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Old 10-02-2016, 01:19 PM
 
Location: Lone Mountain Las Vegas NV
13,265 posts, read 4,996,176 times
Reputation: 5837

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Quote:
Originally Posted by nei View Post
Murder rate isn't a good way to measure chance of getting murdered; murder is highly non-random. Most murders are between people who know each other or at least in the same social circle.
Neighborhood murder rates are likely quite indicative of the possibility of being murdered. Zip code ones less so. But at the zip code level these rates in a single city will differ more than 1000X. At that point the rates become significant even though they are very imprecise predictors.

By the time you get to cities or states they have likely become meaningless. I suspect the upper middle class suburbs virtually everywhere are about the same. Ethnic ghetto areas however vary a lot. In Las Vegas for instance the violent neighborhoods are driven more by drugs than by ethnicity or even poverty.
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Old 10-02-2016, 01:35 PM
 
Location: Westminster/Huntington Beach, CA
1,780 posts, read 1,253,887 times
Reputation: 1196
Quote:
Originally Posted by Simpsonvilllian View Post
you have greater chance of being murdered if you are around more murderers.
Unless there are more people under the same risk. This logic really only works assuming you are the sole person that the murderers would go for.
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Old 10-02-2016, 02:55 PM
 
Location: Greenville SC 'Waterfall City'
7,977 posts, read 4,114,289 times
Reputation: 3042
Quote:
Originally Posted by NativeOrange View Post
Unless there are more people under the same risk. This logic really only works assuming you are the sole person that the murderers would go for.
your logic make no sense. it is like saying you would rather be in a lake with 1700 sharks than a lake with 40 sharks, if there are more people in the lake with 1700 sharks. the risk that you are attacked by a shark is much higher in the lake with 1700 sharks regardless of the number of people in the lake.
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Old 10-02-2016, 03:50 PM
 
Location: Westminster/Huntington Beach, CA
1,780 posts, read 1,253,887 times
Reputation: 1196
Quote:
Originally Posted by Simpsonvilllian View Post
your logic make no sense. it is like saying you would rather be in a lake with 1700 sharks than a lake with 40 sharks, if there are more people in the lake with 1700 sharks. the risk that you are attacked by a shark is much higher in the lake with 1700 sharks regardless of the number of people in the lake.
I get what you're saying, but it's too basic of an analogy in this sense.

Lake 1: 1700 sharks and let's say 5,000 people = 34 sharks (murders)/100 people.

Lake 2: 40 sharks and 100 people = 40 sharks (murders)/100 people.

Now both lakes are pretty dangerous in this scenario, but you still have a higher chance of being murdered by a shark in lake 2. I'll take lake 1.

Now if I were alone in a lake full of sharks, I would obviously pick lake 2.
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Old 10-02-2016, 04:01 PM
 
Location: Lone Mountain Las Vegas NV
13,265 posts, read 4,996,176 times
Reputation: 5837
See if this helps.

Our next up murderer is on the prowl in your neighborhood. He is going to commit one act of random violence. The neighbor population is out and about.

Would you prefer to be in a neighborhood with 10,000 to pick from or one with 100 people to pick from?

I think you would much rather be with the 10,000...
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Old 10-02-2016, 04:08 PM
 
Location: Westminster/Huntington Beach, CA
1,780 posts, read 1,253,887 times
Reputation: 1196
Quote:
Originally Posted by lvmensch View Post
See if this helps.

Our next up murderer is on the prowl in your neighborhood. He is going to commit one act of random violence. The neighbor population is out and about.

Would you prefer to be in a neighborhood with 10,000 to pick from or one with 100 people to pick from?

I think you would much rather be with the 10,000...
There you go. Since crime rates are "normalized" in a sense from raw numbers, it makes sense to compare a single murderer to the population. Raw numbers have their merits, but they don't accurately portray how "safe" an area is.
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Old 10-02-2016, 04:18 PM
 
Location: Greenville SC 'Waterfall City'
7,977 posts, read 4,114,289 times
Reputation: 3042
ok, most people are going to take the lake with less sharks though.
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Old 10-02-2016, 04:32 PM
 
48,586 posts, read 45,746,257 times
Reputation: 15465
Quote:
Originally Posted by Simpsonvilllian View Post
ok, most people are going to take the lake with less sharks though.
If the lake with less sharks has more attacks per capita, then the sharks are obviously more aggressive.
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Old 10-02-2016, 04:35 PM
 
48,586 posts, read 45,746,257 times
Reputation: 15465
Quote:
Originally Posted by TyVincente View Post
in Louisiana ! whoa, must be the black on black in New Orleans ?? geez
Louisiana is considered one of the most dangerous places for African-Americans. Louisiana has one of the highest Black murder rates in the USA. Missouri is like that too. Missouri ranks #2 in Black murder rates behind Indiana.
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Old 10-02-2016, 04:42 PM
 
48,586 posts, read 45,746,257 times
Reputation: 15465
This is the deal with California and Florida vs Alaska and South Carolina. CA and FL might have a high raw number of murders. However, with a large amount of people and alot of places to go to, it is easier to minimize you chance of getting murdered. South Carolina and Alaska have smaller populations. Not as many places to go to. Few people, fewer communities. Fewer communities, fewer places to go to in order to minimize your chances of getting murdered.

Take St. Louis vs Chicago. Chicago has a high raw number of murders. A city of 2.7 million people. But St. Louis has a smaller land area and less people. In a smaller land area, there are not as many places to hide. A gang member from St. Louis said that in St. Louis, what makes it so dangerous is that you're enemy is very close by. All the other guy has to go is get the gun and walk around the corner.

It would be interesting to see the geographic distribution of murders in each state.
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