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Old 11-02-2016, 01:58 PM
 
3,955 posts, read 3,487,388 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by rnc2mbfl View Post
I'm following your back and forth on this topic and I am curious why you think that they can't be combined in the future. It just doesn't make sense for a stake to be put in the ground at a single point in time and then say that it doesn't change or get redefined in the future. The Census and Office of Management and Budget have to re-look at the big picture every ten years following the official decennial Census and I'd think that all possibilities would be on the table.
I've thought about this too. Even though there is no separation between the UA's of Raleigh and Durham, and they really are one city,. There are 2 cores pulling commuters in 2 different directions. It would seem that the statisticians place a great deal of emphasis on each core being separate when there are 2 distinct core cities in a Metro/CSA. The same is true of San Fran and San Jose.


Personally I wish they would go back to the Metro Definitions of the 1990's which seemed to make the most sense to me. Most of these questionable designations like Raleigh/Durham, and the Bay area were combined into one region and there wasn't any of this CSA nonsense(and no one was under the insane delusions that San Bernadino and Riverside actually anchor a 4million person metro area). People need to keep in mind these separations are only statistical and have little to no bearing on the cohesiveness of a region. But when you have a website full of people who manipulate numbers to fit their narrative( no matter how insignificant) It tends to seem like it matters a great deal more than it should.
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Old 11-02-2016, 02:35 PM
 
29,891 posts, read 27,333,728 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by rnc2mbfl View Post
I'm following your back and forth on this topic and I am curious why you think that they can't be combined in the future. It just doesn't make sense for a stake to be put in the ground at a single point in time and then say that it doesn't change or get redefined in the future. The Census and Office of Management and Budget have to re-look at the big picture every ten years following the official decennial Census and I'd think that all possibilities would be on the table.
Anything could happen in the future; I'm saying that I don't think under current rules that UAs are allowed to be combined. There are already contiguous UAs that are still considered separate from each other.

I came across this which helps to shed light on the situation:

criteria for merging and splitting urban areas were modified to ensure that any Census 2000 urbanized area will continue to be separately identified as an urbanized area for the 2010 Census, provided that the area still has a population of at least 50,000;

https://www.census.gov/geo/reference/ua/uafaq.html

So it appears that urban clusters (under 50K) can be "absorbed" by urbanized areas under current rules, but urbanized areas themselves aren't allowed to merge at this time.
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Old 11-02-2016, 04:07 PM
 
Location: South Beach and DT Raleigh
11,810 posts, read 18,792,885 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Mutiny77 View Post
Anything could happen in the future; I'm saying that I don't think under current rules that UAs are allowed to be combined. There are already contiguous UAs that are still considered separate from each other.

I came across this which helps to shed light on the situation:

criteria for merging and splitting urban areas were modified to ensure that any Census 2000 urbanized area will continue to be separately identified as an urbanized area for the 2010 Census, provided that the area still has a population of at least 50,000;

https://www.census.gov/geo/reference/ua/uafaq.html

So it appears that urban clusters (under 50K) can be "absorbed" by urbanized areas under current rules, but urbanized areas themselves aren't allowed to merge at this time.
I'm hearing you but I also read that to mean that decisions made then were for that year's designations. Nothing is said about how they will address the designations in the future. Like MSAs and CSAs, they can adjust over time and one a ten year schedule. All in all, I think it's a fair a topic as any to discuss and speculate. After all, speculation seems to be a big "favorite" here on the forums.
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Old 11-02-2016, 04:16 PM
 
Location: Downtown & Brooklyn!
2,112 posts, read 1,304,477 times
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I think Baltimore-Washington will combine sometime soon for sure. I always kind of thought of them as one urban area, or at least close enough to it.

On a more long-term basis, what does everyone thing about NYC-Philly? Obviously they will not combine by 2020, but maybe sometime in the future? I live in NYC and have a lot of family in Philly and in Jersey, so I make the trip back and forth frequently, and also spend a lot of time in the middle, in Jersey. This is something that I've thought about quite a bit.

Edit: I should also add that I've even lived in South Jersey for a few years

Ok so first of all, the city limits are stupidly close. I think Northeast Philly to Staten Island is something around 50 miles or so (Ed: 46 miles. Thanks KidPhilly), and the city centers (Manhattan to Center City Philly) are around 80 miles apart.

Parts of central Jersey are weird because there's no definite dividing line between Philly area of NJ and NYC area, so you get some areas that could be either one. For example: Giants fans and Eagles fans, NYC news stations and Philly news stations, People that commute to Philly and people that commute to NYC. Obviously NYC has much more influence though, so I feel like this area is actually farther South than most people think (i.e. NYC influence closer to Philly)

Philly metro is cut short because of NYC. For example, Trenton NJ is considerably closer to Philly than it is to NYC, but it's considered part of the NYC metro area. Even Philly's own public transit system (SEPTA) goes to Trenton, meaning technically, Philly's public transit system extends into the NYC metro.

Also, there are many people in the immediate Philly suburbs and even in Philly itself that commute to NYC for work everyday.

There's also New Jersey Transit, which is a public transit company that extends not only to both metros but also into both cities themselves

Now on the opposing side: Philly is one of the biggest cities in the US (5th) and metro areas (7th, even with NYC cutting it short) so it is definitley big enough to have its own urban area.
Other than the gray area in Central Jersey, the Philly metro definitely has its own distinct feel than the NYC metro, and Philly also has its own 4 major league sports.

Just to be clear, I'm not trying to argue that NYC and Philly could be a possibility in 2020, or anytime in the near future, but maybe someday, a long time from now. As someone that is familiar with both metros, I have thought about this and I want to see what other people think. With advancements in technology and transportation, it is likely that we may see more people commuting from Philly to NYC, especially as NYC continues to get more expensive. It's only about an hour and some change on the Amtrak Acela Express between the two cities. Imagine if we ever get a High Speed rail between the two, similar to what they have in Asia.

Last edited by That_One_Guy; 11-02-2016 at 05:34 PM..
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Old 11-02-2016, 04:25 PM
 
Location: The City
22,331 posts, read 32,143,293 times
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NYC and Philly already meet a CSA connection technically


the Census already published a position paper that the two UAs do in fact already connect from Wilmington DE to Bridgeport CT - they elected to keep them separate as they felt it was just to large of an area and have three main UAs with NYC, Philly and Trenton in the middle all left as distinct for reporting purposes


Oddly Trenton is in the NY CSA and is part of the Philly OMB Planning area


Also many areas of grey in between I spend a lot of time in the Plainsboro/Princeton area for work the office I go to has many Eagles and Giants fans (interesting week as they play Sunday) and many people commute there from both Manhattan or BK or Queens as well as from Philly


the areas do overlap functionally already in the middle


Staten Island and NE Philly are 46 miles at their closest points or the minimum distance between city propers


They also both share much media and their Six Flags is about in the middle FWTIW


doubt they will connect as the two ends are very large and pretty independent but they definitely have a lot of overlap in the middle
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Old 11-02-2016, 04:39 PM
 
Location: Downtown & Brooklyn!
2,112 posts, read 1,304,477 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by kidphilly View Post
NYC and Philly already meet a CSA connection technically


the Census already published a position paper that the two UAs do in fact already connect from Wilmington DE to Bridgeport CT - they elected to keep them separate as they felt it was just to large of an area and have three main UAs with NYC, Philly and Trenton in the middle all left as distinct for reporting purposes


Oddly Trenton is in the NY CSA and is part of the Philly OMB Planning area


Also many areas of grey in between I spend a lot of time in the Plainsboro/Princeton area for work the office I go to has many Eagles and Giants fans (interesting week as they play Sunday) and many people commute there from both Manhattan or BK or Queens as well as from Philly


the areas do overlap functionally already in the middle


Staten Island and NE Philly are 46 miles at their closest points or the minimum distance between city propers


They also both share much media and their Six Flags is about in the middle FWTIW


doubt they will connect as the two ends are very large and pretty independent but they definitely have a lot of overlap in the middle
Very well said!

I don't expect them to connect anytime soon, but I do see the overlap between them growing greater in the future
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Old 11-02-2016, 05:01 PM
 
Location: Brooklyn, New York
3,735 posts, read 3,847,195 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by kidphilly View Post
NYC and Philly already meet a CSA connection technically


the Census already published a position paper that the two UAs do in fact already connect from Wilmington DE to Bridgeport CT - they elected to keep them separate as they felt it was just to large of an area and have three main UAs with NYC, Philly and Trenton in the middle all left as distinct for reporting purposes
Correct. Both NYC-Philly and San Francisco-San Jose technically meet the criteria for the same UA, even in 2010 census, but they were separated on purpose by the census to keep the areas distinct. It was a special ruling that does not apply to any other UAs in the country.
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Old 11-02-2016, 11:02 PM
 
Location: Seattle WA, USA
3,929 posts, read 2,211,473 times
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I don't know about UA, but I think for metro areas that Seattle and Olympia might combine, as well as Spokane and Coeur d'Alene
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Old 11-02-2016, 11:08 PM
 
Location: Cincinnati(Silverton)
1,584 posts, read 2,381,867 times
Reputation: 656
Here is the criteria. This may change by 2022 though.

https://www2.census.gov/geo/pdfs/ref..._2010uadif.pdf
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Old 11-02-2016, 11:37 PM
 
79 posts, read 78,071 times
Reputation: 71
How are Raleigh and Durham not already counted as one?
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