U.S. CitiesCity-Data Forum Index
Go Back   City-Data Forum > U.S. Forums > General U.S.
 [Register]
Please register to participate in our discussions with 2 million other members - it's free and quick! Some forums can only be seen by registered members. After you create your account, you'll be able to customize options and access all our 15,000 new posts/day with fewer ads.
View detailed profile (Advanced) or search
site with Google Custom Search

Search Forums  (Advanced)
Reply Start New Thread
 
Old 05-09-2013, 08:21 PM
 
Location: Greenville, SC
282 posts, read 358,435 times
Reputation: 43

Advertisements

Quote:
Originally Posted by Mutiny77 View Post
Projections as far out as 2080 are extremely unreliable. And how are you calculating them anyway?
Yeah they are unreliable, but they kind of give a general estimate. To calculate them, I just took the year growth from 2010-2011 and multiplied it by 10 to get 2010-2020 and then added the number of population increase from 2010-2020 after that. For example, Greenville grew by about 3200 people from 2010-2011 so I multiplied that by 10 and got about 32,000 from 2010-2020. Then I added 32,000 to the 2020 number and so on.
Reply With Quote Quick reply to this message

 
Old 05-09-2013, 08:26 PM
 
29,891 posts, read 27,333,728 times
Reputation: 18435
Quote:
Originally Posted by kgartm1185 View Post
Yeah they are unreliable, but they kind of give a general estimate. To calculate them, I just took the year growth from 2010-2011 and multiplied it by 10 to get 2010-2020 and then added the number of population increase from 2010-2020 after that. For example, Greenville grew by about 3200 people from 2010-2011 so I multiplied that by 10 and got about 32,000 from 2010-2020. Then I added 32,000 to the 2020 number and so on.
No offense, but that's a rather horrible way to calculate population projections. Even though it's also unreliable, you'd be better off using the percentage of growth during the previous decade as the metric of choice. That's what most standard projections use.
Reply With Quote Quick reply to this message
 
Old 05-09-2013, 08:56 PM
 
Location: Greenville, SC
282 posts, read 358,435 times
Reputation: 43
Quote:
Originally Posted by Mutiny77 View Post
No offense, but that's a rather horrible way to calculate population projections. Even though it's also unreliable, you'd be better off using the percentage of growth during the previous decade as the metric of choice. That's what most standard projections use.
Ok, but I still think Greenville is growing faster than Columbia at least.
Reply With Quote Quick reply to this message
 
Old 05-10-2013, 12:45 AM
 
Location: Jackson, MS
29 posts, read 43,502 times
Reputation: 68
Louisiana (my homestate): Baton Rouge might surpass New Orleans (my hometown). The problem with Nola is that it is landlocked between a river and a lake.

Mississippi (I got to college in Jackson, MS): I don't see any other cities surpassing Jackson in the near future even though Jackson has experienced tremendous loss since the whole civil rights movement, it was only "white flight" which caused its suburbs to grow. However, Jackson is starting to see growth as well as revitalization of the downtown area such as luxury condos for young professionals. So I don't see any city surpassing Jackson.
Reply With Quote Quick reply to this message
 
Old 05-10-2013, 03:36 AM
 
Location: Somewhere extremely awesome
3,024 posts, read 2,461,585 times
Reputation: 2312
Quote:
Originally Posted by westboundrambler View Post
At the rate Detroits going down and the rate Grand Rapids is slowly going up I wouldn't be surprised if Grand Rapids was bigger in 60-80 years.
As rough as Detroit is having it, I think this is highly unlikely. Detroit is still almost 4 times larger than Grand Rapids right now.
Reply With Quote Quick reply to this message
 
Old 05-10-2013, 02:05 PM
 
29,891 posts, read 27,333,728 times
Reputation: 18435
Quote:
Originally Posted by kgartm1185 View Post
Ok, but I still think Greenville is growing faster than Columbia at least.
But it's not.
Reply With Quote Quick reply to this message
 
Old 05-10-2013, 02:29 PM
 
Location: Up on the moon laughing down on you
18,509 posts, read 28,157,104 times
Reputation: 7598
If Houston is to be surpassed it would be by San Antonio.

They would need to basically annex their entire metro but there are no sizeable cities around in the metro for competition.

Other than that I don't see any other city in Texas coming close.
Dallas is land locked and Fw, Austin and El Paso are too far behind
Reply With Quote Quick reply to this message
 
Old 05-10-2013, 03:09 PM
 
9,382 posts, read 9,532,267 times
Reputation: 5786
Tennessee is the most likely Nashville is growing much faster than Memphis.
Then there are states like New Hampshire where the top 2 cities are close but the larger one is growing faster. So Nahua will never surpass Manchester. Lousiana is like this as well.
Texas, Massachusetts, Michigan, Rhode Island, New York, Illinois, California, and Maryland just have insurmountable margins
Reply With Quote Quick reply to this message
 
Old 05-10-2013, 04:38 PM
 
Location: Greenville, SC
282 posts, read 358,435 times
Reputation: 43
Quote:
Originally Posted by Mutiny77 View Post
But it's not.
Yes it is. Greenville gained 1,970 people from 2010 to 2011 and Columbia gained 1,319 people. Greenville MSA gained 18,000 people from 2010 to 2011 and Columbia gained 17,000. Greenville's urban population gained 130,000 people from 2000 to 2010 and Columbia gained 95,000 people. Greenville CSA gained 22,000 people from 2010 to 2011 and Columbia CSA gained 10,000 people.

Last edited by kgartm1185; 05-10-2013 at 04:49 PM..
Reply With Quote Quick reply to this message
 
Old 05-10-2013, 04:45 PM
 
29,891 posts, read 27,333,728 times
Reputation: 18435
Quote:
Originally Posted by kgartm1185 View Post
Yes it is. Greenville gained 1,970 people from 2010 to 2011 and Columbia gained 1,319 people. Greenville MSA gained 18,000 people from 2010 to 2011 and Columbia gained 17,000. Greenville's urban population gained 130,000 people from 2000 to 2010 and Columbia gained 95,000 people.
I use the decennial figures to gauge growth because they are official. The yearly estimates can be waaaayyy off and often are.

Going by city and metro population, Columbia grew faster in the previous decade. Greenville's UA did grow by more though.
Reply With Quote Quick reply to this message
Please register to post and access all features of our very popular forum. It is free and quick. Over $68,000 in prizes has already been given out to active posters on our forum. Additional giveaways are planned.

Detailed information about all U.S. cities, counties, and zip codes on our site: City-data.com.


Reply
Please update this thread with any new information or opinions. This open thread is still read by thousands of people, so we encourage all additional points of view.

Quick Reply
Message:


Over $104,000 in prizes was already given out to active posters on our forum and additional giveaways are planned!

Go Back   City-Data Forum > U.S. Forums > General U.S.
Follow City-Data.com founder on our Forum or

All times are GMT -6.

2005-2019, Advameg, Inc. · Please obey Forum Rules · Terms of Use and Privacy Policy · Bug Bounty

City-Data.com - Archive 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12, 13, 14, 15, 16, 17, 18, 19, 20, 21, 22, 23, 24, 25, 26, 27, 28, 29, 30, 31, 32, 33, 34, 35 - Top