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Old 01-31-2013, 09:42 AM
 
Location: Up on the moon laughing down on you
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Mutiny77 View Post
I'm guessing you're just not familiar with the numbers or are unfamiliar with DFW's story. Since DFW has ranked second in Black migration for the past two decades and is just as economically strong as Houston, I don't see what might cause it to jump ahead of DFW. Just seems a bit arbitrary is all.

I think it's pretty much a non-starter anyway. Atlanta's going through tough times right now, but not THAT tough. The gap between Atlanta and next couple cities is pretty big and I don't see Atlanta ceding that much ground, especially with all of its built-in Black cultural assets, institutions, and political structure.
What numbers are you talking about? dFW was not that far ahead if Houston last decade. And Southernboy did give reasons why he thinks so.

To add to his reasons I would add that Houston was ranked high for new small business start ups by blacks, it had had a stronger job growth and is greatly pursuing retaining more students who graduate from its universities.

Bridging a 2000 a year gap is no huge feat
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Old 01-31-2013, 11:42 AM
 
Location: Willowbend/Houston
13,403 posts, read 21,192,209 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by HtownLove View Post
What numbers are you talking about? dFW was not that far ahead if Houston last decade. And Southernboy did give reasons why he thinks so.

To add to his reasons I would add that Houston was ranked high for new small business start ups by blacks, it had had a stronger job growth and is greatly pursuing retaining more students who graduate from its universities.

Bridging a 2000 a year gap is no huge feat
I dont see what the big deal is. DFW did gain the most African American residents in that time period after Atlanta, but its not like the gap was drastic. In terms of back growth, you have Atlanta at the top tier and DFW, Houston, Charlotte, and DC in the tier below. All the cities in question are excellent choices for African-Americans.

But this whole "I have a hunch" or whatever you want to call it is crap too. Houston may very well outgrow Atlanta in Black growth this decade, who knows? We wont know and not one person can predict it.
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Old 01-31-2013, 02:09 PM
 
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Quote:
Originally Posted by HtownLove View Post
What numbers are you talking about? dFW was not that far ahead if Houston last decade. And Southernboy did give reasons why he thinks so.
He later edited his post. Initially he didn't.

Quote:
To add to his reasons I would add that Houston was ranked high for new small business start ups by blacks, it had had a stronger job growth and is greatly pursuing retaining more students who graduate from its universities.

Bridging a 2000 a year gap is no huge feat
It wouldn't, but initially there were no solid reasons given. But as I stated, even if Houston were to overtake DFW, I don't see it being by much at all and I still don't see any other city overtaking Atlanta.
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Old 01-31-2013, 02:47 PM
 
Location: Up on the moon laughing down on you
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Quote:
Originally Posted by justme02 View Post
I dont see what the big deal is.
i dont see tge big deal either, but the way he was making it sound you woukd swear that Dfw got 500000 new blacks and Houston got like 75k or something.

I just wanted to point out that they both got a hell of a lot so one coming out over the other next census would not take much effort.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Mutiny77 View Post
He later edited his post. Initially he didn't.



It wouldn't, but initially there were no solid reasons given. But as I stated, even if Houston were to overtake DFW, I don't see it being by much at all and I still don't see any other city overtaking Atlanta.
He does not need solid reasons, even if its just his hunch he is picking the city right below Dallas. I coukd understand you thinjibg him nutty if he thought Fargo was going to gain more, but dont see the whole issue about number two and three switching places.

Ten years ago atlanta and dfw were one and two in terms of total growth. I cant remember if Houston was even third. I know tgat Riverside and Phoenix were up there, but by the end of the Decade Houston had passed all of them to become number one. Again houston and Dfw were off by 20k in this field too. Being so close i would not waste my time arguing with someone who says DFW will be the greatest total gainer this decade. Now if someone says that St louis, or new orleans, or even las vegas will be the biggest gainer, then i would object.
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Old 01-31-2013, 03:21 PM
 
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Quote:
Originally Posted by HtownLove View Post
He does not need solid reasons, even if its just his hunch he is picking the city right below Dallas. I coukd understand you thinjibg him nutty if he thought Fargo was going to gain more, but dont see the whole issue about number two and three switching places.
Why do you see it as so unreasonable that someone would for a few reasons as to why they think #3 would leap ahead of #2, which has been #2 for the past two decades? It was just a simple question and he did eventually provide a reason or two. This is a discussion board and such a line of questioning isn't beyond the pale. He could have enlightened me concerning a few trends I was unaware of.

Quote:
Ten years ago atlanta and dfw were one and two in terms of total growth. I cant remember if Houston was even third. I know tgat Riverside and Phoenix were up there, but by the end of the Decade Houston had passed all of them to become number one. Again houston and Dfw were off by 20k in this field too. Being so close i would not waste my time arguing with someone who says DFW will be the greatest total gainer this decade. Now if someone says that St louis, or new orleans, or even las vegas will be the biggest gainer, then i would object.
Yes, but obviously conditions changed rather drastically from 2000-2010. Barring that, I only wanted to see what his reasons were for stating such. But like I said, it's all a non-starter anyway as #1 is so far ahead, attracting twice as many Black migrants as #2. It would be a conversation worthy of further explanation is #2 was nipping on #1's heels, but that's FAR from the case.
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Old 01-31-2013, 03:50 PM
 
Location: Up on the moon laughing down on you
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I bet all three will still be in the top three but i highly doubt that Atl will gain anywhere near as much as it did last decade. I will put money diwn that Atl wont have twice as many as the number 2 city.

Its still way too early in the decade. We say what happened with predictions made early last decade, but I am confident in saying that the last two decades were beyond exceptional for Atlanta and as such hard to maintain.

I dunno, but there is 7 years left. NY, DC, Houston, DFW could pull an upset. A good job market for the next four or five years could do it.
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Old 01-31-2013, 04:07 PM
 
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Quote:
Originally Posted by HtownLove View Post
I bet all three will still be in the top three but i highly doubt that Atl will gain anywhere near as much as it did last decade. I will put money diwn that Atl wont have twice as many as the number 2 city.
That's reasonable. I still say there will be a sizable gap between it and #2--at least 150K persons, barring another banking/housing crisis.

Quote:
Its still way too early in the decade. We say what happened with predictions made early last decade, but I am confident in saying that the last two decades were beyond exceptional for Atlanta and as such hard to maintain.
It was the natural acceleration of a trend that began in the 70's, but just like with regular growth, the biggest cities can't keep adding a million+ people every decade--at least in terms of domestic migration.

Quote:
I dunno, but there is 7 years left. NY, DC, Houston, DFW could pull an upset. A good job market for the next four or five years could do it.
I don't see any of those other cities having an exceptional job market within the next four or five years while Atlanta's remains tepid. A surprise (for #2)? Perhaps. An upset? Highly unlikely. And if an upset were to occur, I don't see it happening with NYC. DC would probably be my choice due to the composition of its economy (government--the sector that disproportionately employs many Blacks and has for a long time) and the strong foundation it already has with regard to Black culture.
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Old 01-31-2013, 04:25 PM
 
Location: Up on the moon laughing down on you
18,509 posts, read 28,163,980 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Mutiny77 View Post
That's reasonable. I still say there will be a sizable gap between it and #2--at least 150K persons, barring another banking/housing crisis.
To be honest i dont see Atl getting more than 50-75k more than number two.
I see Atl gaining 300-350k but not much more

I do see Houston, DFW, DC gaining 300K or more.

There seems to be a lot of exchange between the major southern metros. Maby if my black friends have moved to Atl in the last few years, and in the same period I have met
Just as many new friends who moved hear from Atl.
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Old 01-31-2013, 04:42 PM
 
29,916 posts, read 27,355,630 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by HtownLove View Post
To be honest i dont see Atl getting more than 50-75k more than number two.
I see Atl gaining 300-350k but not much more

I do see Houston, DFW, DC gaining 300K or more.
I see Atlanta getting at least 400K. I could see those three gaining about that much. I'll modify my prediction to have Atlanta up by 100-150K.

Quote:
There seems to be a lot of exchange between the major southern metros. Maby if my black friends have moved to Atl in the last few years, and in the same period I have met
Just as many new friends who moved hear from Atl.
Indeed. From here, most of my peers have headed to DC.
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Old 01-31-2013, 05:22 PM
 
Location: Up on the moon laughing down on you
18,509 posts, read 28,163,980 times
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400k is kinda optimistic isnt it? Based on figures from that link you gave in post 40, that was what Atl gained last decade, i doubt they will do much better than half of that this decade.

Also based on thie link it looks like Houston joined the 1million club right after the census and Dallas should be joining it soon.

By the end of the decade their black population could be on par with philadelphias.

I am always shocked by LA. 12m people and only 800k blacks
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