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Old 01-01-2015, 06:50 PM
 
Location: Earth
1,305 posts, read 1,254,576 times
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Let me see if I understand this correctly. When calculating square miles of a stay and divide it by its growth, Mass is number one.
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Old 01-02-2015, 07:36 AM
 
Location: Wonderland
44,708 posts, read 36,132,256 times
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Originally Posted by bolehboleh View Post
Let me see if I understand this correctly. When calculating square miles of a stay and divide it by its growth, Mass is number one.
What we need is more cowbell.
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Old 01-02-2015, 10:05 AM
 
1,280 posts, read 688,951 times
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I can see Texas and Florida having more gains due to weather and abundant job growth there, plus lower taxes. It's hard to see California gaining much more in the way of residents (legal ones) in the coming years unless tax rates go way down. Most migration from northern and midwestern will be going to Sun Belt states.
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Old 01-03-2015, 08:48 PM
 
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I'd have to see the metro area growth rate/square mile. Most of Massachusetts could be counted as Boston's, while comparing that to the size of Phoenix+Tucson or Dallas+Austin+Houston+San Antonio+etc metros.
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Old 01-03-2015, 09:11 PM
 
Location: Minneapolis (St. Louis Park)
5,991 posts, read 8,313,140 times
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Originally Posted by Gurn350 View Post
I can see Texas and Florida having more gains due to weather and abundant job growth there, plus lower taxes. It's hard to see California gaining much more in the way of residents (legal ones) in the coming years unless tax rates go way down. Most migration from northern and midwestern will be going to Sun Belt states.
Not only is that old news, but I don't think it applies much anymore.
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Old 01-03-2015, 09:58 PM
 
Location: Atlanta
5,286 posts, read 3,505,244 times
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Originally Posted by Min-Chi-Cbus View Post
Not only is that old news, but I don't think it applies much anymore.
Sure it still applies, and statistics back it up. The Midwest and Northeast are still moving South, and it's nothing new. Immigration is the only thing propping up many areas.

The trend doesn't appear to be going away, either.

The numbers of people going in the other direction are tiny, and measurable.
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Old 01-03-2015, 10:07 PM
 
Location: Pittsburgh, PA (Morningside)
12,416 posts, read 11,917,166 times
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Originally Posted by JMatl View Post
Sure it still applies, and statistics back it up. The Midwest and Northeast are still moving South, and it's nothing new. Immigration is the only thing propping up many areas.

The trend doesn't appear to be going away, either.
True. But as noted before, not all transplants are created equal. Retirees who move South are likely to only reside independently for 10-20 years. Population growth due to retirees must thus be constantly refreshed with a new cohort of retirees, or it will quickly result in negative population growth. In contrast, attraction of young people likely to eventually start families will make a big difference in future population growth for a state.
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Old 01-04-2015, 08:58 AM
 
Location: Mexico City, formerly Columbus, Ohio
13,097 posts, read 13,480,618 times
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Originally Posted by JMatl View Post
Sure it still applies, and statistics back it up. The Midwest and Northeast are still moving South, and it's nothing new. Immigration is the only thing propping up many areas.

The trend doesn't appear to be going away, either.

The numbers of people going in the other direction are tiny, and measurable.
New York all by itself has accounted for about 1/3rd of all the North to South/West migrants. It's long been that way. The "North" in this case has always been a story of a few states.

While the numbers I posted don't directly address this point, North to South domestic migration has been falling for about a decade, even before the recession began. Northern states have been able to retain more of their residents. I suspect this is a two-fold reason: Improving economic conditions there, and less mobility during the downturn. Recent annual numbers suggest this trend is continuing despite the recovery. The South will likely have to rely more on natural growth and international migration increasingly in the future. It may still see positive domestic migration to some degree, but not likely at nearly the same level as those states have become accustomed to.

I wouldn't say that. For example, my home state of Ohio has seen a drastic reduction in the losses to the South, on the order of about 85% in the last 10 years. It had positive domestic migration from about half of the Southern states, including those like North Carolina, which was one of its biggest feeder states previously.
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Old 01-04-2015, 10:43 AM
 
Location: livin' the good life
2,148 posts, read 3,669,888 times
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Originally Posted by jbcmh81 View Post
New York all by itself has accounted for about 1/3rd of all the North to South/West migrants. It's long been that way. The "North" in this case has always been a story of a few states.

While the numbers I posted don't directly address this point, North to South domestic migration has been falling for about a decade, even before the recession began. Northern states have been able to retain more of their residents. I suspect this is a two-fold reason: Improving economic conditions there, and less mobility during the downturn. Recent annual numbers suggest this trend is continuing despite the recovery. The South will likely have to rely more on natural growth and international migration increasingly in the future. It may still see positive domestic migration to some degree, but not likely at nearly the same level as those states have become accustomed to.

I wouldn't say that. For example, my home state of Ohio has seen a drastic reduction in the losses to the South, on the order of about 85% in the last 10 years. It had positive domestic migration from about half of the Southern states, including those like North Carolina, which was one of its biggest feeder states previously.
Contrary to what you believe I do believe the sunbelt will continue to see population growth from those that desire climate, quality of life and businesses continue to relocate for more favorable labor laws and companies desire to locate where population and business growth are strong. Access to ports and major airports (i.e. CLT) are a factor. The Southeast is considered Automotive alley with the many new plants that have been built.
US Census figures confirm the continued migration to the South (mainly from the North). In 2030 NC population is to grow to 12.2 million, Georgia population will be at 12 million in 2030. Ohio population will see minimal growth over this time. NC projected to be 7th most populous state jumping OH, NJ, GA. Georgia will be 8th most populous jumping NJ, OH.
http://www.santeelynchescog.org/popu...rojections.pdf
The I-85 corridor between Charlotte and Raleigh will be the fastest growing area in US over the next decade..
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Old 01-05-2015, 07:30 AM
 
Location: Mexico City, formerly Columbus, Ohio
13,097 posts, read 13,480,618 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ZnGuy View Post
Contrary to what you believe I do believe the sunbelt will continue to see population growth from those that desire climate, quality of life and businesses continue to relocate for more favorable labor laws and companies desire to locate where population and business growth are strong. Access to ports and major airports (i.e. CLT) are a factor. The Southeast is considered Automotive alley with the many new plants that have been built.
US Census figures confirm the continued migration to the South (mainly from the North). In 2030 NC population is to grow to 12.2 million, Georgia population will be at 12 million in 2030. Ohio population will see minimal growth over this time. NC projected to be 7th most populous state jumping OH, NJ, GA. Georgia will be 8th most populous jumping NJ, OH.
http://www.santeelynchescog.org/popu...rojections.pdf
The I-85 corridor between Charlotte and Raleigh will be the fastest growing area in US over the next decade..
It's not based on what I believe, but what I can prove. North to South migration HAS fallen by more than half in the last decade.

And I know we've had this debate before, but almost no one moves region to region because of climate. You can't keep claiming this to be true when census surveys keep showing that climate is one of the smallest reasons for relocation. Also, if the South has such awesome weather, why was the North the center of population growth from its inception through the 1950s? No one cared. It was about economics, and the North was the clear leader. The South did better after that, and cost of living was good, so there was a shift. But the North, save for a very few select places, is doing much better now. Unemployment rates are lower, job growth is decent, economies are far more diversified than they once were, etc. The boom had to end sometime, and all indications are that, at the very least, we're moving into a time of parity between the regions.

Population projections are notoriously bad. Ohio's population is already higher than it is supposed to be in 2030. It's domestic migration is improving, going from a loss of almost 41,000 in 2005, to just over 15,000 in 2013. Ohio more than doubled its domestic migration from the rest of the Northern states and is positive, dropped its losses to the South by more than a third, and is almost 8x higher in its migration from the West. Ohio has gone from having the 43rd fastest growth 2010-2011 to 21st 2013-2014, the fastest rise of any state. Also, if you project out the growth rates of Georgia and NC, they would not be near at 12 million by 2030, and neither would pass Ohio through the middle 2030s. That assumes current rates, but rates have been falling for 3 decades.

North Carolina, meanwhile, had Northern migration drop 40% in the period, Southern migration drop by over 180% and is now negative, and overall migration is down almost 45%. Ironically, NC sent Ohio a net of 3,000 people in 2013. Guess climate doesn't trump all.
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