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Old 01-29-2014, 08:45 AM
226 posts, read 192,316 times
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Moving South and West? Metropolitan America in 2042 | Newgeography.com

Do you think these projections are reasonable?
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Old 01-29-2014, 08:52 AM
Location: Northeast Suburbs of PITTSBURGH
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Originally Posted by Scout0417 View Post
Moving South and West? Metropolitan America in 2042 | Newgeography.com

Do you think these projections are reasonable?
For the SW better find a way to desalinate if you want that many living there. I honestly think Texas will continue to grow but slow in the coming years.
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Old 01-29-2014, 09:03 AM
Location: Maryland
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From the source:

"Projections are Projections...Unforeseen circumstances could result in a materially different future than forecasts suggest."
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Old 01-29-2014, 09:23 AM
Location: Minneapolis (St. Louis Park)
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It looks like they simply extrapolated the growth rates from either the last Census or another similar period for another three decades. Nothing scientific or even interesting about that whatsoever. VERY few cities stay on a specific projectory for that long a time period, with some exceptions possibly including places like Minneapolis, which has grown between 10% and 15% per decade for quite some time now. Cities that are enticing because of cheap housing and other sprawl characteristics can't continue to gobble up land indefinitely without some serious reprocussions, such as dwindling resources, price appreciation, increased taxes, intolerable congestion, etc. Those places won't be as attractive once they -- like their slower-growing bretheren -- become more expensive with more hassles than they're worth. Because land supply is pretty much constrained in most places (and if it wasn't, sprawl would cause traffic congestion to slow the growth), land values would increase and the cost to maintain systems and services would also rise (taxes).

So for places like Houston, Dallas or Atlanta to reach Chicago's size and NOT have higher costs, more traffic, etc. than Chicago (a hypothetical peer city), they'd have to have a similar or greater metro population density and offer similar mass transit options to contain that level of human activity. I don't see either happening before demand is curtailed, even considering the recent investments being made towards light rail and urban redevelopment in some of those areas.

That's my take, anyways.
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Old 01-29-2014, 09:33 AM
Location: Pasadena, CA
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It would be insane if the Inland Empire continued its growth rates for the next 25-30 years. There are still quite a bit of open spaces to keep sprawling, but most of that growth would have to be densification. Not sure there would be much of a draw for the IE if the cost of living crept closer to LA-levels.
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Old 01-30-2014, 12:37 PM
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I think Texas cities will continue to grow as well as Atlanta since they have plenty of land to sprawl. Miami will eventually reach a point where it can't grow due to land constraints and most of it's growth will be vertical instead of sprawl.
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Old 01-30-2014, 04:49 PM
Location: south central
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I agree with previous posters. What is the point of projections that simply amplify current states of affair and growth? And it's not impossible for them to try and insert variables into their formulas. Over the next half century, a number of variables are going to determine the rise and fall of various American cities: resources, economic shifts, housing availability, cost of living, immigration, higher education, and weather patterns, just to name what I can think of.

Some of these things may be completely unforeseeable such as a new immigration wave. Other seems to have gathered more suspicion, such as access to water in Phoenix, or increasing temperatures in Dallas, San Antonio, Houston, and Phoenix, which could severely effect cost of living.

I'd expect Washington, D.C.'s growth to continue. Governments don't shrink, they always grow. I still expect Riverside and San Bernardino to grow much bigger before they start to trend in some other direction. They're still the affordable alternative to Los Angeles and San Diego. New York's growth looks small but of course we know that's because it's population is already enormous. Provincial growth and zoning policies may prevent growth in Boston. Philly rounds out the northeast but I don't know what to expect there.

I don't think it's unreasonable to suspect many rust belt cities will continue their decline. Especially Buffalo, Cleveland, Rochester. But I think a few may see turn arounds in the future. I'm betting on Detroit as a cheaper, more resourceful alternative to the Southwest. I think demographics and a healthy job sector will keep Atlanta with an upwards growth rate, but their urban planning policies will determine how large or small that growth will be.
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Old 01-30-2014, 06:26 PM
Location: Atlanta and St Simons Island, GA
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Sprawl=intellectual laziness and a tendency toward stereotype.
Otherwise, let's just fight the tide.
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Old 01-30-2014, 07:18 PM
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Water will never be a problem in America.

I do have one doubt about the rankings though. Miami and Washington DC currently are both bigger and growing faster than Atlanta. I don't see that changing soon with Atlanta's rough economy. I see Atlanta rising to 8th place only displacing Philadelphia.
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Old 01-30-2014, 07:43 PM
Location: Jacksonville, FL
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I don't believe it.

Growth is cyclical, like real estate. I predict that within the next 20 years, growth in the South and West will slow down drastically, and will start to pick up rapidly in the Northeast and Midwest. The sunbelt will become expensive due to spatial limitations that will eventually be reached. Jobs will continue to pay much higher in the Northeast and home values will remain flat or start declining, in order to attract people back up north. It's a supply and demand concept.

The ONLY reason people are migrating south and west is because of climate/weather, which is a superficial reason, not an economic reason so much. I can guarantee you that most people would stay up north if climate was a non-issue to people.

Also, I believe that Phoenix and Las Vegas growth will come to a screeching halt due to severely depleted water resources. Those are the most artificial metros ever.
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