City-Data Forum Will the largest cities in each state ever be surpassed by another city in the state? (versus, moving to)
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05-09-2013, 08:21 PM
 Location: Greenville, SC 282 posts, read 358,435 times Reputation: 43

Quote:
 Originally Posted by Mutiny77 Projections as far out as 2080 are extremely unreliable. And how are you calculating them anyway?
Yeah they are unreliable, but they kind of give a general estimate. To calculate them, I just took the year growth from 2010-2011 and multiplied it by 10 to get 2010-2020 and then added the number of population increase from 2010-2020 after that. For example, Greenville grew by about 3200 people from 2010-2011 so I multiplied that by 10 and got about 32,000 from 2010-2020. Then I added 32,000 to the 2020 number and so on.

05-09-2013, 08:26 PM
 29,891 posts, read 27,333,728 times Reputation: 18435
Quote:
 Originally Posted by kgartm1185 Yeah they are unreliable, but they kind of give a general estimate. To calculate them, I just took the year growth from 2010-2011 and multiplied it by 10 to get 2010-2020 and then added the number of population increase from 2010-2020 after that. For example, Greenville grew by about 3200 people from 2010-2011 so I multiplied that by 10 and got about 32,000 from 2010-2020. Then I added 32,000 to the 2020 number and so on.
No offense, but that's a rather horrible way to calculate population projections. Even though it's also unreliable, you'd be better off using the percentage of growth during the previous decade as the metric of choice. That's what most standard projections use.

05-09-2013, 08:56 PM
 Location: Greenville, SC 282 posts, read 358,435 times Reputation: 43
Quote:
 Originally Posted by Mutiny77 No offense, but that's a rather horrible way to calculate population projections. Even though it's also unreliable, you'd be better off using the percentage of growth during the previous decade as the metric of choice. That's what most standard projections use.
Ok, but I still think Greenville is growing faster than Columbia at least.

05-10-2013, 12:45 AM
 Location: Jackson, MS 29 posts, read 43,502 times Reputation: 68
Louisiana (my homestate): Baton Rouge might surpass New Orleans (my hometown). The problem with Nola is that it is landlocked between a river and a lake.

Mississippi (I got to college in Jackson, MS): I don't see any other cities surpassing Jackson in the near future even though Jackson has experienced tremendous loss since the whole civil rights movement, it was only "white flight" which caused its suburbs to grow. However, Jackson is starting to see growth as well as revitalization of the downtown area such as luxury condos for young professionals. So I don't see any city surpassing Jackson.

05-10-2013, 03:36 AM
 Location: Somewhere extremely awesome 3,024 posts, read 2,461,585 times Reputation: 2312
Quote:
 Originally Posted by westboundrambler At the rate Detroits going down and the rate Grand Rapids is slowly going up I wouldn't be surprised if Grand Rapids was bigger in 60-80 years.
As rough as Detroit is having it, I think this is highly unlikely. Detroit is still almost 4 times larger than Grand Rapids right now.

05-10-2013, 02:05 PM
 29,891 posts, read 27,333,728 times Reputation: 18435
Quote:
 Originally Posted by kgartm1185 Ok, but I still think Greenville is growing faster than Columbia at least.
But it's not.

05-10-2013, 02:29 PM
 Location: Up on the moon laughing down on you 18,509 posts, read 28,157,104 times Reputation: 7598
If Houston is to be surpassed it would be by San Antonio.

They would need to basically annex their entire metro but there are no sizeable cities around in the metro for competition.

Other than that I don't see any other city in Texas coming close.
Dallas is land locked and Fw, Austin and El Paso are too far behind

05-10-2013, 03:09 PM
 9,382 posts, read 9,532,267 times Reputation: 5786
Tennessee is the most likely Nashville is growing much faster than Memphis.
Then there are states like New Hampshire where the top 2 cities are close but the larger one is growing faster. So Nahua will never surpass Manchester. Lousiana is like this as well.
Texas, Massachusetts, Michigan, Rhode Island, New York, Illinois, California, and Maryland just have insurmountable margins

05-10-2013, 04:38 PM
 Location: Greenville, SC 282 posts, read 358,435 times Reputation: 43
Quote:
 Originally Posted by Mutiny77 But it's not.
Yes it is. Greenville gained 1,970 people from 2010 to 2011 and Columbia gained 1,319 people. Greenville MSA gained 18,000 people from 2010 to 2011 and Columbia gained 17,000. Greenville's urban population gained 130,000 people from 2000 to 2010 and Columbia gained 95,000 people. Greenville CSA gained 22,000 people from 2010 to 2011 and Columbia CSA gained 10,000 people.

Last edited by kgartm1185; 05-10-2013 at 04:49 PM..

05-10-2013, 04:45 PM
 29,891 posts, read 27,333,728 times Reputation: 18435
Quote:
 Originally Posted by kgartm1185 Yes it is. Greenville gained 1,970 people from 2010 to 2011 and Columbia gained 1,319 people. Greenville MSA gained 18,000 people from 2010 to 2011 and Columbia gained 17,000. Greenville's urban population gained 130,000 people from 2000 to 2010 and Columbia gained 95,000 people.
I use the decennial figures to gauge growth because they are official. The yearly estimates can be waaaayyy off and often are.

Going by city and metro population, Columbia grew faster in the previous decade. Greenville's UA did grow by more though.
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