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Old 12-26-2014, 04:35 PM
 
Location: Mexico City, formerly Columbus, Ohio
12,765 posts, read 12,741,891 times
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With the recent 2014 population estimates coming out, I took a closer look at the state trends since 1990. For the 2010-2020 estimate, I just used the 2010-2014 change and extrapolated through 2020.

First, population change rank for each decade.

Total Change Rank 1990-2000
California: 4,111,627
Texas: 3,865,310
Florida: 3,044,452
Georgia: 1,708,237
Arizona: 1,465,404
North Carolina: 1,420,676
Washington: 1,027,429
Colorado: 1,006,868
Illinois: 988,691
New York: 986,002
Virginia: 891,157
Tennessee: 812,098
Nevada: 796,424
New Jersey: 684,162
Michigan: 643,147
Oregon: 579,078
Minnesota: 543,814
Indiana: 536,326
South Carolina: 525,309
Maryland: 515,018
Utah: 510,319
Ohio: 506,025
Missouri: 478,138
Wisconsin: 471,906
Alabama: 406,513
Pennsylvania: 399,411
Kentucky: 356,473
Massachusetts: 332,672
Arkansas: 322,675
Oklahoma: 305,069
New Mexico: 303,977
Idaho: 287,204
Mississippi: 271,442
Louisiana: 249,003
Kansas: 210,844
Iowa: 149,569
Nebraska: 132,878
New Hampshire: 126,534
Connecticut: 118,449
Delaware: 117,432
Hawaii: 103,308
Montana: 103,130
Alaska: 76,889
South Dakota: 58,840
Maine: 46,995
Vermont: 46,069
Rhode Island: 44,855
Wyoming: 40,194
West Virginia: 14,867
North Dakota: 2,498

Southern State Average: +1,013,806
Western State Average: +800,905
Midwestern State Average: +393,556
Northeastern State Average: +310,691

Total Change Rank 2000-2010
Texas: 4,293,741
California: 3,382,308
Florida: 2,818,932
Georgia: 1,501,200
North Carolina: 1,486,158
Arizona: 1,261,385
Virginia: 922,5091
Washington: 830,419
Colorado: 727,934
Nevada: 702,294
Tennessee: 656,822
South Carolina: 613,352
Utah: 530,716
Maryland: 477,066
Pennsylvania: 421,325
Illinois: 411,339
Oregon: 409,675
Indiana: 403,317
New York: 401,645
Missouri: 393,716
Minnesota: 384,446
New Jersey: 377,544
Alabama: 332,645
Oklahoma: 300,697
Kentucky: 297,589
Idaho: 273,629
Arkansas: 242,518
New Mexico: 240,133
Wisconsin: 223,311
Massachusetts: 198,532
Ohio: 183,364
Connecticut: 168,532
Kansas: 164,700
Hawaii: 148,764
Mississippi: 122,639
Iowa: 120,031
Nebraska: 115,078
Delaware: 114,334
Montana: 87,220
Alaska: 83,299
New Hampshire: 80,684
Wyoming: 69,844
Louisiana: 64,396
South Dakota: 59,336
Maine: 53,438
West Virginia: 44,650
North Dakota: 31,293
Vermont: 16,914
Rhode Island: 4,248
Michigan: -54,804

Southeastern State Average: +983,017
Western State Average: +672,894
Northeastern State Average: +210,387
Midwestern State Average: +202,927

Total Change Rank 2010-2020
Texas: 4,528,493
California: 3,871,360
Florida: 2,729,968
North Carolina: 1,031,233
Georgia: 1,024,255
New York: 920,313
Arizona: 848,668
Washington: 842,475
Colorado: 816,675
Virginia: 813,163
Tennessee: 508,118
Maryland: 507,138
South Carolina: 503,643
Massachusetts: 494,448
Utah: 447,543
Minnesota: 383,120
New Jersey: 365,703
Oregon: 347,913
Nevada: 346,370
Oklahoma: 316,750
Louisiana: 290,760
Indiana: 282,633
Pennsylvania: 212,075
Missouri: 186,655
Kentucky: 185,225
Alabama: 171,540
North Dakota: 167,228
Idaho: 167,205
Iowa: 151,928
Hawaii: 148,150
Ohio: 144,148
Wisconsin: 139,318
Nebraska: 137,905
Kansas: 127,258
Arkansas: 126,195
Illinois: 124,870
South Dakota: 97,488
Delaware: 94,200
Montana: 85,410
Mississippi: 66,955
Alaska: 66,253
New Mexico: 65,870
Michigan: 65,593
Connecticut: 56,450
Wyoming: 51,318
New Hampshire: 25,858
Rhode Island: 6,515
Maine: 4,320
Vermont: 2,053
West Virginia: -6,670

Southern State Average: +877,831
Western State Average: +623,456
Midwestern State Average: +318,443
Northeastern State Average: +246,045

Now, the rank of the difference between the growth rates of 1990-2000 vs. 2010-2020.
North Dakota: +6,594.48%
South Dakota: +65.68%
Massachusetts: +48.63%
Hawaii: +43.41%
Wyoming: +27.68%
Texas: +17.16%
Louisiana: +16.77%
Oklahoma: 3.83%
Nebraska: +3.78%
Iowa: +1.58%
Maryland: -1.53%
South Carolina: -4.12%
California: -5.84%
New York: -6.66%
Virginia: -8.75%
Florida: -10.33%
Utah: -12.30%
Alaska: -13.83%
Montana: -17.18%
Washington: -18.00%
Colorado: -18.89%
Delaware: -19.78%
North Carolina: -27.41%
Minnesota: -29.55%
Tennessee: -37.43%
Kansas: -39.64%
Oregon: -39.92%
Georgia: -40.04%
Idaho: -41.78%
Arizona: -42.09%
New Jersey: -46.55%
Pennsylvania: -46.90%
Indiana: -47.30%
Kentucky: -48.04%
Connecticut: -52.34%
Nevada: -56.51%
Alabama: -57.80%
Arkansas: -60.89%
Missouri: -60.96%
Wisconsin: -70.48%
Ohio: -71.51%
Mississippi: -75.33%
New Mexico: -78.33%
New Hampshire: -79.56%
Rhode Island: -85.48%
Illinois: -87.37%
Michigan: -89.80%
Maine: -90.81%
Vermont: -95.54%
West Virginia: -144.86%

Midwestern State Average: +514.08%
Western State Average: -21.04%
Southern State Average: -34.09%
Northeastern State Average: -46.01%



And 2000-2010 vs. 2010-2020
North Dakota: +434.39%
Louisiana: +351.52%
Michigan: +219.69%
Massachusetts: +149.05%
New York: +129.14%
South Dakota: +64.30%
Rhode Island: +53.37%
Iowa: +26.57%
Nebraska: +19.84%
California: +14.46%
Colorado: +12.19%
Maryland: +6.30%
Texas: +5.47%
Oklahoma: +5.34%
Washington: +1.45%
Minnesota: -0.34%
Hawaii: -0.41%
Montana: -2.08%
New Jersey: -3.14%
Florida: -3.16%
Virginia: -11.85%
Oregon: -15.08%
Utah: -15.67%
Delaware: -17.61%
South Carolina: -17.89%
Alaska: -20.46%
Ohio: -21.39%
Tennessee: -22.64%
Kansas: -22.73%
Wyoming: -26.52%
Indiana: -29.92%
North Carolina: -30.61%
Georgia: -31.77%
Arizona: -32.72%
Wisconsin: -37.61%
Kentucky: -37.76%
Idaho: -38.89%
Mississippi: -45.40%
Arkansas: -47.96%
Alabama: -48.42%
Pennsylvania: -49.66%
Nevada: -50.68%
Missouri: -52.59%
Connecticut: -66.50%
New Hampshire: -67.94%
Illinois: -69.64%
New Mexico: -72.57%
Vermont: -87.86%
Maine: -91.92%
West Virginia: -114.94%

Midwestern State Average: +44.21%
Southern State Average: -3.58%
Northeastern State Average: -15.27%
Western State Average: -19.00%
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Old 12-26-2014, 07:32 PM
 
541 posts, read 1,343,501 times
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The top 6 fastest growing states are warm weather states.
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Old 12-26-2014, 08:57 PM
 
Location: Wonderland
40,885 posts, read 32,642,286 times
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https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qEIBmGZxAhg
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Old 12-26-2014, 09:39 PM
chh
 
Location: West Michigan
418 posts, read 461,222 times
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Very interesting data, a surprising amount of states have a slowing growth rate.
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Old 12-26-2014, 11:19 PM
 
Location: Earth
1,278 posts, read 1,174,708 times
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It's nice to see that after some stagnant growth, Massachusetts is picking up again. Hopefully will translate into more public transportation options.
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Old 12-26-2014, 11:59 PM
 
Location: Reseda (heart of the SFV)
273 posts, read 249,453 times
Reputation: 378
Quote:
Originally Posted by bolehboleh View Post
It's nice to see that after some stagnant growth, Massachusetts is picking up again. Hopefully will translate into more public transportation options.
Unfortunately for Massachusetts Arizona will be passing it up next year when the latest population estimates are released by the US Census Bureau. Massachusetts loss will be Arizona's gain with increased political power, prestige and notoriety.
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Old 12-27-2014, 05:45 AM
 
Location: Earth
1,278 posts, read 1,174,708 times
Reputation: 1353
Quote:
Originally Posted by Rico Valencia View Post
Unfortunately for Massachusetts Arizona will be passing it up next year when the latest population estimates are released by the US Census Bureau. Massachusetts loss will be Arizona's gain with increased political power, prestige and notoriety.
True. Seemingly no state in the Northeast can compete with Florida, Texas, Arizona and a number of other less expensive, warm weather states. Massachusetts simply doesn't have as much land so the housing costs are higher. Massachusetts has moved into number one for growth (per capita) over every other state in New England, even beating out the low tax state of New Hampshire. It seems that people will move places based on two things: jobs and/or weather. If the weather sucks, then they're better be good jobs. This is good because the Mass economy is doing rather well, even better than other states in the region with similar demographics and politics.

Massachusetts' job picture is good, budget balanced, Connecticut should take note - Hartford Courant

Edit*** http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of...on_growth_rate

Apparently Mass is 25th in the country in growth, putting it higher than any other state in the Northeast, not just New England.

Last edited by bolehboleh; 12-27-2014 at 05:58 AM..
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Old 12-27-2014, 11:06 AM
 
Location: Mexico City, formerly Columbus, Ohio
12,765 posts, read 12,741,891 times
Reputation: 5440
Quote:
Originally Posted by Jason_show View Post
The top 6 fastest growing states are warm weather states.
That's been the case for a long time. The real question is how long that lasts. The recession seemed to shake things up quite a bit. Besides most states growing much more slowly than they once did, there does not seem to be any specific pattern as to how the states are performing over time.

Midwestern states are seeing the best overall regional performance, with several states seeing gains in their growth rates vs. previous decades.

And both the Midwestern and Northeastern regions overall saw their state average growth rates increase this decade vs. the 2000s, while the Western and Southern states continued a long-term decline. This may be due to increased international migration, or also because those states are maintaining more of their population rather than sending it to the South and West.
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Old 12-27-2014, 11:11 AM
 
Location: Mexico City, formerly Columbus, Ohio
12,765 posts, read 12,741,891 times
Reputation: 5440
Quote:
Originally Posted by Rico Valencia View Post
Unfortunately for Massachusetts Arizona will be passing it up next year when the latest population estimates are released by the US Census Bureau. Massachusetts loss will be Arizona's gain with increased political power, prestige and notoriety.
There growth rates are going in the complete opposite direction. The only reason Arizona would pass Mass now is because of total growth rather than by rate.

I also think that Northern states are likely being underestimated while Southern/Western states are being overestimated because estimates are based more on past history than current activity. This happened quite a bit 2000-2010.
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Old 12-27-2014, 11:17 AM
 
Location: Texas
412 posts, read 377,248 times
Reputation: 472
Quote:
Originally Posted by jbcmh81 View Post
That's been the case for a long time. The real question is how long that lasts. The recession seemed to shake things up quite a bit. Besides most states growing much more slowly than they once did, there does not seem to be any specific pattern as to how the states are performing over time.

Midwestern states are seeing the best overall regional performance, with several states seeing gains in their growth rates vs. previous decades.

And both the Midwestern and Northeastern regions overall saw their state average growth rates increase this decade vs. the 2000s, while the Western and Southern states continued a long-term decline. This may be due to increased international migration, or also because those states are maintaining more of their population rather than sending it to the South and West.

Quote:
Originally Posted by jbcmh81 View Post
There growth rates are going in the complete opposite direction. The only reason Arizona would pass Mass now is because of total growth rather than by rate.

I also think that Northern states are likely being underestimated while Southern/Western states are being overestimated because estimates are based more on past history than current activity. This happened quite a bit 2000-2010.
I think there are cycles with growth. It's only 2014, the decade it not over. It will be interesting to see what happens when the next census comes out.
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