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Old 11-12-2016, 08:29 PM
 
Location: Virginia Beach
4,214 posts, read 2,842,150 times
Reputation: 4507

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This thread was inspired by the city and metro murders thread in CvC. I thought this would be a good idea to get a grasp on the historical data for most dangerous cities. First, a disclaimer:

-this thread largely consists of principal or anchor cities of one million-plus metros. Obviously, there are a number of smaller cities that meet the threshold but I'm keeping it to the largest cities...
-these lists show the cities by decade that had a comprehensive murder rate above 20 per 100,000 for an entire decade...
-where applicable, I used the FBI numbers as they are consistent for everyone. There isn't enough data to compile for the 70s on backwards, and it took some digging for cities pre-1995...
-I wanted to document the trends of murders from the beginning of the War On Drugs era (1971), which would coincide with the 70s decade, but crime information for cities is scant...
-if you see a city present in one era but absent another, it's because there wasn't enough information to compile a decade-long rates...

I think it generates discussion on how far crime in the US has come down. It also clears up perceptions on specific cities and their crime reputations. Last, I come to the conclusion that amongst large cities, Detroit and New Orleans are the worst cities in this nation...

2010-2015
New Orleans: 173/46.97
Detroit: 325/44.92
St. Louis: 140/43.01
Baltimore: 238/37.93
Newark: 98/35.14
Birmingham: 63/29.37
Oakland: 96/23.70
Kansas City: 100/21.36
Cincinnati: 62/20.42
Cleveland: 80/20.04

2000-2009
New Orleans: 215/55.75
Detroit: 378/41.1
Baltimore: 262/40.66
St. Louis: 128/36.70
Washington: 206/35.88
Richmond: 69/34.64
Birmingham: 80/33.88
Newark: 83/29.81
Oakland: 104/25.96
Atlanta: 119/25.88
Philadelphia: 340/22.93
Kansas City: 103/22.89
Hartford: 27/21.77
San Bernardino: 42/21.06
Memphis: 137/20.67
Rochester: 44/20.40
Cincinnati: 65/20.12

1990-1999
Washington: 381/67.33
New Orleans: 312/63.20
Richmond: 116/57.43
Detroit: 514/51.30
St. Louis: 195/51.05
Atlanta: 185/45.76
Baltimore: 319/44.72
Birmingham: 118/44.67
Bridgeport: 45/32.57
Oakland: 123/32.56
Newark: 86/31.82
Dallas: 310/29.60
Chicago: 820/29.11
Kansas City: 128/29.22
Memphis: 180/28.69
San Bernardino: 49/26.63
Philadelphia: 407/26.42
Cleveland: 124/25.20
Buffalo: 77/24.43
Fort Worth: 112/24.03
Miami: 91/23.81
Norfolk: 58/23.34
Milwaukee: 142/22.87
Los Angeles: 779/22.08
Rochester: 50/21.80

1980-1989
Detroit: 592/50.55
Atlanta: 200/49.77
Miami: 151/42.96
St. Louis: 181/42.29
New Orleans: 212/40.31
Washington: 234/37.68
Richmond: 78/36.99
Newark: 107/36.37
Dallas: 335/34.71
Oakland: 119/33.02
Fort Worth: 135/31.40
Birmingham: 87/31.36
Houston: 494/30.74
Cleveland: 163/30.10
Baltimore: 226/29.60
Los Angeles: 851/26.47
Chicago: 738/25.37
Bridgeport: 36/25.04
New York: 1,682/23.41
Philadelphia: 365/22.63
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Old 11-13-2016, 06:22 AM
 
Location: Virginia Beach
4,214 posts, read 2,842,150 times
Reputation: 4507
Quote:
Originally Posted by murksiderock View Post
-if you see a city present in one era but absent another, it's because there wasn't enough information to compile a decade-long rates...
Let me clarify this statement:

Norfolk, Virginia appears on the list of '90s cities with a decade murder rate of over 20, but doesn't appear in any other decade. I couldn't find enough data for Norfolk for the 70s or 80s, but I found everything I was looking for for the '00s and '10s; it isn't on those decade lists because it didn't average 20/100k...

So, more accurately, cities that don't appear on all decades, means there was decades where information provides they don't fit the threshold of 20/100k. I had trouble finding '70s information for probably 90% of cities, that's why I don't have a '70s compilation....
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Old 11-13-2016, 06:27 AM
 
56,747 posts, read 81,061,259 times
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St. Louis is up there as well.

What makes this interesting is that most are cities that haven't and/or can't annex unincorporated communities/land into to city limits and this may play a part in the historical rates.

You can also see the impact the drug game/War on Drugs on cities during the height of that era.
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Old 11-13-2016, 07:05 AM
 
Location: Virginia Beach
4,214 posts, read 2,842,150 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ckhthankgod View Post
St. Louis is up there as well.

What makes this interesting is that most are cities that haven't and/or can't annex unincorporated communities/land into to city limits and this may play a part in the historical rates.

You can also see the impact the drug game/War on Drugs on cities during the height of that era.
Exactly!

This actually started from a conversation I had back in the summer about how the War on Drugs is/was a catastrophic failure. It is interesting to note how that crusade did more to victimize already disenfranchised areas and inner cities than help them. The 70s and 80s were the most violent periods in modern American history--and by modern, I mean post 1900. Obviously, there's a different complexity to American crime and violence before then, particularly before 1870. But I don't think it's a coincidence that murder and violent crime skyrocketed in the outset of this so called "war", the 70s and 80s....

I was only born in '89, but I know you were around back then. What affects did you see in Upstate New York? I know economic collapse also contributed to higher drug use and stuff. My main focus is how the implementation of drug enforcement, and the imbalance on 'who' was policed and 'where' these things were implemented, has created a reverberating effect here 45 years later...

Add to that the return of sorts in this '10s decade of heroin and the rise of other opiates and prescription drugs, and how those things are correlated to to the increasing violent crime rates in '15 and '16...

St. Louis has always been really high. Seven cities (New Orleans, Detroit, St. Louis, Baltimore, Birmingham, Newark, and Oakland) have all had a 20/100k or greater since the 80s. New Orleans and Detroit have never had a rate less than 40/100k in that time. New Orleans had the highest rate in history among qualifying cities, with a 94.7 rate in '07. New Orleans has the second ('90s) and fourth ('00s) highest decade rate in that time period. Detroit ('90s) has the fifth...

What is also perplexing is how some cities, such as Richmond and DC, have historically been amongst the worst cities but are now below the 20/100k threshold so far this decade. DC had the absolute worst decade ever in the '90s, Richmond had the third worst, and although DC had a bad '15 and Rich is having a bad '16, those two cities have improved dramatically, while cities like St. Louis and Baltimore cant seem to change the culture...
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Old 11-24-2016, 01:00 PM
 
Location: Virginia Beach
4,214 posts, read 2,842,150 times
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St. Louis is definitely one of the worst cities in US history...
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Old 11-24-2016, 08:39 PM
 
922 posts, read 1,018,296 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by murksiderock View Post
St. Louis is definitely one of the worst cities in US history...
Don't know for sure but Atlanta may have been highest on average in the 1960's and 1970's considering that Georgia's rate was the highest on average among states from 1960-1979. What I do know for sure is that Atlanta was the only big city that experienced murder rates exceeding 50 per 100,000 in the 1930's and the 1970's.

Last edited by Aceter; 11-24-2016 at 08:53 PM..
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Old 11-26-2016, 03:21 AM
 
Location: Tupelo, Ms
1,062 posts, read 639,081 times
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I've made a similar thread earlier or last year in regards to total counts. It's in this thread or the City vs City and I tool the deliberaty to go back to the 60s or before. Interesting insight as well.
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Old 11-30-2016, 11:14 AM
 
15,489 posts, read 7,903,178 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ckhthankgod View Post
St. Louis is up there as well.

What makes this interesting is that most are cities that haven't and/or can't annex unincorporated communities/land into to city limits and this may play a part in the historical rates.

You can also see the impact the drug game/War on Drugs on cities during the height of that era.
How are murder rates indicative of trends regarding the War on Drugs?

IMO the War on Drugs only primarily had an impact on incarceration rates, not necessarily murder rates as they were raising steadily even before the War on Drugs began in the 1970s.

Many people consider lead poisoning and the removal of leaded gasoline in the 1970s-1980s to be to blame for both high crime rates (lead in the air/lead poisoning) and the decrease in violent crime that occurred between 1990-2010 (removal of leaded gasoline and more knowledge/action regarding lead poisoning starting in the 1980s).

I personally believe that lead was a huge factor in violent crime and that it being recognized for the poison it was is the main reason why violent crime has decreased.

On the cities on the list, many of them had VERY high rates of lead poisoning, especially in the inner cities. I am much more familiar with Detroit and Detroit due to having lots of freeways going through its inner city neighborhoods for 30-50 years when leaded gasoline was used, would have had much higher concentrations of lead in the city. People do not realize that that lead residue is still in the soil and that this is still a huge issue in inner city communities in regards to soil and old homes with lead paint where young, poor children grow up being affected by the damaging qualities of this poison. The soil contamination especially is something that many people just don't want to pay to remedy as it will be billions of dollars.

I especially fear for the city of Flint, MI in that they already had high crime rates, higher than Detroit in regards to many violent crime rates, and now all the children have been lead poisoned. I wonder what groups are studying them right now and what the outcome will be in 10-15 years for those children.
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Old 11-30-2016, 12:01 PM
 
56,747 posts, read 81,061,259 times
Reputation: 12550
Quote:
Originally Posted by residinghere2007 View Post
How are murder rates indicative of trends regarding the War on Drugs?

IMO the War on Drugs only primarily had an impact on incarceration rates, not necessarily murder rates as they were raising steadily even before the War on Drugs began in the 1970s.

Many people consider lead poisoning and the removal of leaded gasoline in the 1970s-1980s to be to blame for both high crime rates (lead in the air/lead poisoning) and the decrease in violent crime that occurred between 1990-2010 (removal of leaded gasoline and more knowledge/action regarding lead poisoning starting in the 1980s).

I personally believe that lead was a huge factor in violent crime and that it being recognized for the poison it was is the main reason why violent crime has decreased.

On the cities on the list, many of them had VERY high rates of lead poisoning, especially in the inner cities. I am much more familiar with Detroit and Detroit due to having lots of freeways going through its inner city neighborhoods for 30-50 years when leaded gasoline was used, would have had much higher concentrations of lead in the city. People do not realize that that lead residue is still in the soil and that this is still a huge issue in inner city communities in regards to soil and old homes with lead paint where young, poor children grow up being affected by the damaging qualities of this poison. The soil contamination especially is something that many people just don't want to pay to remedy as it will be billions of dollars.

I especially fear for the city of Flint, MI in that they already had high crime rates, higher than Detroit in regards to many violent crime rates, and now all the children have been lead poisoned. I wonder what groups are studying them right now and what the outcome will be in 10-15 years for those children.
Due to violent crime rates peaking in many cities during the Crack epidemic, which also hit inner city neighborhoods hard.

I think a lot of cities have a lead issue that just hasn't been discovered or dealt with in a way that is nationally known.
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Old 11-30-2016, 10:43 PM
 
Location: East Coast of the United States
17,307 posts, read 19,585,657 times
Reputation: 13099
Murder rate statistics don't really tell you anything until you break them down by race, age, gender and income of the perpetrator.

You have to see whether it affects mainstream Americans, not just the underclass of society.
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