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I don't think so, but I say that thinking that technology (thinking) will always be necessary and prominent, whereas industry, although very necessary, can be outsourced. I suppose tech can be outsourced too though....
The Coastal Pacific is beautiful, has nice weather, and is in the epicenter of excellent schools. The Rust Belt is ugly, has terrible weather and has average schools. Smart people with money will chose to live in nice places, given a choice.
There is nothing appealing about the rust belt aside from employment, and as that has dried up. People will always want to live in Coastal California, even with a difficult cost of living.
Epicenter of excellent schools? You mean collegiate or elementary as well?
There is plenty appeal to the Rust Belt, but not if your needs are strictly vain.
I don't have statistics on this (though they could easily be acquired) but I don't think tech jobs in SF, SJ, Seattle, etc. are anywhere near the percentage of total jobs that manufacturing/industry used to be in Detroit, Pittsburgh, Cleveland, Philly, etc. Tech is the "main industry" in these areas because it is so important to the current global economy and because the jobs are so high-profile and high-paying, but the vast majority of the workforce does things in no way related to tech. Sure a tech collapse would ripple through the rest of the economies, but I don't think it would be anything like what happened in the Rust Belt simply because there is far less of the all-your-eggs-in-one-basket type of thing in SF, Seattle, etc.
Highly paid tech workers, or highly paid workers in general, tend to bring cost of living problems wherever they go. Look at Williston, North Dakota, Portland, Oregon and Austin, Texas.
Even if they keep moving to low cost areas, they'll eventually realize that they can't run from the housing costs they jack up.
I know the Tech Belt isn't a real term but for these purposes let's use it.
When industrialization thrived in the Midwest and Northeast during the first half of the 20th century, cities like Detroit, MI were booming and desirable places to live. Now it is in urban decay as the automobile industry saw outsourcing overseas and deindustrialization came about. This is not exclusive to Detroit but also countless other Midwestern cities.
My question is that when technology is either outsourced or radically altered will the current "hot cities" like Seattle end up like Detroit, etc.? The risk of an earthquake on the West Coast is also a factor. What do you think?
I see a couple of issues here.
1. What exactly is going to replace the tech industry as the next "it" part of the economy in your mind? As I see it, the only way we see mass tech unemployment is if there are basically no jobs left at all - if everything has been outsourced or replaced by programming or robots. I say that because if computers become smart enough to self-service and develop more advanced versions of themselves, they almost certainly could complete virtually any other task we put in front of them (law, medicine, graphic design, engineering, etc.) In that case there would be no real migration out of the "Tech belt" because everywhere would be in essentially the same shape - no work to do because the robots took it all.
2. Tech as we understand it is absorbing a continually higher proportion of work. Look at what's happening with the car industry as automated driving systems are being developed. Or at how Amazon is moving into a system with online shopping, robot-staffed warehouses, and (eventually) drone delivery. While the absolute number of workers may not be increasing, the amount dealing with tech in some way is rapidly rising.
3. For the most part, tech workers are very different demographically than the manufacturing workers which were recruited 100 years ago. They are a lot more educated and geographically mobile. Therefore you won't see similar dynamics, where, without other job options, the tech workers stay laid off in their cities and become an underclass. They will move elsewhere for work, and have relatively good job opportunities compared to someone who didn't have an advanced degree.
Just based on weather and location, I don't believe the West Coast will ever just go full on bust mode.
They are however currently set up to be in a dangerous situation with how high the COL has been getting. It's fine now, but if we have some kind of economic hiccup, the housing market is going to be in huge trouble. All of those Million dollar homes wont be sustainable at that price if companies stop hiring or move else where.
I could see a stagnation period of a decade or so when home values and the population get to how it was in say...2013. But whatever industry is the next big thing will start migrating to the bay area anyway. The bay area will always be a place for the most prestigious of companies and industries.
Just like manufacturing, one day the majority of the population will be in tech jobs. So while tech cities and jobs seem like income inequality now, in theory it should catch up and become the norm for the rest of the country....hopefully...one day.
likely no as the areas have well educated populaces. The education is portable to other industries etc.
A lot of what happened with rust belt cities was large populations that were not suited or portable to other jobs when the bottom fell out of manufacturing. While tech could change the educated workforce is more portable to other industries. Could they fall from their well doing times, yes but don't see the bottom falling out of the places.
Also the loss of the manufacturing jobs and then resultant unemployment without an educated base left areas that spiraled and were unable to recover and still in many instances have not.
The dynamic is different IMHO, so no though they likely cant sustain the booms forever as they are today
They may "cool off," but these cities are the home of the biggest stockpile of intellectual capital the world has at this time. That's not going away overnight.
People mentioning that tech is an evolving and changing industry seem to be missing the point -- so is virtually every industry that was in the rust belt. heavy industry is still high tech, just a different type. the industries didn't disappear- they moved, largely overseas. there are more cars made now than ever before in history. there is more metal processed and formed into material and product now, than ever before in history. they moved largely because it became cheaper to produce them in other places. I think the same thing could happen in high tech areas that make up the software industry in the US, and I think we are in the early phases of it now with outsourcing.
Not making a prediction of whether it continues, or at what pace, but there will be more and more competition throughout the globe in the future, both in terms of costs and talent.
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