

If you are going to use statistics to draw any conclusions about anything, you first have to make sure you understand what the statistics are counting and what the parameters are for including data in your base, and the margin for error, and the potential impact of outliers. and the uniformity of definitions used in different samples..

Finally, so what? If the murder rate is 100 per million on one city and 200 per mill8ion in another, even assuming that the metric has any validity in the first place, and since a majority of all known murder victims are personally known to their assailants, the simple fact is that if you are visiting the area, or even if you live there, your risk of being murdered is virtually zero (zero-point-zero-zero-something) in both cities, even if you hang out with murderers, so get a life.

Last edited by jtur88; 10-02-2012 at 06:51 PM..
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Old 10-02-2012, 11:45 PM
 
Location: Lafayette, Louisiana
303 posts, read 216,266 times
Reputation: 375
Quote:
Originally Posted by jtur88 View Post
I lovel it when people take murder rates so seriously, as if they mean anything at all.

Take Monroe, Louisiana, for example. Over the past ten years, the number of statistically reported murders averaged 6 per year. But in one year there was one, and in another year there were 12. What does the 2011 statistic tell us?

First of all, murder is such a rare event in human society, that the statistics are highly variable. Second, murders are not always recognized as what they are. An unknown number of murders are listed as suicides, accidental, natural causes, disappearances, and it is pointless to even try to guess what proportion are misclassified, because there could never be a control number of "unrecognized murders". Third, exactly what goes into the statistical base as a murder? Do you count negligent or vehicular homicide as a murder? Do you count only city limits, or the suburbs, too? Do you count attempted murder in which the victim doesn't die? If a guy shoots his six kids and then himself, do you count that as one murder, or six?

If you are going to use statistics to draw any conclusions about anything, you first have to make sure you understand what the statistics are counting and what the parameters are for including data in your base, and the margin for error, and the potential impact of outliers. and the uniformity of definitions used in different samples..

Finally, so what? If the murder rate is 100 per million on one city and 200 per mill8ion in another, even assuming that the metric has any validity in the first place, and since a majority of all known murder victims are personally known to their assailants, the simple fact is that if you are visiting the area, or even if you live there, your risk of being murdered is virtually zero (zero-point-zero-zero-something) in both cities, even if you hang out with murderers, so get a life.
The annual homicide rates for large cities are fairly constant. New Orleans, for instance, had the highest homicide rate of any city in America with a population higher than 100,000 for all years between 2000 and 2011 except 2005. The wild fluctuations that can occur in homicide rates year-to-year in a small city like Monroe is probably why such list only include cities with a population of 100,000 or greater.

Secondly, although murder rates cannot be absolutely accurate, I don't think the margin of error is as great as you imply. The probability of a perfect crime (Unidentifiable murder) is extremely slim. With modern tools, techniques, and accumulated knowledge even Barney Fife could readily identify a murder scene masquerading as a suicide/accident.

To answer your questions; Do you count negligent or vehicular homicide as a murder? NO Do you count only city limits, or the suburbs, too? The reporting agency's jurisdiction Do you count attempted murder in which the victim doesn't die? NO If a guy shoots his six kids and then himself, do you count that as one murder, or six? SIX

Here's the FBI's definition of murder;

Quote:
The FBI’s Uniform Crime Reporting (UCR) Program defines murder and nonnegligent manslaughter as the willful (nonnegligent) killing of one human being by another. The classification of this offense is based solely on police investigation as opposed to the determination of a court, medical examiner, coroner, jury, or other judicial body. The UCR Program does not include the following situations in this offense classification: deaths caused by negligence, suicide, or accident; justifiable homicides; and attempts to murder or assaults to murder, which are scored as aggravated assaults.
Here's how the FBI determines a city's population;

Quote:
For the 2011 population estimates used in this table, the FBI computed individual rates of growth from one year to the next for every city/town and county using 2000 decennial population counts and 2001 through 2010 population estimates from the U.S. Census Bureau. Each agency’s rates of growth were averaged; that average was then applied and added to its 2010 Census population estimate to derive the agency’s 2011 population estimate.
Concerning "uniformity of definitions";

Quote:
When the FBI determines that an agency’s data collection methodology does not comply with national UCR guidelines, the figure(s) for that agency’s offense(s) will not be included in the table, and the discrepancy will be explained in a footnote.
Homicide rates generally correlate with the overall prevalence of crime. Whereas all other crime statistics are notoriously unreliable, homicide rates are much more rigid and dificult to manipulate and since safety and health are a human being's number one priority people will err on the side of safety, especially if family is involved, even though the chances of being murdered are virtually nil. Having a murder rate ten times higher than the national average can tip the scales heavily against a move to a city like New Orleans.
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Old 10-02-2012, 11:47 PM
 
Location: Philadelphia,New Jersey, NYC!
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pistol wavin new haven
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Old 10-03-2012, 01:28 AM
 
Location: Victoria TX
38,753 posts, read 38,334,632 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by 5trillion View Post
The probability of a perfect crime (Unidentifiable murder) is extremely slim.
You have no way of knowing that. There is absolutely zero available data. If the authorities knew how many murders were not recognized as murders, they are, ipso facto, recognized as murders, and investigated and prosecuted accordingly. As far as official statistics are concerned, the number of murders that are not investigated as murders is, by definition, zero.

There are currently-active missing person files on more than 100,000 people, which is equal to all the known homicides in the past six years. Not counting jufeniles, therea re 50,000 missint report of adults every year. There is no way to guess whether the number of those who have been murdered is one or 100,000 or anywhere in between. And that doesn't count people who just disappeared and nobody missed them. There are 40,000 sets of human remains in police evidence rooms that haven't even been identified yet. http://www.nij.gov/journals/256/missing-persons.html

The number of Americans who die every year of prescription drug overdoses is larger than the number of murders. You have no way of knowing how many of those involve complicity by another party, such as a family member or caregiver. And that doesn't even count very old and infirm people who are simply listed as death of old age, without any autopsy or criminal suspicion. Nor does it count recreational drug use deaths as a convenient way to get rid of an undesirable dude who must have OD'ed, man.

It is entirely possible that when a city has a high rate of murders, the police get swamped by the case load, and the underworld (where most murders take place) doesn't even need to hide them anymore because of the lowered risk of apprehension, so the visible rate keeps going up, which could account for the consistency you described. Statistically, it is known that about 45% of all known homicides are never cleared by arrest, so in cities with a low clearance rate, the underworld can pretty much murder at will. In one recent year, it was reported that San Francisco had cleared less than 10% of murders one year after the crime.

Last edited by jtur88; 10-03-2012 at 02:05 AM..
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Old 10-03-2012, 09:08 AM
 
Location: Zurich, Switzerland
25,075 posts, read 32,487,487 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by jacobwilliam77 View Post
If you live in one of these places, you'll be seeing a whole lot of killing going on.

Not necessarily.

I live in Oakland and have never seen a murder.

In fact, lots of people who could live anywhere choose to live in many of these cities because of their desirability.

Households Earning $200,000+, 2011 Census Bureau
Oakland, CA 10,016
New Orleans, LA 5,155
Baltimore, MD 5,097
St Louis, MO 1,872
Baton Rouge, LA 1,329
Detroit, MI 1,325
New Haven, CT 1,285
Jackson, MS 1,152
Newark, NJ 872
Flint, MI 138
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Old 10-03-2012, 10:08 AM
 
Location: a swanky suburb in my fancy pants
3,391 posts, read 4,635,883 times
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Murder rates shouldn't be taken seriously until you study the victims. So much of this is thug murdering thug and involved with the drug trade and gangs. When one gang banger shoots another gang banger is that really a murder and do you care?
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Old 10-03-2012, 10:39 AM
 
Location: New York NY
2,481 posts, read 2,344,165 times
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It really is useless to worry about these murder rates 99% of the time because, as I never tire of saying, no one lives in a city. They live in a NEIGHBORHOOD in a city, and most of the mayhem tends to be concentrated in the worst neighborhoods. Many cities have lots of bad neighborhoods, but virtually none have absolutely zero GOOD neighborhoods, i.e. ones that are stable, middle-class, and low-crime. And people living in those areas are unlikely to encounter random deadly violence.

Despite those high murder rates, there are certainly calm, pleasant places to live in Oakland, Baltimore, New Haven, Detroit, Newark, and New Orleans (The cities on that list I've either lived in or spent time in). Those cities may have drawbacks in terms of other things (usually the public schools and quality of local retailing), but live in the right neighborhood and there is little chance of being a crime victim.
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