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Old 12-29-2014, 01:25 PM
 
Location: Mexico City, formerly Columbus, Ohio
13,103 posts, read 13,491,061 times
Reputation: 5778

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Here are the factors that make up growth rates per state by decade. For 2010-2020, I took the estimated growth 2010-2014 and extrapolated through 2020.

Total Births 1990-2000
California: 5,227,258
Texas: 3,025,567
New York: 2,539,280
Florida: 1,781,648
Illinois: 1,735,493
Ohio: 1,454,713
Pennsylvania: 1,438,566
Michigan: 1,287,572
New Jersey: 1,079,022
Georgia: 1,053,424
North Carolina: 967,386
Virginia: 872,681
Indiana: 779,368
Massachusetts: 778,803
Washington: 729,025
Missouri: 697,038
Tennessee: 687,916
Maryland: 687,293
Arizona: 670,677
Wisconsin: 637,733
Louisiana: 629,286
Minnesota: 603,264
Alabama: 568,961
Colorado: 513,908
South Carolina: 498,067
Kentucky: 494,758
Oklahoma: 437,373
Connecticut: 423,922
Oregon: 399,411
Mississippi: 389,349
Utah: 369,419
Iowa: 349,191
Kansas: 348,226
Arkansas: 330,123
New Mexico: 254,934
Nevada: 227,622
Nebraska: 217,510
West Virginia: 198,388
Hawaii: 173,388
Idaho: 166,298
New Hampshire: 142,027
Maine: 137,791
Rhode Island: 125,103
Montana: 103,358
Alaska: 98,976
South Dakota: 98,048
Delaware: 97,768
North Dakota: 78,833
Vermont: 67,101
Wyoming: 60,099

Southern State Total: 10,331,927
Western State Total: 8,994,373
Midwestern State Total: 8,286,989
Northeastern State Average: 7,516,676

Southern State Average: 737,995
Western State Average: 691,875
Midwestern State Average: 690,582
Northeastern State Average: 683,334

Total Births 2000-2010
California: 5,184,403
Texas: 3,663,130
New York: 2,382,730
Florida: 2,099,718
Illinois: 1,722,678
Ohio: 1,423,340
Pennsylvania: 1,385,559
Georgia: 1,335,062
Michigan: 1,224,680
North Carolina: 1,174,011
New Jersey: 1,065,238
Virginia: 983,434
Arizona: 898,004
Indiana: 831,042
Washington: 793,567
Tennessee: 774,375
Massachusetts: 747,178
Missouri: 745,317
Maryland: 716,401
Wisconsin: 671,579
Minnesota: 671,381
Colorado: 657,422
Louisiana: 611,104
Alabama: 581,329
South Carolina: 552,053
Kentucky: 532,953
Oklahoma: 494,871
Utah: 492,288
Oregon: 445,045
Mississippi: 413,005
Connecticut: 397,589
Kansas: 380,835
Iowa: 371,403
Arkansas: 370,525
Nevada: 342,017
New Mexico: 272,701
Nebraska: 248,215
Idaho: 217,412
West Virginia: 197,986
Hawaii: 173,586
New Hampshire: 138,576
Maine: 131,456
Rhode Island: 118,511
Montana: 111,599
Delaware: 109,203
South Dakota: 108,114
Alaska: 100,040
North Dakota: 78,877
Wyoming: 67,492
Vermont: 61,358

Southern State Total: 13,783,556
Western State Total: 9,755,576
Midwestern State Total: 8,477,461
Northeastern State Total: 7,253,799

Southern State Average: 984,540
Western State Average: 750,429
Midwestern State Average: 706,455
Northeastern State Average: 659,436


Total Births 2010-2010
California: 5,361,918
Texas: 4,065,883
New York: 2,559,693
Florida: 2,271,500
Illinois: 1,696,625
Pennsylvania: 1,512,258
Ohio: 1,465,738
Georgia: 1,392,480
North Carolina: 1,278,895
Michigan: 1,202,658
New Jersey: 1,112,333
Virginia: 1,093,515
Washington: 926,300
Arizona: 919,313
Indiana: 884,678
Tennessee: 847,720
Missouri: 802,780
Maryland: 775,765
Massachusetts: 773,048
Minnesota: 728,803
Wisconsin: 714,225
Colorado: 697,105
Louisiana: 661,238
Alabama: 624,545
South Carolina: 610,145
Kentucky: 588,363
Utah: 545,968
Oklahoma: 506,338
Oregon: 478,965
Kansas: 425,523
Mississippi: 414,438
Arkansas: 406,728
Iowa: 403,378
Connecticut: 391,385
Nevada: 373,920
New Mexico: 288,678
Nebraska: 274,463
Idaho: 242,065
West Virginia: 218,393
Hawaii: 201,835
Maine: 134,930
New Hampshire: 130,063
Montana: 128,663
South Dakota: 127,535
Alaska: 119,970
Delaware: 118,500
Rhode Island: 116,300
North Dakota: 105,940
Wyoming: 79,963
Vermont: 63,995

Southern State Total: 14,980,181
Western State Total: 10,364,663
Midwestern State Total: 10,344,604
Northeastern State Total: 7,688,270

Southern State Average: 1,070,013
Midwestern State Average: 862,050
Western State Average: 797,282
Northeastern State Average: 698,934

So in regards to total births, the Midwest seems to be rapidly closing the gap between it and the West, and the average per state may end up being quite a bit higher this decade as well.

Now let's look at the % change between the time periods.

Total Births % Change 1990-2000 vs. 2010-2020
Nevada: +64.27%
Utah: +47.79%
Idaho: +45.56%
Arizona: +37.07%
Colorado: +35.65%
North Dakota: +34.39%
Texas: +34.38%
Wyoming: +33.05%
North Carolina: +32.20%
Georgia: +32.19%
South Dakota: +30.07%
Oklahoma: +28.11%
Florida: +27.49%
Washington: +27.06%
Nebraska: +26.18%
Virginia: +25.31%
Montana: +24.48%
Tennessee: +23.23%
Arkansas: +23.20%
South Carolina: +22.50%
Kansas: +22.20%
Alaska: +21.21%
Delaware: +21.21%
Minnesota: +20.81%
Oregon: +19.92%
Kentucky: +18.92%
Hawaii: +16.41%
Iowa: +15.55%
Missouri: +15.17%
Indiana: +13.51%
New Mexico: +13.24%
Maryland: +12.87%
Wisconsin: +11.99%
West Virginia: +10.08%
Alabama: +9.77%
Mississippi: +6.48%
Pennsylvania: +5.12%
Louisiana: +5.08%
New Jersey: +3.09%
California: +2.58%
New York: +0.80%
Ohio: +0.76%
Massachusetts: -0.74%
Maine: -2.08%
Illinois: -2.24%
Vermont: -4.63%
New Hampshire: -6.31%
Michigan: -6.59%
Rhode Island: -7.04%
Connecticut: -7.68%

Western State Average: +28.04%
Southern State Average: +20.00%
Midwestern State Average: +15.15%
Northeastern State Average: +1.33%

Total Births % Change 2000-2010 vs. 2010-2020
North Dakota: +34.31%
Alaska: +19.92%
Wyoming: +18.48%
South Dakota: +17.96%
Washington: +16.73%
Hawaii: +16.27%
Montana: +15.29%
Oklahoma: +13.23%
Kansas: +11.73%
Idaho: +11.34%
Virginia: +11.19%
Texas: +10.99%
Utah: +10.90%
Nebraska: +10.57%
South Carolina: +10.52%
Kentucky: +10.40%
West Virginia: +10.31%
Arkansas: +9.77%
Tennessee: +9.47%
Nevada: +9.33%
Pennsylvania: +9.14%
North Carolina: +8.93%
Iowa: +8.64%
Minnesota: +8.55%
Delaware: +8.51%
Maryland: +8.29%
Louisiana: +8.20%
Florida: +8.18%
Missouri: +7.71%
Oregon: +7.62%
Alabama: +7.43%
New York: +7.43%
Indiana: +6.45%
Wisconsin: +6.35%
Colorado: +6.04%
New Mexico: +5.86%
New Jersey: +4.42%
Georgia: +4.30%
Vermont: +4.30%
Massachusetts: +3.46%
California: +3.42%
Ohio: +2.98%
Maine: +2.64%
Arizona: +2.37%
Mississippi: +0.35%
Illinois: -1.51%
Connecticut: -1.56%
Michigan: -1.80%
Rhode Island: -1.87%
New Hampshire: -3.98%

Western State Average: 10.78%
Midwestern State Average: +9.96%
Southern State Average: +8.81%
Northeastern State Average: +3.47%
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Old 12-30-2014, 02:37 PM
 
Location: Mexico City, formerly Columbus, Ohio
13,103 posts, read 13,491,061 times
Reputation: 5778

Total Natural Growth (Births vs.Deaths) 1990-2000
California: 3,188,214
Texas: 1,771,562
New York: 1,019,718
Illinois: 763,539
Georgia: 527,844
Michigan: 524,406
Ohio: 497,546
New Jersey: 411,655
Florida: 411,414
Virginia: 395,448
North Carolina: 381,032
Washington: 356,061
Arizona: 353,477
Maryland: 312,115
Indiana: 296,628
Colorado: 288,209
Pennsylvania: 275,182
Massachusetts: 271,923
Louisiana: 267,058
Minnesota: 265,171
Wisconsin: 225,380
Tennessee: 224,197
Missouri: 204,911
South Carolina: 196,808
Alabama: 181,803
Connecticut: 155,140
Kentucky: 153,861
Oregon: 144,207
Mississippi: 143,124
New Mexico: 143,072
Oklahoma:138,874
Kansas:132,540
Nevada:117,185
Hawaii:105,712
Iowa:92,397
Idaho: 88,347
Arkansas: 85,943
Nebraska: 77,756
Alaska: 76,685
New Hampshire: 58,347
Delaware: 39,603
Rhode Island: 35,916
South Dakota: 35,283
Montana: 34,026
Maine: 30,127
Wyoming: 27,395
North Dakota: 24,683
Vermont: 22,304
West Virginia: 13,638

Western State Total: 5,166,221
Southern State Total: 4,892,606
Midwestern State Total: 3,140,236
Northeastern State Total: 2,631,397

Western State Average: 397,402
Southern State Average: 349,472
Midwestern State Average: 261,686
Northeastern State Average: 239218

Total Natural Growth 2000-2010
California: 2,947,099
Texas: 2,177,574
New York: 930,454
Illinois: 738,005
Georgia: 700,828
Florida: 491,293
Arizona: 475,030
North Carolina: 470,025
Virginia: 436,571
Michigan: 399,984
Ohio: 396,980
New Jersey: 383,636
Colorado:377,396
Utah:364,329
Washington:357,721
Minnesota:313,573
Indiana:305,020
Maryland: 300,754
Tennessee: 234,500
Wisconsin: 229,953
Massachusetts: 226,117
Missouri: 224,892
Louisiana: 219,275
South Carolina: 186,484
Pennsylvania: 172,018
Nevada: 171,920
Oklahoma: 161,374
Oregon: 152,894
Kentucky: 151,549
Kansas: 149,010
Mississippi: 143,172
Alabama:142,395
New Mexico: 132,744
Idaho:119,397
Connecticut:119,325
Iowa: 109,168
Arkansas: 105,188
Nebraska: 104,924
Hawaii: 87,475
Alaska: 70,339
New Hampshire: 43,141
South Dakota: 41,906
Delaware: 41,049
Montana: 31,800
Wyoming: 27,930
Rhode Island: 26,192
North Dakota: 23,750
Vermont: 12,761
Maine: 12,175
West Virginia: -552

Western State Total: 5,316,074
Southern State Average: 4,989,676
Midwestern State Total: 2,807,212
Northeastern State Total: 2,241,430

Western State Average: 408,929
Southern State Average: 356,405
Midwestern State Average: 233,934
Northeastern State Average: 203,766

Total Natural Growth 2010-2020
California: 2,757,308
Texas: 2,232,835
New York: 964,213
Georgia: 620,565
Illinois: 612,195
Virginia: 444,003
North Carolina: 415,233
Washington: 389,840
Florida:369,348
New Jersey: 361,848
Colorado:345,643
Arizona:314,046
Minnesota: 308,678
Maryland: 296,768
Ohio: 287,883
Indiana: 267,993
Michigan: 250,010
Louisiana: 219,680
Missouri: 211,583
Wisconsin: 205,903
Massachusetts: 203,028
Tennessee: 201,140
Oklahoma: 166,395
Kansas: 165,118
Pennsylvania: 162,563
South Carolina: 155,123
Nevada: 152,618
Kentucky: 134,903
Oregon: 130,850
Idaho:118,073
Nebraska:114,568
New Mexico: 113,138
Iowa:107,220
Mississippi: 105,150
Hawaii: 88,365
Alabama: 83,984
Connecticut: 80,603
Arkansas: 76,226
Alaska: 61,814
South Dakota: 51,540
North Dakota: 43,090
Delaware: 33,888
Montana: 32,705
Wyoming: 32,393
New Hampshire: 19,670
Rhode Island: 15,418
Vermont: 7,158
Maine: -2,593

West Virginia: -11,683

Southern State Total: 5,212,902
Western State Total: 4,536,793
Midwestern State Total: 2,625,781
Northeastern State Total: 2,122,894

Southern State Average: 372,350
Western State Average: 348,984
Midwestern State Average: 218,815
Northeastern State Average: 192,990

Last edited by jbcmh81; 12-30-2014 at 02:51 PM..
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Old 12-31-2014, 08:33 AM
 
Location: The canyon (with my pistols and knife)
13,222 posts, read 17,963,194 times
Reputation: 14658
Here's the natural population growth rank for every state with 8,000,000+ population among all 50 states:


1990-2000

1. California: 3,188,214
2. Texas: 1,771,562
3. New York: 1,019,718
4. Illinois: 763,539
5. Georgia: 527,844
6. Michigan: 524,406
7. Ohio: 497,546
8. New Jersey: 411,655
9. Florida: 411,414
10. Virginia: 395,448
11. North Carolina: 381,032
17. Pennsylvania: 275,182


2000-2010

1. California: 2,947,099
2. Texas: 2,177,574
3. New York: 930,454
4. Illinois: 738,005
5. Georgia: 700,828
6. Florida: 491,293
8. North Carolina: 470,025
9. Virginia: 436,571
10. Michigan: 399,984
11. Ohio: 396,980
12. New Jersey: 383,636
25. Pennsylvania: 172,018


2010-2020

1. California: 2,757,308
2. Texas: 2,232,835
3. New York: 964,213
4. Georgia: 620,565
5. Illinois: 612,195
6. Virginia: 444,003
7. North Carolina: 415,233
9. Florida:369,348
10. New Jersey: 361,848
15. Ohio: 287,883
17. Michigan: 250,010
25. Pennsylvania: 162,563


I knew that Pennsylvania was a demographic outlier in this regard, but I had no idea it was this extreme. South Carolina has roughly one third of the population of Pennsylvania, but it still had higher natural population growth between 2000 and 2010. And if the projections for 2020 are correct, then Kansas will have higher natural growth despite having roughly one sixth of the population.

One thing we can do with the 2000-2010 data is see how much of a state's population growth was attributable to migration (domestic and foreign combined). All we have to do is subtract each state's natural growth from its total growth to get the answer. Here are the numbers:


Total growth (2000-2010)

+4,293,741 - Texas
+3,382,308 - California
+2,818,932 - Florida
+1,501,200 - Georgia
+1,486,158 - North Carolina
+922,509 - Virginia
+421,325 - Pennsylvania
+411,339 - Illinois
+401,645 - New York
+377,544 - New Jersey
+183,364 - Ohio
-54,804 - Michigan


Natural growth (2000-2010)

+2,947,099 - California
+2,177,574 - Texas
+930,454 - New York
+738,005 - Illinois
+700,828 - Georgia
+491,293 - Florida
+470,025 - North Carolina
+436,571 - Virginia
+399,984 - Michigan
+396,980 - Ohio
+383,636 - New Jersey
+172,018 - Pennsylvania


Net migration (2000-2010)

+2,327,639 - Florida
+2,116,167 - Texas
+1,016,133 - North Carolina
+800,273 - Georgia
+485,938 - Virginia
+435,209 - California
+249,307 - Pennsylvania
-6,092 - New Jersey
-213,616 - Ohio
-326,666 - Illinois
-454,788 - Michigan
-528,809 - New York


It appears to me that Florida, North Carolina and Pennsylvania are far and away the most dependent on migration to grow, and migration to California, Georgia and Texas isn't quite as strong as I thought. It also appears that New Jersey isn't hemorrhaging people nearly as badly as I thought.
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Old 12-31-2014, 08:38 AM
 
Location: Wonderland
44,825 posts, read 36,186,607 times
Reputation: 63479

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