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Old 01-03-2017, 08:53 PM
 
Location: Atlanta metro (Cobb County)
1,561 posts, read 744,703 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Taynxtlvl View Post
South Dakota net migration I think is because of the oil industry there and sure jobs. Overall the coastal south and west are winning.
South Dakota's growth has much more to do with its affordable tax structure and general pro-business environment than the oil industry. It is North Dakota that has a large energy sector, and thus growth there with the recent decline in that industry.
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Old 01-03-2017, 10:50 PM
 
Location: Cbus
1,720 posts, read 1,400,744 times
Reputation: 2089
Quote:
Originally Posted by Western Urbanite View Post
I can't imagine why MA, MD, CT, NY, VA, and CA have net outflows. They're some of the richest and most desirable states in the country.
They're also some of the most taxed and highest cost of livings states. Also states like California have certain enclaves of extreme wealth. However, most of LA is probably closer to a working class Mexican neighborhood than it is to Beverly Hills or whatever reality tv leads people to believe.
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Old 01-04-2017, 04:58 AM
 
56,551 posts, read 80,847,919 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Happiness-is-close View Post
Upstate New York is where most of the New Yorkers leave. Their reason is most of the time how cold it is.

Virginia puzzles me too. Not sure why Virginia is losing people.
Weather may play a part, but a lot of it is that those that don't adjust with industry changes, get further education and retirees may leave. Some just leave for something different or due to issues with state government. Some counties grow or stay even and some lose people.

A lot of it is Downstate as well, as may move to adjacent states in the NYC metro area or retire/move to the South.

VA isn't as affordable as people think it is, as even areas like Richmond and the Tidewater/Hampton Roads area can be on par with or even slightly higher than Interior Northeastern areas. Even parts of the I-81 corridor can be similar in this regard and this doesn't get into Northern VA. To be honest, I think NC will be similar soon and may be there already in select areas.

Last edited by ckhthankgod; 01-04-2017 at 05:24 AM..
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Old 01-04-2017, 06:39 AM
 
Location: Pittsburgh, PA (Morningside)
12,416 posts, read 11,917,166 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Happiness-is-close View Post
Upstate New York is where most of the New Yorkers leave.
I'm not sure this is true. Sure, Upstate always posts significant population declines on a whole. But the difference is large numbers of international migrants (along with some domestic transplants) continually replenish NYC. IIRC NYC has had a net outflow of domestic migrants for over a century now, but it just keeps growing and growing.

Quote:
Originally Posted by jas75 View Post
South Dakota's growth has much more to do with its affordable tax structure and general pro-business environment than the oil industry.
I'm not buying it. Kansas instituted "pro-business" tax structures and it's doing horribly now and shedding population more rapidly than anywhere else in the Great Plains.

Quote:
Originally Posted by ckhthankgod View Post
VA isn't as affordable as people think it is, as even areas like Richmond and the Tidewater/Hampton Roads area can be on par with or even slightly higher than Interior Northeastern areas. Even parts of the I-81 corridor can be similar in this regard and this doesn't get into Northern VA. To be honest, I think NC will be similar soon and may be there already in select areas.
It will be interesting to see the county breakdown for Virginia in March. Basically I wonder if the decline is driven by people in the high-cost areas like NOVA moving to lower-cost states, or if it's driven by economic stagnation in the more rural parts of the state.
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Old 01-04-2017, 06:43 AM
 
3,957 posts, read 3,489,082 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by eschaton View Post
I'm not buying it. Kansas instituted "pro-business" tax structures and it's doing horribly now and shedding population more rapidly than anywhere else in the Great Plains.
It would appear that you are asserting that Kansas is doing horribly because of it's pro-business tax structures. Is this what you are saying, or is it incidental? There are several other states with "pro-business" tax structures that are doing just fine, or better than average. There are also several states with traditionally business prohibitive tax structures that are posting declines. I'm not asserting that business tax structure has any impact on domestic, migration. However I would like to understand your narrative here.
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Old 01-04-2017, 07:00 AM
 
Location: Pittsburgh, PA (Morningside)
12,416 posts, read 11,917,166 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by mjlo View Post
It would appear that you are asserting that Kansas is doing horribly because of it's pro-business tax structures. Is this what you are saying, or is it incidental? There are several other states with "pro-business" tax structures that are doing just fine. There are also several states with traditionally business prohibitive tax structures that are posting declines. I'm not asserting that business tax structure has any impact on domestic, migration. However I would like to understand your narrative here.
Kansas is a fiscal mess now because the governor adopted supply-side economics, claiming that big cuts to personal income tax, and even larger cuts to business taxes, would result in more government revenue and higher economic growth. Instead the state racked up huge budget deficits and economic growth was lower than neighboring states. Last I checked he now only has an approval rating of 26%. The state economy is doing so bad that he's actually started burying public reports which conflict with what he projected would have happened to the Kansas economy.

But, as the link I sent along makes clear, it's not so much that the business tax cuts ruined the economy. It's that the budget deficits caused by the business tax cuts busted the budget, which required big cuts to public spending (including spending for K-12 schooling). Although Kansas has historically been a Republican state, it was historically dominated by a moderate faction who was very pro public-education. The gutting of education funding was massively unpopular, which has directly caused many to relocate elsewhere. In addition, the business tax changes were not structured in such a way to actually entice any new businesses to move to the state - they were just giveaways to existing businesses.

I think it's important to consider the "chicken and the egg" issue here. It's commonly assumed that states with pro-business tax structures have economic growth because of those tax structures. But to some extent the inverse could be true as well - states which are doing well economically do not need to ****** with their tax structure, because the existing tax system is meeting all their revenue needs just fine.
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Old 01-04-2017, 07:01 AM
 
998 posts, read 882,051 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by eschaton View Post
I'm not sure this is true. Sure, Upstate always posts significant population declines on a whole. But the difference is large numbers of international migrants (along with some domestic transplants) continually replenish NYC. IIRC NYC has had a net outflow of domestic migrants for over a century now, but it just keeps growing and growing.



I'm not buying it. Kansas instituted "pro-business" tax structures and it's doing horribly now and shedding population more rapidly than anywhere else in the Great Plains.



It will be interesting to see the county breakdown for Virginia in March. Basically I wonder if the decline is driven by people in the high-cost areas like NOVA moving to lower-cost states, or if it's driven by economic stagnation in the more rural parts of the state.
This is a ONE YEAR estimate folks. The rise and fall of population and the census statistics that go with it are OFFICIAL with the ten year census. There are lots of mitigating factors in year to year estimates so it makes more sense to view population loss or growth over a ten year period, thats when the dust settles and one can have a truely analytical discussion of what's going on with the population of any given area.
In the case of Virginia the cuts to DOD, government contracting and sequestration have slammed the Old Dominion. The military branches shuffle active duty personnel in and out of the state all the time, some years more transfer in and other years more transfer out.
The state is one of the more attractive places in the country to live. The quality of life, educational attainment, diversity, natural beauty and an economy successfully transitioning away from government dependence will absolutely prevent it from becoming afflicted with a massive deflowering of population, trust me.
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Old 01-04-2017, 09:15 AM
 
Location: Atlanta metro (Cobb County)
1,561 posts, read 744,703 times
Reputation: 1668
Quote:
Originally Posted by eschaton View Post
I'm not buying it. Kansas instituted "pro-business" tax structures and it's doing horribly now and shedding population more rapidly than anywhere else in the Great Plains.
South Dakota and Kansas have entirely different situations. South Dakota has a very small population, little in the way of declining legacy industries or depressed urban centers, and has had no state income tax for many years. Kansas has enacted recent drastic changes to tax policies that appear to have had adverse recent impacts on state revenues and services.
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Old 01-04-2017, 11:48 AM
 
Location: Pennsylvania
400 posts, read 270,714 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by eschaton View Post
I decided to drill down into the 2016 census population estimates, looking at domestic migration only.

Northeast:
Delaware: 3,027
DC: 2,276
New Hampshire: 2,187
Maine: 2,169
Vermont: -2.865
Rhode Island: - 3,784
Massachusetts: -25,606
Maryland: -26,232
Connecticut: -29,880
Pennsylvania: -45,565
New Jersey: -66,791
New York: -191,367

Midwest:
South Dakota: 981
Minnesota: -1,762
Nebraska: -2,144
Iowa: -3,392
Missouri: -6,250
North Dakota: -6,259
Indiana: -12,135
Wisconsin: -12,395
Kansas: -18,595
Ohio: -27,558
Michigan -27,839
Illinois: -114,144

South:
Florida: 207,155
Texas: 125,703
North Carolina: 59,584
South Carolina: 47,084
Georgia: 36,781
Tennessee: 30,519
Arkansas: 195
Alabama: -684
Kentucky:-3,429
Oklahoma: -3,822
West Virgina: -7,659
Mississippi: -9,690
Louisiana: - 12,243
Virginia: - 25,343

West:
Washington: 67,571
Arizona: 61,544
Colorado: 50,216
Oregon: 50,038
Nevada: 34,575
Utah: 19,778
Idaho: 17,143
Montana: 6,853
Wyoming: -4,357
Alaska: -4,587
New Mexico: -9,748
Hawaii: -10,021
California: -109,023
I added these all twice now and got +210... One would think these would net to zero?
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Old 01-04-2017, 12:23 PM
 
Location: SE Pennsylvania
368 posts, read 268,573 times
Reputation: 340
Not suprised by the Midwest & West.

For Pennsylvania, all those people leaving must be mostly whites. Pennsylvania is a very popular relocation spot for Hispanics (especially Puerto Ricans) and blacks from NY & NJ. In fact, I'd say its possibly the most popular relocation spot for Northeast minorities, only Florida and Georgia can rival PA's popularity. They mainly going to eastern and southern PA.

For the South, im surprised that South Carolina is gaining more people than Georgia and North Carolina, must be some kind of error. And Virginia losing people, damn shame such a beautiful state is losing numbers, kimda surprising as well.
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