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Under the new rules passed last year, the Hornets' marketing territory encompasses the entire state of North Carolina (in addition to a 150-mile radius from Charlotte, which was doubled from the previous rule). Technically, this includes the two North Carolina counties in the Hampton Roads MSA (Currituck and Gates).
It's actually the Wizards that have a bigger territorial claim to Hampton Roads, as the 150-mile radius from DC includes portions of Norfolk and Virginia Beach, as well as the entire Virginia Peninsula (Hampton, Newport News, etc.)
How does this work for the Wizards? Is "District of Columbia" considered their home state or would Maryland/Virginia qualify as their home states as well?
For me, any real league should include teams for cities (CSAs) with over 3,000,000 people. There are 21 of these cities: Atlanta (6,451,262) - Boston (8,176,376) - Chicago (9,882,634) - Cleveland (3,483,311) - Dallas (7,673,305) - Denver (3,470,235) - Detroit (5,318,653) - Houston (6,972,374) - Los Angeles (18,688,022) - Miami (6,723,472) - Minneapolis (3,894,820) - New York (23,689,255) - Orlando (3,202,927) - Philadelphia (7,179,357) - Phoenix (4,661,537) - Portland (3,160,488) - San Diego (3,317,749) - San Francisco (8,751,807) - Seattle (4,684,516) - Tampa (3,032,171) - Washington (9,665,892)
Looking at the actual leagues, most are pretty good at it.
Major League Baseball: MLB has 19 of the 21 CSAs currently represented. The only two missing are Orlando and Portland. I predict that Portland ultimately joins as one of the 32 final teams (+Montreal).
So MLB gets a projected score of 20/21 (95% A)
Major League Soccer: MLS has 15 of the 21 CSAs currently represented. Miami is also 99% likely. The missing five, therefore, are: Cleveland, Detroit, Phoenix, San Diego, Tampa. I predict the league will eventually reach 32 teams and Detroit, Phoenix, San Diego and Tampa will be among them (+Cincinnati, Nashville, Sacramento and Saint Louis). Cleveland will not.
So MLS gets a projected score of 20/21 (95% A)
National Basketball Association: The NBA has 18 of the 21 CSAs currently represented. The missing three are: San Diego, Seattle (notoriously) and Tampa. I predict the league will eventually reach 32 teams and Seattle will be among them (+Mexico City). San Diego and Tampa will not.
So NBA gets a projected score of 19/21 (90% A-)
There is a chance that the Brooklyn Nets may move to San Diego. That is still in the rumor mill, but that would bump the NBA up to 95% (leaving just Tampa).
National Football League: The NFL has 18 of the 21 CSAs currently represented. The missing three are: Orlando, Portland and San Diego. I predict the league will stay at 32 teams and none of the three outstanding markets will get a team. London may get either an expansion team or Jacksonville's team (I think the latter is more likely, personally). San Diego will not recover the Chargers. Portland is not on the radar. And Orlando's best bet is to poach Jacksonville but, if the Jaguars go to London, that strategy collapses as well. All in all, none of the three look set to get an NFL team anytime soon.
So NFL gets a projected score of 18/21 (86% B)
National Hockey League: The NHL has 14 of the 21 CSAs currently represented. The missing seven are: Atlanta (after Winnipeg), Cleveland, Houston, Orlando, Portland, San Diego, and Seattle. I project that the NHL will expand to 32 teams by adding Houston. I don't think any other cities will get teams anytime soon. All in all, it is puzzling that of the remaining cities three (Cleveland, Portland and Seattle) are relatively close to Canada and Orlando could have lots of Canadian retirees. It's even more puzzling that the NHL would maintain three teams in the New York Metro Area while Atlanta and Houston (both with 6 million+) do not have teams.
So NFL gets a projected score of 15/21 (71% C-)
Projected Scorecard:
(1) Major League Baseball 95% A (Tiebreaker: Further along than MLS)
(2) Major League Soccer 95% A
(3) National Basketball Association 90% A-
(4) National Football League 86% B
(5) National Hockey League 71% C
Current Scorecard:
(1) Major League Baseball 90% A-
(2) National Basketball Association 86% B (Tiebreaker: Projected Scorecard)
(3) National Football League 86% B
(4) Major League Soccer (incl. Miami) 76% C
(5) National Hockey League: 67% D
Location: Live:Downtown Phoenix, AZ/Work:Greater Los Angeles, CA
27,606 posts, read 14,604,784 times
Reputation: 9169
Quote:
Originally Posted by manitopiaaa
For me, any real league should include teams for cities (CSAs) with over 3,000,000 people. There are 21 of these cities: Atlanta (6,451,262) - Boston (8,176,376) - Chicago (9,882,634) - Cleveland (3,483,311) - Dallas (7,673,305) - Denver (3,470,235) - Detroit (5,318,653) - Houston (6,972,374) - Los Angeles (18,688,022) - Miami (6,723,472) - Minneapolis (3,894,820) - New York (23,689,255) - Orlando (3,202,927) - Philadelphia (7,179,357) - Phoenix (4,661,537) - Portland (3,160,488) - San Diego (3,317,749) - San Francisco (8,751,807) - Seattle (4,684,516) - Tampa (3,032,171) - Washington (9,665,892)
Looking at the actual leagues, most are pretty good at it.
Major League Baseball: MLB has 19 of the 21 CSAs currently represented. The only two missing are Orlando and Portland. I predict that Portland ultimately joins as one of the 32 final teams (+Montreal).
So MLB gets a projected score of 20/21 (95% A)
Major League Soccer: MLS has 15 of the 21 CSAs currently represented. Miami is also 99% likely. The missing five, therefore, are: Cleveland, Detroit, Phoenix, San Diego, Tampa. I predict the league will eventually reach 32 teams and Detroit, Phoenix, San Diego and Tampa will be among them (+Cincinnati, Nashville, Sacramento and Saint Louis). Cleveland will not.
So MLS gets a projected score of 20/21 (95% A)
National Basketball Association: The NBA has 18 of the 21 CSAs currently represented. The missing three are: San Diego, Seattle (notoriously) and Tampa. I predict the league will eventually reach 32 teams and Seattle will be among them (+Mexico City). San Diego and Tampa will not.
So NBA gets a projected score of 19/21 (90% A-)
There is a chance that the Brooklyn Nets may move to San Diego. That is still in the rumor mill, but that would bump the NBA up to 95% (leaving just Tampa).
National Football League: The NFL has 18 of the 21 CSAs currently represented. The missing three are: Orlando, Portland and San Diego. I predict the league will stay at 32 teams and none of the three outstanding markets will get a team. London may get either an expansion team or Jacksonville's team (I think the latter is more likely, personally). San Diego will not recover the Chargers. Portland is not on the radar. And Orlando's best bet is to poach Jacksonville but, if the Jaguars go to London, that strategy collapses as well. All in all, none of the three look set to get an NFL team anytime soon.
So NFL gets a projected score of 18/21 (86% B)
National Hockey League: The NHL has 14 of the 21 CSAs currently represented. The missing seven are: Atlanta (after Winnipeg), Cleveland, Houston, Orlando, Portland, San Diego, and Seattle. I project that the NHL will expand to 32 teams by adding Houston. I don't think any other cities will get teams anytime soon. All in all, it is puzzling that of the remaining cities three (Cleveland, Portland and Seattle) are relatively close to Canada and Orlando could have lots of Canadian retirees. It's even more puzzling that the NHL would maintain three teams in the New York Metro Area while Atlanta and Houston (both with 6 million+) do not have teams.
So NFL gets a projected score of 15/21 (71% C-)
Projected Scorecard:
(1) Major League Baseball 95% A (Tiebreaker: Further along than MLS)
(2) Major League Soccer 95% A
(3) National Basketball Association 90% A-
(4) National Football League 86% B
(5) National Hockey League 71% C
Current Scorecard:
(1) Major League Baseball 90% A-
(2) National Basketball Association 86% B (Tiebreaker: Projected Scorecard)
(3) National Football League 86% B
(4) Major League Soccer (incl. Miami) 76% C
(5) National Hockey League: 67% D
Why would the Jaguars move to the UK? They would have to switch to the NFL Europe; and more importantly, I haven't heard any talk of any team wanting to move to Europe from the US
Why would the Jaguars move to the UK? They would have to switch to the NFL Europe; and more importantly, I haven't heard any talk of any team wanting to move to Europe from the US
I agree with you. I have no idea why any U.S. team would want to move to Europe. I am sure that the players wouldn't be very happy about it.
Why would the Jaguars move to the UK? They would have to switch to the NFL Europe; and more importantly, I haven't heard any talk of any team wanting to move to Europe from the US
Please re-read what I posted: "London may get either an expansion team or Jacksonville's team (I think the latter is more likely, personally)." I did not say London would get a team but, if they do, I think relocation is more likely at this point than a 33-team league. And, of relocation options, Jacksonville is the clear winner. Why?
1) Because Shahid Khan, owner of the Jaguars, is a Londonphile who even owns a London football team (Fulham). He's the one that has pushed for the Jaguars to expand into the London market and become London's de facto team.
2) Because NFL Europe was a dud and it's clear only London is a feasible market in Europe at this juncture, meaning a London team would have to join with the USA.
4) Because the Jaguars play there every year, and will do so through 2020
5) And, yes, because there HAS been talk of them being a contender for relocation to Europe (see the whole section titled "Are the Jaguars going to relocate to London?")
Frankly, I think the London idea is dumb and I think what the NFL needs is: (a) move Jacksonville to Orlando, (b) move the Chargers back to San Diego, and (c) Move the Buffalo Bills to either Portland (Oregon) or Toronto (the latter being preferable but the dying and boring CFL has a strong lobbying arm in Ottawa).
Why in the world would the Jaguars move to Orlando? There's absolutely no reason at all
As a fan of Jax and the Jags, I very much hope and do not think that the team will move to London. But at least in the case of London I can understand the benefits to the franchise and owner. If such a move were to occur someday, they would still need a US base and I'm sure Jax would be retained for that (unless there was so much bad blood that it couldn't be done). In any case this is loose speculation and no move will be occurring in the short term, that's for sure.
In the meantime, Jacksonville made a pitch last week to host the NFL draft...not just for 2019 but "permanently. "I think the NFL likes putting this on rotation so not sure there's much likelihood of achieving that, but the team has been building infrastructure and creating a vision in the stadium district to host larger and bigger sporting events just like this. And I'm not sure there's ever been anything owner Shad Khan wanted that he did not eventually manage to get.
Why in the world would the Jaguars move to Orlando? There's absolutely no reason at all
As a fan of Jax and the Jags, I very much hope and do not think that the team will move to London. But at least in the case of London I can understand the benefits to the franchise and owner. If such a move were to occur someday, they would still need a US base and I'm sure Jax would be retained for that (unless there was so much bad blood that it couldn't be done). In any case this is loose speculation and no move will be occurring in the short term, that's for sure.
In the meantime, Jacksonville made a pitch last week to host the NFL draft...not just for 2019 but "permanently. "I think the NFL likes putting this on rotation so not sure there's much likelihood of achieving that, but the team has been building infrastructure and creating a vision in the stadium district to host larger and bigger sporting events just like this. And I'm not sure there's ever been anything owner Shad Khan wanted that he did not eventually manage to get.
Because the Jags are frequently in the bottom tier in attendance and this year has been their worst this decade:
Attendance:
2010: 63,032 (#24 of 32)
2011: 62,331 (#25 of 32)
2012: 64,984 (#20 of 32)
2013: 59,940 (#28 of 32)
2014: 62,961 (#24 of 32)
2015: 61,463 (#27 of 32)
2016: 61,915 (#26 of 32)
2017: 59,874 (#29 of 32)
I don't think the Jaguars are leaving anytime soon but IF a team has to relocate next, the Jaguars are the #! contenders. 5 years ago the 5 weakest teams in attendance were: Miami, Oakland, Saint Louis, San Diego, Tampa.
As you well know, Oakland, Saint Louis and San Diego all lost their teams and the only thing keeping Miami and Tampa in place is they are Top 12 Media Markets.
In the past 5 years, the Jaguars have been in the lowest 5 in 2013, 2015, and 2017 (and barely missed it in 2016). I don't understand how anyone can look at the Jaguars in Jacksonville and consider them a safe bet to remain.
As you know, Orlando's Media Market is 2x bigger than Jacksonville's and is growing faster in both aggregate and percentage terms. If the NFL is looking to move the Jaguars, a 4 million+ person market just down I-95/I-4 isn't a bad option.
[quote=manitopiaaa;50211422
As you know, Orlando's Media Market is 2x bigger than Jacksonville's and is growing faster in both aggregate and percentage terms. If the NFL is looking to move the Jaguars, a 4 million+ person market just down I-95/I-4 isn't a bad option.[/QUOTE]
Missing from that analysis is the fact that the Orlando media market has one of the lowest levels of disposable income in the US. While population is sufficient for those paying $65-$75 a seat in an arena that seats 18K for the Orlando Magic for instance, there would be considerable concern about the probability of finding 65K-70K paying those kind of seat prices every week for an NFL team. Also I find it fascinating that while picking on the Jaguars attendance numbers there's no mention of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers average attendance the past several years which is at (or mostly below) what Jacksonville has averaged despite being the 18th largest metro area in the US, while Jacksonville ranks 40th.
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