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Old 05-26-2015, 12:26 PM
 
10 posts, read 8,628 times
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What percent of americans will spend their whole lives without ever stepping foot in Minnesota?? (not even driving through it and not even on a stopover/connection in Minnesota)

What percent of americans will spend their whole lives without ever stepping foot in Sayreville New Jersey?

What percent of americans will spend their whole lives without ever stepping foot in Old Bridge Township New Jersey?? (not even driving through it via Parkway)
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Old 05-26-2015, 04:54 PM
 
Location: Victoria TX
42,663 posts, read 74,336,032 times
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Two percent lives there now, or close enough that nearby residents would probably have been there. That might swell to 3% by the time you count people who have already left Minnesota, and their children who will have family ties there.. Of the remaining 97%,, very few would have driven across unless they were going all the way to the coast, which is a pretty small number, since that's not the shortest way to the coast for anybody. Probably no more than 5% of the general population living several hundred miles from Minnesota, have ever been there. So I'd put the number at 92% who have never been there. There is no way of guessing how many will ever go there in the future, but given current trends, maybe 5% of people currently alive who have never been there, will eventually go there putting the number at 92% never been and 87% who never will. That would be a larger number than for most other states, because Minnesota is pretty far off the beaten track. For example, Ohio or Georgia could be well below 50%.

The problem with this line of thinking is that, with each factor entered, each error keeps magnifying itself. Three or four 10% errors in estimation could shift 50% to 90% or vice versa. It's like the direction finding method of lining up two objects to walk or fly in a straight line. If you are 1 degree off in each of 90 reckonings, you've just turned a right angle, thinking you've walked straight..

Last edited by jtur88; 05-26-2015 at 05:15 PM..
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