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The counterbalancing thing to consider that will really help urban cores when it comes to automated cars.
4. Automated cars will have a hard time ever replacing mass transit when it comes to rush hour commutes. This is because at that particular time, there will be peak demand for automated cars. Rental agencies wouldn't want to provide them, because a high proportion of these cars would sit idle for most of the day. And the logistics of queuing up would be horrible - imagine the traffic jams as every automated car attempts to line up to pick up its passenger on the front curb of a skyscraper. For this reason, I actually expect that automated cars will cause a lot of CBDs to go car-free except for service vehicles. If you want to have your car pick you up, you can go out to transfer station outside of Downtown. And since commuter mass transit will still be the best way to deal with rush hour traffic, the average person could combine commuter transit with car rental for shopping/errands/socialization, and no longer own a car at all.
You sure? A subway track peaks at something like 54,000 passengers per hour past a given point. A line of robo cars carrying 6 passengers every 30 feet can equal that performance at about 50 mph. So one well packed freeway lane with high density robo cars can equal a subway track.
Lots of problems of course. But lots of possibilities as well. The robo cars merge and unmerge on the fly...the procession never stops. Unlike a subway that requires the passengers board a stopped train.
I suspect the ultimate rapid transit solution may be the autonomous vehicle.
You sure? A subway track peaks at something like 54,000 passengers per hour past a given point. A line of robo cars carrying 6 passengers every 30 feet can equal that performance at about 50 mph. So one well packed freeway lane with high density robo cars can equal a subway track.
Lots of problems of course. But lots of possibilities as well. The robo cars merge and unmerge on the fly...the procession never stops. Unlike a subway that requires the passengers board a stopped train.
I suspect the ultimate rapid transit solution may be the autonomous vehicle.
You'd be right, except I don't think Americans would trust getting into a robo minibus with a few total strangers, even if they were being filmed at all times and there was some "emergency lockdown" mode if things went south.
I suspect instead we'll see most cars get smaller instead of bigger. One-car pods for when you ride alone, two-car pods when you are out on a date, something resembling an existing car when you need to drag the whole family around, etc. With trunk space also available in several sizes depending upon your needs.
I do think that buses and trains will go over to complete automation as well. But I wouldn't be surprised if they continue to employ someone just to sit there and act as an unofficial security guard. That is, until people start trusting security drones.
Why do you think there will be no traffic jams if we have automated cars? The same volume of cars will still be there, possibly more if people, like you said, are drawn to the idea of an automated car taking you places you don't have to think or worry about driving to?
lmao come on Jersey girl, dont make us look bad! like the other guy said. there will be no traffic lights or stop signs or stopping for tolls. the cars will react to one another and constantly be on the move.
lmao come on Jersey girl, dont make us look bad! like the other guy said. there will be no traffic lights or stop signs or stopping for tolls. the cars will react to one another and constantly be on the move.
Still don't see it. I guess it's just hard to imagine.
Still don't see it. I guess it's just hard to imagine.
To put this into perspective, I've read before that a large proportion of traffic jams are caused by inappropriate breaking. Essentially someone slows down, and the person behind them slams on the breaks. This causes a ripple effect back through the highway, which ultimately causes a jam a few miles back.
Automated cars shouldn't have this issue, because they will not be distracted, and automatically change speed to account for the cars in front reducing speed. Due to quicker reaction times, they should also be able to follow much closer than a human driver, which would allow driving at speed limits even in bumper-to-bumper traffic.
Cities set up with fully automated cars will not be a reality in any of our lifetimes.
Also: I love driving. Some of the "helpers" developed now are nice, but I trust my (accident-free) driving and enjoy doing so. Thank god I'll be dead before any of this becomes reality...
Cities set up with fully automated cars will not be a reality in any of our lifetimes.
Also: I love driving. Some of the "helpers" developed now are nice, but I trust my (accident-free) driving and enjoy doing so. Thank god I'll be dead before any of this becomes reality...
OK, tell me specifically when you believe actual drivers will be fully replaced on all roads by automatic cars? What year?
Because I love a good laugh.
I expect in twenty years not only will fully automated cars be a reality, but most new cars will come standard with automation. I also expect it will be legal by then for a car to drive without a person in the car, or with a person who cannot drive (such as a child).
Now, in twenty years, there will still be a fair amount of older cars which will still be fully manual on the road. And a lot of middle-aged people will prefer to drive manually. Many of these people will still be in the prime of their voting life, and would look poorly upon being banned from driving. There may be some highways which have gone over to automated, or with automated lanes, but that's about it. We won't see an end to stop signs and traffic signals until everyone who grew up with manual driving only is elderly.
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who the heck wants to live that far from some j.o.b.?
