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We've seen some in-roads of political changes, especially in places like formerly red VA that has gone blue due to immigration and an increasing urbanization in the northern part of the state.
What other areas do you think will have a massive political realignment? Texas? Georgia?
Location: northern Vermont - previously NM, WA, & MA
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I wouldn't predict any massive political realignments insofar. Some states commonly thought of as red states are more likely to trend from center right to center left with demographic and generational shifts and growing cities and metro areas within them, in a similar way that Colorado has made those transitions in the last decade or so. If Georgia and Texas were to do this (though I'd be skeptical) I'd also add Arizona as well, as long as the candidate on the left did not interfere with existing gun laws. North Carolina has that potential as well, but it really just depends on how many people show up at the polls.
Last edited by Champ le monstre du lac; 07-28-2015 at 07:47 AM..
It is interesting how almost all states that have begun trending a different direction or become swing in the presidential elections since 2000 (Florida, North Carolina, New Hampshire, Virginia, etc.) have all swung leftward. Not a single (that I can think of) state has trended rightward. Could this be the demographic shift that could slowly kill the GOP eventually?
I can definitely see Texas slowly begin to turn competitive as well. That would put a huge number of electoral votes into play and would seriously damage Republican efforts in presidential election years.
Hillary has surprising large political capital in Texas and would probably push the state closer to the purple category. Trump would have the same effect. Both would give the democratic base a huge reason to go out and vote.
Texas is strongly conservative on fiscal issues but not as strongly so on social issues. A fiscally responsible Democrat would go far in Texas, while a staunch socially conservative republican might turn off too many libertarian republicans ( especially if a Ross Perot type spoiler is in the mix).
Prior to the late 1990s states didn't have such rigidly established political identities. States that we consider "solidly red" would go blue sometimes and vice versa. Look at presidential election result maps and you'll see that since 2000 (and almost certainly including 2016) the red and blue are almost exactly the same, with only a few places like FL, OH, VA, CO changing. Go back before 2000 though and things look very different each election. It's only recently that people have come to cling so mindlessly to their parties and their party agendas, and hopefully it will disappear soon, although there's no indication of that happening at the federal level.
The republicans just won their largest victory in 80 years! The republicans have the largest majority in the chamber since 1929 !!!
I dont see any red state turning blue if you judge from the last elections, maybe a few of the so called swing states went blue in the last presidential election from a dreadful campaign by romney, virginia or north carolina or florida is definitely not going blue from emigration or immigration, if anything, many of the newcomers become more conservative than they were when they lived in blue states.
The question is why did all these blue states become red in the 2014 elections
Post 2014 elections
"Republicans control 68 legislative chambers and Democrats control 30
Republicans ran the table, taking the majority in 11 legislative chambers previously held by Democrats.
Those chambers were:
Colorado Senate
Maine Senate
Minnesota House
Nevada Assembly
Nevada Senate
New Hampshire House
New York Senate
New Mexico House
Washington Senate
West Virginia House
West Virginia Senate (after Democratic Senator Daniel Hall switched his party affiliation to Republican)
For governors, Republicans netted three after switching seats in Arkansas, Illinois, Maryland and Massachusetts. Democrat Tom Wolf won a governorship in Pennsylvania that had been held by a Republican."
I don't see Pennsylvania as a "swing" state in presidential elections anymore, and the only way it'll ever be in play again is if the Republican Party becomes more welcoming to political moderates like it was before 1994. Pennsylvania has long been a who's-who of moderate Republicans such as Hugh Scott, Raymond P. Shafer, Richard Thornburgh, John Heinz, Tom Ridge, Arlen Specter and Jim Gerlach, among others, and has historically been one of the strongest bastions of "Rockefeller Republicanism" in the United States. Even today, there are six Pennsylvanians in the U.S. House of Representatives who are part of the moderate Main Street Partnership, including Ryan Costello, Charlie Dent, Mike Fitzpatrick, Mike Kelly, Pat Meehan and Tim Murphy. Many of the states that Pennsylvania erroneously has its political climate compared to have barely any legacy of moderate Republicanism (if any at all), and the moment the Republican Party alienated its moderates, it forfeited Pennsylvania during presidential elections.
Taking Pennsylvania's place on the "swing state" map will be North Carolina.
It is interesting how almost all states that have begun trending a different direction or become swing in the presidential elections since 2000 (Florida, North Carolina, New Hampshire, Virginia, etc.) have all swung leftward. Not a single (that I can think of) state has trended rightward. Could this be the demographic shift that could slowly kill the GOP eventually?
That's only true if you look at elections since 2000. Back in the 1990s states like Louisiana, Arkansas, Missouri, Kentucky, and West Virginia were still competitive for Democrats. They tilted to the right in 2000, but have continued to get more conservative since. Indeed, Democrats controlled most of the state governments here back in 2000, but now are completely shut out, besides a very narrow majority in the Kentucky House.
Republicans also benefit from the gerrymandering in many states (particularly PA, OH, MI, and WI), along with the low turnout levels of the new Democratic base in midterm elections. But there's really no evidence outside of the "Upland South" and Appalachia that any major portion of the country is shifting rightward.
Latest polls say Hillary Clinton would lose by as many as 9 points in Colorado and Iowa to Bush, Walker and Rubio. Unless the democrats get a better candidate it may be a big victory for republicans but republicans certainly always find a way to find the worst candidates. jeb or hillary is a depressing choice
I think the interesting thing is which state will still be considered blue states after these last elections and the 2016 ones
Latest polls say Hillary Clinton would lose by as many as 9 points in Colorado and Iowa to Bush, Walker and Rubio. Unless the democrats get a better candidate it may be a big victory for republicans but republicans certainly always find a way to find the worst candidates. jeb or hillary is a depressing choice
The thought of this makes my face hurt.
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