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thus, you are more likely to get murdered in California
No. "Likelihood" is another way of saying "probability." Probability means incidents per unit of population. In this case, murders per 100,000. It's more probable to get murdered in Alaska than California.
To put it another way, imagine if you had a normal six-sided die. If you roll 1 through 5, you're fine. But if you roll 6, you're dead. So your odds of death are 1 out of 6. Now imagine that you have a 100-sided die. On this die, 5 different surfaces result in death if you roll them. That's 4 more death surfaces than the first die. But, since it is 5 out of 100, your chances of rolling for death are only 1 out of 20, rather than 1 out of 6.
It's true that all things considered, if you are in a place with a higher population density, the average person will see more people in the course of the day. This raises your chance of seeing a murderer versus living in an out-of-the way rural area, even if the overall murder rate is the same.
However, a chance of seeing a murderer isn't the same thing as a chance of being murdered. The latter can be estimated fairly well just by the odds. How dense an area is doesn't play a role at all. Most people who are murdered are killed by someone they know anyway, not a stranger.
the probability you get murdered is increased by an increase in the number of criminals in your area. you cannot deny this
there is no such thing as a 'murder rate'. you are abritarily deciding to compare number of murders to the number of people. there is no reason that you have to do this. that ratio does not tell you anything about your chances of being murdered. it is basic logic that the way to mizmize your chance of being murder is to live near less criminals. Alaska only has 2 percent of the murders of California, thus is much more safe. the populuation denisity is also much lower so you have less chance of interacting with the criminals that do exist.
the probability you get murdered is increased by an increase in the number of criminals in your area. you cannot deny this
there is no such thing as a 'murder rate'. you are arbitrarily deciding to compare number of murders to the number of people. there is no reason that you have to do this. that ratio does not tell you anything about your chances of being murdered. it is basic logic that the way to minimize your chance of being murder is to live near less criminals. Alaska only has 2 percent of the murders of California, thus is much more safe. the population density is also much lower so you have less chance of interacting with the criminals that do exist.
It's true in denser places there will be a larger number of criminals. But there is also a much, much higher number of potential victims.
Let's say, for the sake of argument, that all murders are random. In one state there are 500 murderers and 500,000 potential victims. In the other state there are 5,000 murderers and 50,000,000 potential victims. The murder rate in the first state should be 10 times higher. The bigger state has 10 times as many murderers, but 100 times as many potential victims. It's thus safer, because even though there are more killers on the street, the chances are much higher they will pick someone else besides you.
you can go by number of murders. 40 murders in Alaska is a lot less murders than 1700 in california. you are more likely be be murdered in a state that has hundres of murders more than another.
Location: Chapel Hill, NC, formerly NoVA and Phila
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Simpsonvilllian
you can go by number of murders. 40 murders in Alaska is a lot less murders than 1700 in california. you are more likely be be murdered in a state that has hundres of murders more than another.
Population of Alaska - 738,432 minus 40 murders = 738,392 safe, non-murdered people in Alaska
Population of California - 39,144,818 minus 1700 murders = 39,143,118 safe, non-murdered people in California.
Therefore, California is safer because you are more likely to be safer in a state that has millions more non-murdered people than another.
No. "Likelihood" is another way of saying "probability." Probability means incidents per unit of population. In this case, murders per 100,000. It's more probable to get murdered in Alaska than California.
To put it another way, imagine if you had a normal six-sided die. If you roll 1 through 5, you're fine. But if you roll 6, you're dead. So your odds of death are 1 out of 6. Now imagine that you have a 100-sided die. On this die, 5 different surfaces result in death if you roll them. That's 4 more death surfaces than the first die. But, since it is 5 out of 100, your chances of rolling for death are only 1 out of 20, rather than 1 out of 6.
Same principle with murder rates.
Murder rate isn't a good way to measure chance of getting murdered; murder is highly non-random. Most murders are between people who know each other or at least in the same social circle.
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