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Old 05-28-2015, 09:09 PM
 
Location: The Pacific Northwest
6,015 posts, read 6,362,170 times
Reputation: 8281

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Quote:
Originally Posted by steveklein View Post
Um... no. That is 4x the rate. That is a huge statistical difference.
No, it's not. Not when you are dealing with the average risk to X person in either country.
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Old 05-29-2015, 01:41 AM
 
Location: Leafy London
504 posts, read 354,452 times
Reputation: 767
Quote:
Originally Posted by Bluefox View Post
No, it's not. Not when you are dealing with the average risk to X person in either country.
Well that's OK then. A huge comfort that I'm only 4 times as likely to be murdered in the USA than in Finland. Or 5 times as likely as in my country, which has a rate of 0.83.

And 14 times as likely in Baltimore than in London (and that NYC's rate is almost as low as London's goes to show the incredible progress that city has made over the years).

This attitude goes a long way to explain just why the USA is so violent.
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Old 05-29-2015, 08:13 AM
 
11,172 posts, read 22,366,973 times
Reputation: 10919
Quote:
Originally Posted by 640TAG View Post
Well that's OK then. A huge comfort that I'm only 4 times as likely to be murdered in the USA than in Finland. Or 5 times as likely as in my country, which has a rate of 0.83.

And 14 times as likely in Baltimore than in London (and that NYC's rate is almost as low as London's goes to show the incredible progress that city has made over the years).

This attitude goes a long way to explain just why the USA is so violent.
That's just the point. FOUR TIMES AS LIKELY means a difference between 0.004% and 0.001%. Statistically it's four times as much which sounds scary. Statistsically it would also be effectively "zero" to any normal numan being when looking at either number.

Who would say they are going to avoid XXX city because each year 0.004% of the population gets murdered, but they are totally fine going to XXX because only 0.001% of the populatoin gets murdered.

Murders are a big deal and I'm not downplaying them, but to the AVERAGE CITIZEN the chances are still what they are in each......effectively zero.

If we froze everything and kept the same murder rate, the extremely violent USA would take 25,000 years to have its population completely murdered.

For the average citizen living their life on earth, the USA and Finland are basically equally as violent when it comes to murder. The USA's rates are much higher, but the overall rates are so close to zero that the impact wouldn't be noticable at all to a random person unless you get down to the finite statistics.
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Old 05-29-2015, 09:01 AM
 
Location: Nashville, TN
1,899 posts, read 1,205,326 times
Reputation: 1535
Quote:
Originally Posted by Chicago60614 View Post
That's just the point. FOUR TIMES AS LIKELY means a difference between 0.004% and 0.001%. Statistically it's four times as much which sounds scary. Statistsically it would also be effectively "zero" to any normal numan being when looking at either number.
That's exactly right. Or to look at it another way...

If you have two countries with equal populations, in Country X one person dies from tripping on legos, and Country Y has four people that died from legos, what does that tell you? You're four times as likely to die of a lego accident in Country Y maybe, but don't go burning all your legos yet. The odds of that happening are incredibly rare.
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Old 05-29-2015, 07:40 PM
Status: "I hate living in Georgia!!" (set 8 days ago)
 
47,996 posts, read 45,443,916 times
Reputation: 15312
Quote:
Originally Posted by RightonWalnut View Post
Philadelpha: 87

Not great, but better than it's been in recent years.

Crime Maps & Stats | Philadelphia Police Department
And this is also considering that Philadelphia has twice as many people as Baltimore.
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Old 05-30-2015, 07:01 AM
 
1,229 posts, read 973,401 times
Reputation: 929
Quote:
Originally Posted by 640TAG View Post
Well that's OK then. A huge comfort that I'm only 4 times as likely to be murdered in the USA than in Finland. Or 5 times as likely as in my country, which has a rate of 0.83.

And 14 times as likely in Baltimore than in London (and that NYC's rate is almost as low as London's goes to show the incredible progress that city has made over the years).

This attitude goes a long way to explain just why the USA is so violent.
NYC's homicide rate is still almost 4 times London's. That's definitely not almost as low as London's.
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Old 05-30-2015, 07:09 AM
Status: "I hate living in Georgia!!" (set 8 days ago)
 
47,996 posts, read 45,443,916 times
Reputation: 15312
Quote:
Originally Posted by Cliff Clavin View Post
I'm surprised Portland is so high. Is this the norm?
I don't think so. 30 is the most Portland has seen between 2000 and 2014. Considering there are 32 and its only late May, Portland is on pace to have 72 murders.
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Old 05-30-2015, 07:20 AM
 
2,070 posts, read 1,590,455 times
Reputation: 3348
Quote:
Originally Posted by meilmarc View Post
Not sure, guess the streets are just hot right now, but I figure its going to get worse cause the burglary/robbery crews are getting way out of hand. Whataburgers, Jack In The Box, IHOP, Dennys, etc are all getting robbed on a regular basis while full of customers. Plus the home invasions seem to be reported every few days
I thought it was just me who had noticed the drastic uptick in robberies in Houston...every thing from brazen smash and grabs, to stick ups, to good old-fashioned heists and home burglaries...it does seem to be getting a little out of hand as of late. (Within the past 2-3 years).
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Old 05-30-2015, 07:33 AM
 
Location: StlNoco Mo
6,312 posts, read 4,672,281 times
Reputation: 7729
Quote:
Originally Posted by soletaire View Post
I thought it was just me who had noticed the drastic uptick in robberies in Houston...every thing from brazen smash and grabs, to stick ups, to good old-fashioned heists and home burglaries...it does seem to be getting a little out of hand as of late. (Within the past 2-3 years).
The local news in my town was going to interview some guy that has been compiling statistics on burglaries,stick ups and violent crimes who said the number is down compared to last year but someone broke into his car and stole his laptop that had all the information.
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Old 05-30-2015, 10:44 AM
 
Location: Bronx, NY
5,515 posts, read 17,674,229 times
Reputation: 2059
Bronx at 27 as of may 17th, that would bring it's rate to about 2.07 per 100,000.
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